Since we cant set up a forum for overseas companies, Im going to set up a thread here for that blasted bird that has caused so much angst to shareholders over the years but is (hopefully) about to stretch its wings and reach for the sky.
I will fill out this starter with some more information when I have the time.
theknight has commented elsewhere:
Good to see you around Flowgo.Your NR assessment was pretty sound. Some of the other postings like those of Vitrik or Silverhound and ph2 unfortunately I disagree with.
Nothing wrong with Falcon Management giving a mandate to Merrill's and/or BMO to make one/two small placements in the Market. One or both would have earned a fee on this goodwill gesture and for those following this stock closely this was an early sign that the Thundering Herd had been asked to come on board.
I don't think neccessarily there is any rift between the 3 j/v partners.Quite the contrary there has been every sign that relationships between the partners has been much improved since December last year when all previous concens were put behind them.
I don't accept either the premise that all the best acreage went into the j/v and Falcon only retained 25% of nothing. Even Exxon have commented in recent times that some of the sweet spots could well be on Falcon's set aside land.
Do I think also that Falcon should enter into a deal with a Shell Oil or a Chevron only on the basis that they Falcon must be the Operating Partner.Come on chaps that was surely a joke. You do not really think that, do you....
Merrills do not accept just any mandate put before them. One off assignments are sometimes considered,very often dependent on size, but in this instance this is clearly not a one off. In fact there is little doubt they would have concluded that there will be a whole series of big ticket assignments for Falcon in the next few years. What is more the opportunity for Merrills to get involved so early in one of the 5 or 6 most exciting energy projects in 2009 in the world would have further enthused them to take on this assignment.
Will Merrills have done their own DD on this assignment first. Yes ofcourse they did. That is standard practise. But it is probably also reasonable to assume that Exxon and Mol's involvement would have added further credibility to this Mako project.
Maybe some of you appreciate it already. Maybe some of you don't. Biggest talk in the industry right now are unconventional plays, particularly those located in Europe and particularly those in Hungary,Slovakia,Slovenia,Romania and Crotia and surrounding areas. In fact there can be little doubt that when the data room is reopened Merrills and BMO will have their hands full very quickly, such will be the level of interest in the project.
Bringing in another partner into the Mako Trough for whole or part of the set aside land and the land subject to an exploration license,alongside Exxon and Mol does also seem very sound strategy. The Market currently attributes little or no value to properties outside the j/v. Changing the Market's perception on this is surely worthwhile. Changing also the current Market view that Falcon inevitably will sell out 1H next year to Exxon (ie accept an early exit before it could become increasingly clear just how great might be the value of Falcon's properties) would also be a big prize for management and shareholders.
Was yesterday's news good news for shareholders? Ofcourse it was. Are we on course for more news in the next few weeks? Little doubt. Can we also expect the shares soon to rally? I think so....actually this is a very high probability. Moreover it could well be that the Board at long last will start to receive increasing respect from the Market for the Company's new strategy after all of the painful problems of the past
In reply to Kissxofxdeath (post #14)
C a u t i o n !
I think this post originated back in early-April. It was subsequently disowned by the original poster 'Oiljack.'
Not surprising given it included this outrageous claim:
This Rotary crew is so good the largest oil company in the world had them on their most imporant well in the country.
ROFL. At best, it sounds like someone's trying to big themselves up. I might just be persuaded that a particular driller might be wanted - maybe, maybe - but the rest of the crew I'd pick out blindfold from a line-up of roughnecks.
SW10
DENVER, Aug 18, 2009 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO) ("Falcon" or the "Company"), a global energy company focused on acquiring, exploring and developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources, today announced the results of the recently completed Ryder Scott Company-Canada Resource Analysis Report ("Report") on the Company's Beetaloo Basin Project in the Northern Territory (NT), of Australia as of July 1, 2009.
