Articles

Edison Investment Research today published a report on MediGene entitled "Supportive EndoTAG-1 Data At ASCO". In summary, the report says:

"A Phase II investigator-initiated trial (IIT) of Medigene’s EndoTAG-1 has shown encouraging levels of tumour response in patients with HER2-ve, non-metastatic breast cancer. Best results were observed in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), providing confirmation of positive efficacy trends in a previous Phase II study of EndoTAG-1 in metastatic TNBC, and supporting Medigene’s plans to conduct a pivotal Phase III trial in TNBC. The pivotal study is dependent on securing further partners, so the IIT may be supportive of any ongoing licensing discussions."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Shanks (SKS.L, LSE:SKS, LON:SKS) entitled "Building A Platform For Growth". In summary, the report says:

"Management has taken decisive action to confront market challenges and has developed a clear strategy that will provide a platform for longer-term growth. By fixing Solid Waste, focusing the group on its core markets and growing the Hazardous Waste, Organics and UK Municipal businesses, Shanks will seek to become the leading provider of sustainable waste solutions. Our analysis indicates an average valuation of over 101p/share using a combination of four separate approaches. The current market uncertainty provides an opportunity for those prepared to adopt a longer-term view."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Lookers (LOOK.L, LSE:LOOK, LON:LOOK) entitled "Ahead Of Budget". In summary, the report says:

"Lookers’ performance over the first quarter of 2013 reflects the continued recovery in the UK car market and underlines the strength of the share price since July last year. UK consumer confidence remains fragile, but the positive attitude of the OEMs and the group’s unique position in the aftermarket emphasises Lookers’ strong defensive qualities."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on AGO Energie + Anlagen AG (AGY.L, LSE:AGY, LON:AGY) entitled "Focus On The US Market Opportunity". In summary, the report says:

"Allergy Therapeutics’ investment case hinges on its effort to secure a US partner for Pollinex Quattro (PQ). The company is six months into a licensing campaign, the outcome of which may become apparent later this year. The US allergy immunotherapy (AIT) market is potentially large, but undeveloped. PQ, an ultra-short-course subcutaneous injection, will potentially enter this market after two oral products, Grazax (Alk-Abello/ Merck & Co) and Oralair (Stallergenes), both of which are in regulatory review. Allergy needs to secure a partner to commercialise PQ in the US. We have not included the US PQ opportunity in our valuation. Thus,..."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Blinkx (BLNX.L, LSE:BLNX, LON:BLNX) entitled "Opportunities Remain". In summary, the report says:

"Operational gearing effects are increasingly evident at Blinkx, with FY13 operating margins expanding to 8% (2011: 1%) and strong cash conversion. With significant unexploited inventory and a growing online video audience, the growth story remains compelling. We consider its premium rating to peers as justified."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on quickview entitled "Growth Again In Frame". In summary, the report says:

"2013 should be a year of rebuilding the business, with a major relaunch of the website planned after a year beset by difficulties, both in the markets and particular to the company. The Q1 report shows progress is being made, but is yet to appear in the figures, which show a small operating loss of €47k. The group’s prime asset is the extensive database of global art work transaction values over the last 20 years, but which is not fully reflected on the balance sheet due to accounting rules."

Pre 8 a.m. comments Good morning! Hardly any results today, but lots of IMSs again. A former favourite of mine, which seems to have badly lost its way in recent months is Snoozebox Holdings (LON:ZZZ). I held back on buying the dip, after the recent profits warning, because it seemed to me the company's fundamental business model was seriously under question. So I'm not at all surprised to read their update this morning indicating that the company requires additional capital. I never buy into companies which look like they might need more cash, as the share price can go a lot...

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Neovacs entitled "Moving Forward In Rheumatoid Arthritis". In summary, the report says:

"Neovacs intends to initiate a Phase IIb trial with its lead product TNFα-Kinoid in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The strategy is designed to maintain momentum of the programme while it seeks a partner. The Kinoid approach has potentially significant commercial advantages versus existing anti-TNF products in this large, but highly competitive therapeutic area. The ability to partner this drug, which has also been in Phase II for Crohn’s disease, is central to Neovacs’s investment case. A partnership would be expected to transform its fortunes and allow further development of the IFNα-Kinoid in lupus. We maintain our valuation at €101m, equivalent to..."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Egdon Resources (EDR.L, LSE:EDR, LON:EDR) entitled "Upside Driven By UK Exploration". In summary, the report says:

"Egdon’s upside is driven by its 2013/14 exploration wells, while its modest producing UK assets (9p risked) underpin the current share price. Over the next 18 months, Egdon could drill six wells, generating a RENAV of 23p. Its large portfolio of conventional assets in the Wessex Basin and France could also generate further value in time, while a substantial UK shale position could be transformative if the play continues to be re-risked."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on African Eagle Resources (AFE.L, LSE:AFE, LON:AFE) entitled "Dutwa Project Winding Up". In summary, the report says:

"African Eagle has been unable to source additional funding to develop the Dutwa nickel project. The search for a strategic partner continues, but the Dutwa project company is expected to be wound up. The main nickel asset licences will be retained with only renewal and maintenance expenditure incurred. Asset disposals are being sought to provide funding and senior management departures are expected to reduce operating costs. Cash of £1.15m is expected to provide working capital for six months. Edison suspends its forecasts on African Eagle."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Sigma Capital (SGM.L, LSE:SGM, LON:SGM) entitled "Property Services Driving Growth". In summary, the report says:

"Sigma’s property business is set to deliver large urban-regeneration projects, mainly in partnership with three public sector (Liverpool, Salford and Solihull) and one private client (Edinburgh). Each plans large-scale residential and commercial development over the next 10-15 years. The results confirmed the continued shift in favour of property services as VC Funds is wound down. H2 property revenues were 57% ahead of H1, 143% better y-o-y, reflecting acquisitions and new projects. We forecast further 39% y-o-y growth in FY13, which reflects the scale of the project pipeline and positive news on Edinburgh. The upside hinges on Sigma’s ability to secure..."

Greggs (LON:GRG) is a company well known by most in the UK  - it's a high-street (and increasingly off-high street; we'll come to that later!) baker famed for catering towards the hard value end of the spectrum. It's a sector I admit I have a little experience with personally, and I have often observed that Greggs does a pretty good job differentiating themselves from the rest of the high-street. The 'higher-end' is clustered with faux-authentic pasty outlets and ubiquitous coffee shops, but if you fancy something cheap and relatively warm (don't start this again..) to my mind Greggs is...

Good morning! I'm running a bit late today, as my computer decided to install 15 updates without warning, so apologies for that. Absolutely loads of IMSs (Interim Management Statements) this morning, but most are for FTSE250 companies, so that makes it a bit more manageable for me to just look at the small caps here. Regulars will know that we did very well on Trinity Mirror (LON:TNI) shares last year, when I highlighted the deep value & irrational market price of the company. Even those of us who sold too early more than doubled our money, and people who held...

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Gold Road Resources entitled "Sumitomo Metal Mining JV". In summary, the report says:

"Gold Road has secured a binding exploration JV agreement with Sumitomo Metal Mining. This covers an unexplored area of 2,720km2 south of the Central Bore project within the existing Yamarna tenement holding. The deal potentially adds up to A$8m in exploration funding and provides Sumitomo with up to 50% interest in the project. Clearance surveys of the area are set to commence in May 2013, with drilling targeted by October 2013 subject to soil testing and sub-audio magnetic (SAM) surveys. "

Beating earnings expectations tends to be a sure fire way for companies to hit the financial headlines and get a warm reception from shareholders on results day. For momentum investors with an eye for a surprise, keeping track of these City stars has long been acknowledged as a profitable strategy. Not only that, but a review of London listed stocks that have sprung positive surprises over the past year shows that a number of them also come with potentially attractive valuations.  Why earnings surprises matter  The investment case for earnings surprises isn’t new; academics have been studying the effectiveness of earnings surprise-based...

Edison Investment Research today published a report on quickview entitled "Hearts And Burns". In summary, the report says:

"Cytori has reacquired the rights to its Celution device from the Olympus joint venture. This gives Cytori the full benefit of Japanese sales from H2; these could grow substantially due to government funding. Celution Q1 revenue from the joint venture yielded $1.8m. US government BARDA research contract Q1 revenues were $0.5m. Cytori also had Q113 product revenues of $1.4m, down 6% on Q112. Total sales in 2013 could be over $15m. The Phase II ATHENA chronic heart disease trial reports in H114."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Medicago entitled "Rapid Response To H7N9". In summary, the report says:

"Medicago has produced a virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine candidate for the H7N9 avian flu virus responsible for the current outbreak in China, demonstrating the rapid responsiveness of its vaccine platform compared to conventional production methods. H213 will see important Phase II data from Medicago’s H5N1 and seasonal flu vaccine candidates, offering share price catalysts and potential for supply contract wins and partnerships."

Edison Investment Research today published a report on Simba Energy entitled "Kenya Now, Chad And Guinea Next". In summary, the report says:

"Simba has announced an MoU preceding a farm-out of its Block 2A in Kenya. This definitively funds a projected late-2014 exploration well, gives the market an independent, third party valuation on the block that largely underpins the current share price and will contribute valuable cash for ongoing activities. With Kenya now funded for a well, we look towards Simba’s other main interests in Chad and Guinea. "

Edison Investment Research today published a report on outlook entitled "Specialist Lending Asset Manager". In summary, the report says:

"City of London Group (COLG) has largely migrated from holdings in listed equities (significantly in resources) to being the majority owner of specialist lending platforms, exploiting niche markets where banks have limited appetite to lend. The key platforms provide SME trade finance, SME leasing, lending to professions and litigation funding, with a small unit in legal finance. These businesses manage some investments from COLG, but also are actively attracting third-party mandates. Each independent unit requires specific skills and we expect significant growth from small bases in each case."

Pre 8 a.m. comments Good morning! French Connection (LON:FCCN) shares are priced at a fraction of its own working capital (and it has no debt or pension deficit either), so the (loss-making) business and brand are effectively thrown in for free. The shares are little more than an option on the company turning itself around before it runs out of cash. The market cap is currently 95.9m shares in issue * 31p = £29.7m. FCCN has issued an IMS this morning which overall I would say is more positive than negative - given that the shares are priced to oblivion, and...