Based on all available data, Ryder Scott has prepared an evaluation of the hydrocarbon resource potential pertaining to Falcon's interests in the Beetaloo Basin which consist of four Exploration Permits comprising approximately 28,200 square kilometres (7 million gross acres), covering the majority of the Beetaloo Basin and basin margin highs. Through its wholly owned Australian subsidiary, Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Pty Ltd, the Company owns an undivided 75 percent working interest in the Permits, and is the operator of the Permits.
The Report on the hydrocarbon resource potential of the Beetaloo Basin describes a possible distribution of the unrisked prospective (recoverable) portion of unrisked "Undiscovered in-place Resources," as defined by the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGEH) and does not represent an estimate of reserves or contingent resources. The Report has been prepared in accordance with the Canadian standards set out in the COGEH and is compliant with National Instrument 51-101 "Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities."
Ryder Scott evaluates oil and gas properties and independently certifies petroleum reserve and resource quantities in the U.S., Canada and internationally. Founded in 1937, Ryder Scott is one of the largest, oldest and most respected reservoir-evaluation consulting firms in the industry. Their resource evaluation of the Beetaloo Basin is as follows:
Table 9: Total Undiscovered and Prospective (Recoverable) Oil Resources in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia Unrisked Unrisked Prospective Undiscovered (Recoverable) Reservoir Oil-In-Place Oil Resources (Bstb) (Bstb) Low Best High Low Best High Hayfield 0.049 0.088 0.148 0.005 0.010 0.018 Jamison 8.220 11.920 16.402 0.800 1.337 2.153 Conventional Subtotal 8.269 12.008 16.550 0.805 1.347 2.171 Upper Kyalla Shale Oil 127.4 180.9 256.0 11.3 17.8 27.4 Shale Oil Subtotal 127.4 180.9 256.0 11.3 17.8 27.4 Total Oil Resource Within The Beetaloo Basin 135.67 192.91 272.55 12.11 19.15 29.57 Table 10: Total Undiscovered and Prospective (Recoverable) Gas Resources in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia Unrisked Unrisked Prospective Undiscovered (Recoverable) Reservoir Gas-In-Place Gas Resources (Tscf) (Tscf) Low Best High Low Best High Hayfield (Associated Solution) 0.013 0.025 0.046 0.002 0.004 0.009 Jamison (Associated Solution) 2.041 3.330 5.349 0.313 0.585 1.066 Moroak 0.800 1.437 2.346 0.607 1.048 1.731 Conventional Subtotal 2.85 4.79 7.74 0.92 1.64 2.81 Moroak BCGA 21.00 29.61 40.85 3.18 4.85 7.23 Bessie Creek BCGA 159.4 210.0 275.0 23.8 34.4 49.4 BCGA Subtotal 180.39 239.58 315.81 27.02 39.28 56.64 Lower Kyalla Shale Gas 12.70 15.80 19.20 1.90 2.60 3.50 Middle Velkerrie Shale Gas 94.6 125.1 160.4 14.2 20.4 29.0 Shale Gas Subtotal 107.3 140.9 179.6 16.1 23.0 32.5 Total Gas Resource Within The Beetaloo Basin 290.54 385.27 503.16 44.05 63.91 91.94Tables 9 and 10 from the July 1, 2009 Ryder Scott Report. For a definition of "Low" "Best" and "High," see Section 5 of the Report titled "Definitions of Resources and Reserves," item 5.3.5 titled "Uncertainty Category." The total oil and gas resource is an arithmetic summation of the multiple estimates of the individual reservoir resources. Under Section 5.2 of COGEH: Undiscovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place (equivalent to undiscovered resources) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, on a given date, to be contained in accumulations yet to be discovered. Prospective Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development projects. Prospective resources have both an associated chance of discovery and a chance of development. There is no certainty that any portion of the undiscovered resources will be discovered and that, if discovered, it may not be economically viable or technically feasible to produce any of the resources
Commenting on the Report and the status of operations on Shenandoah #1 well, Marc Bruner, President, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of Falcon Oil and Gas, stated, "We are extremely pleased with the general parameters of the Ryder Scott Report. As we continue to evaluate our data and test our theories regarding the potential of significant hydrocarbon deposits that we believe to be in place in the Beetaloo Basin, the Report helps us to formulate strategic go-forward plans for the region that are in line with the overall goals of our organization. We have entered into a series of service contracts and commenced operations to re-enter, deepen, and test the Shenandoah #1 well in the Basin, which was originally drilled in 2007. With the combination of our own data analysis, the findings of the Report, and the shear magnitude and size of our exploration permits, it is likely that we will seek a partner in this endeavour. The Shenandoah well is the first step in Falcon taking a careful and structured approach to further exploration and development of this resource."
About Ryder Scott
Ryder Scott evaluates oil and gas properties and independently certifies petroleum reserves quantities in the U.S. and internationally. The firm performs several hundred consulting studies per year for a variety of clients. The firm has earned worldwide recognition for reliably predicting the performance of complex oil and gas reservoirs in all major petroleum provinces. With approximately 90 professional petroleum engineers and geoscientists, the firm conducts reserve and resource evaluations, geoscience/geology studies, field development and EOR design, reservoir simulation, economic analysis, management consulting and expert witness testimony. The Houston-based firm has branch offices in Calgary and Denver.
Ryder Scott, by far, is the most widely used consulting firm for preparing annual petroleum reserves certifications for filers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to research firm John S. Herold. Ryder Scott also serves clients listed on the London, Toronto, Hong Kong, Australian, and other stock exchanges.
The firm issues reserves certifications considered to be highly reliable by banks and private investment groups. Major banking institutions establish reserves-based loan amounts, monitor credit lines and determine guarantees based on report values. The report also serves as a resource in screening and due-diligence reviews of acquisitions, divestitures and mergers.
About Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
Falcon Oil and Gas Ltd. is an international oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Denver, Colorado, incorporated in British Columbia, Canada, and trading on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol "FO." The company specializes in the business of conventional and unconventional oil and gas exploration and production and holds interests in prospective properties in Hungary, Romania, and Australia. The company is focused on discovering, acquiring, and maturing a globally diversified portfolio of drilling opportunities with a goal of maximizing shareholder value through strategic relationships. Additional information concerning Falcon Oil and Gas is available at www.falconoilandgas.com. Investor inquiries may be directed to investor@falconoilandgas.com.
In the interests of providing Company shareholders and potential investors with information regarding the Company, including the Company's assessment of its and its subsidiaries' future plans and operations, certain statements included in this press release may constitute forward-looking information or forward looking statements (collectively, "forward-looking statements"). All statements contained herein that are not clearly historical in nature are forward-looking, and the words "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "estimate" and similar expressions are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements. Similarly, forward-looking statements in this press release include, but are not limited to anticipated developments of the Company's various drilling projects and the timing thereof, capital investment levels and the allocation thereof, pipeline capacity, government royalty rates, reserve and resources estimates, the level of expenditures for compliance with environmental regulations, site restoration costs including abandonment and reclamation costs, exploration plans, acquisition and disposition plans including farmout plans, net cash flows, geographic expansion and plans for seismic surveys, or successfully engaging a partner in any of the Company's endeavours. It should be clearly understood that the resource plays evaluated herein are high risk and that there is no certainty that any portion of the undiscovered resources will be discovered and that, if discovered, it may not be economically viable or technically feasible to produce any of the resources. In addition, please note that statements relating to "reserves" or "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves and resources described can be profitably produced in the future. Such statements represent the Company's internal projections, estimates or beliefs concerning, among other things, an outlook on the estimated amounts and timing of capital expenditures, anticipated future debt levels and incentive fees or revenues or other expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions, intentions or statements about future events or performance. These statements are only predictions. Actual events or results may differ materially. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, it cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievement since such expectations are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many factors could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, the Company and the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. These forward-looking statements made as of the date hereof disclaim any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. Company shareholders and potential investors should carefully consider the information contained in the Company's filings with Canadian securities administrators at www.sedar.com before making investment decisions with regard to the Company.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
SOURCE Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd.
At last - XOM has started to Frac Foldeak. Testing is finally upon us.
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS199458+17-Sep-2009+PRN20090917
In reply to djpreston (post #17)
Testing expected soon: Falcon announces XOM
has commenced fracture stimulation and testing
operations at the Foldeak -1 well in the lower part of Szolnok Formation. Each
of the four planned fractures will be evaluated for flowback rates directly
after the operation. Once these fracture stimulations have been completed,
ExxonMobil expects to enter into a test period.
Exxon... has notified the Company of its recommendation to cease operations at the Foldeak-1 well site after testing a portion of the Szolnok Formation. ExxonMobil, MOL and Falcon are discussing next steps regarding such operations.
The upper fracture stimulation at 4,200 meters was completed successfully yielding average gas flow rates of approximately 50,000 standard cubic feet (1,415 cubic meters) per day and average water flow rates of approximately 1,200 to 3,100 barrels (200 to 500 cubic meters) per day over a 46 hour period (the well is flowing as of the date of this press release).
Shares down over 50%
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ExxonMobil-Gives-Notice-To-prnews-3873089191.html?x=0&.v=1
In reply to alano20 (post #19)
average water flow rates of approximately 1,200 to 3,100 barrels (200 to 500 cubic meters) per day
Oof.
From post #10
no science is going to predict how a rock is going to fracture - not even in test wells of supposedly homogeneous Texas Sandstone, so how many will deliver to plan?
Fraccing is a tricky operation, and when the whole model is predicated upon it then the risk has to be factored in somehow...
I see all the forward-looking statements are attributed to Falcon - are XOM saying anything?
SW10
In reply to SW10Chap (post #20)
No, no press release from them. (Too busy in Iraq
An Oil Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the government had formed a commitee to study new or revised bids for fields that were not awarded in June.
He said that Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) had put forward a new bid for Zubair oilfield, while Chevron (CVX.N) and Total (TOTF.PA) had submitted a new offer for West Qurna field.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFL820863520091008?rpc=44 )
Falcon's PR says "ExxonMobil, MOL and Falcon are discussing next steps regarding such operations."
In reply to SW10Chap (post #20)
Morning SW, crappy day for me yday on the FO front.
Nope, no comment from them and the grapevine had been completely silent so this news came as a complete surprise to all us long suffering holders.
I have been able to find out snippits and it woudl appear that XOM decided to do the second frac a level where the Fo geos were opposed to.
Guess its all in the lap of the gods now. Probably enough money in the IWP for some more work though.
Sigh... at least I can say that the gains on other invs like the bank prefs have more than offset this loss. Still hurts though, especially for my pension.....
B***er.
In reply to djpreston (post #23)
I was a bit rushed before and intended to write a little bit more based on the original release and - interestingly in the light of your link above - it seems to have disappeared?
Anyway, here it is on PR Newswire and here are my (intended to be) dispassionate thoughts.
I think the important elements include
For both fracture stimulation tests, the water flowed back was very fresh, less than 5,000 parts per million (ppm) of total dissolved solids
...which suggests that there was no 'contamination' by hydrocarbons and thus that the water was coming from a source unrelated to the gas. This seems to be confirmed by the statement that it
is possible that the matrix Szolnok Formation remains largely untested due to preferential flow from the natural fractures.
In other words, communication with the water-bearing zones is immensely better than communication with the gas-bearing zones above. What we don't know is whether this communication occurs naturally or whether the frac has preferentially opened-up these avenues.
I very much suspect the latter, with the fracs propogating partly downwards rather than radially. In any event, once one of these fractures has communication with (or 'touches,' if you prefer) the water zone then the water can move faster and therefore preferentially into the well compared to the gas which still has to find its way out of the tight pore spaces first.
Testing will have started at the bottom, and Falcon go on to say that they interpret
the intervals above the tested section to be a separate reservoir and a potential sweet spot within the Szolnok Formation.
Adding to the positive-sounding tone, they go on to say
Core data indicates that the permeability of these prospective intervals is considerably higher than permeability measured below. Additionally, net to gross reservoir quality sand is also much higher and logs indicate that the gas saturation may increase upwards through the Szolnok Formation.
OK, then. And just before you can say "well, perhaps they would say that, wouldn't they?" the release quickly mentions that
Pressure in these prospective intervals of the Szolnok Formation is interpreted to be considerably lower than the pressures encountered deeper.
I think they have their work cut out now. They're saying that
Falcon is currently evaluating the remainder of the Szolnok Formation to determine if it is possible to move away from this potential natural fracture system.
...and my question would be; did they know about these natural fractures before? I don't recall reading about them, and so how do they expect to track them now? If they did know, was this ever presented as a risk?
As to the MOL spokesperson saying
We consider Falcon's announcement premature since the testing of the Foldeak-1 well and the evaluation of the test results are ongoing
I don't know if that's really very much different from FO has said, is it?
SW10
News just out that the parties will frac another section of Foldeak:
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/exxonmobil-mol-and-falcon-agree,996779.shtml
In reply to djpreston (post #25)
OK if they succeed, but does this mean Exxon and MOL go home if they find nothing, and what plans can Falcon have then?
This operation will use the remaining balance of the Initial Work Program budget.
In reply to djpreston (post #25)
News just out that the parties will frac another section of Foldeak
Cassandra here :-(
For those who didn't click the link, this essentially a one-line release saying
[The 3 parties] have agreed to fracture stimulate another section in the Foldeak-1 well within the Szolnok Formation
Nothing more. Ok, so logically:
It's difficult for me to imagine it's going to work. Rather, Falcon is like the man at the pub who wants to use the last few quid in the kitty for a pull on the fruit machine and his mates don't have the heart to say no...
SW10
(Just back from the bar myself, since you ask...)
Fun and games at the AGM, which was due to start 5pm today.
First the webcast was cancelled and now it (the AGM) has been adjourned till a new date.
Speculation is that there has been intense discussion behind the scenes by shareholders who were moving to vote against the board. Whether that is true or not I couldnt possibly comment. No doubt more will be forthcoming in the next few days.
New date announced for annual and now Special Meeting
FALCON OIL & GAS ANNUAL AND SPECIAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS DATE SET FOR DECEMBER 22, 2009
Denver, CO, December 10, 2009 -- Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO) (“Falcon” or the “Company”), a global energy company focused on acquiring, exploring and developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources, today announced that the revised date for the Company’s Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders is scheduled for December 22, 2009 at 9:00 a.m. (Pacific) at the Four Seasons Hotel in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
In reply to djpreston (post #29)
.....mmmm....Christmas in Vancouver. That'll be an easy one for UK fund managers to attend - not!
"Special"? Is that the Canadian equivalent of Extraordinary?
ee
I can't resist posting what seems to me to be the best bit of tongue-in-cheek phraseology I have read for a long time, following this announcement that Bruner has stepped down with immediate effect.
http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/159798#ixzz14yqDNDUa
DENVER, Nov. 11 /CNW/ - Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (the "Company" or "Falcon"), an international oil and gas exploration and production company, announces that it has received and accepted the resignation of Marc. A. Bruner from his positions as President, CEO and a Director of the Company. The resignations will be effective immediately.
And the tongue-in-cheek bit (or, at least, I HOPE it's tongue-in-cheek)
Chairman, Dr. Gyorgy Szabo expressed his gratitude to Mr. Bruner on behalf of the board of directors, stating "On behalf of Falcon and the other members of Falcon's board I would like to thank Marc for his years of service to Falcon. His experience and dedication to the Company over the last 5 years has been immeasurable and Falcon would not be where it is today without Marc Bruner. We wish him the utmost success in his future endeavours.".
Hear, Hear !
Acknowledgements to MO33062 on the Fool
Man Siarad
Don't let the door hit you in the arse on the way out Marc.....
Ding dong the witch is dead.....
:-)
