The results are due on 22nd August, FYI.
I've started this thread to centralise comment on expectations and the eventual outcomes.
These might be the most pivotal results in the company's history, though IMO much hangs on whether they include a reserves update with or before the results. They certainly COULD make such an update IMO....but whether they will do so may be a slightly different question, depending on the expected future path of proving up reserves (and perhaps on whether a sale of the Vietnam assets is actually in the offing).
Another matter which surely WILL be addressed at these interims is the prospect of some form of dividend.
I remain of the view that a deal to monetise Vietnam is closer than many seem to expect though, with the emergence (at the AGM) of the connectivity potential at TGT , there is a credible case for delay. I'm also of the view that the price tag on VN will have increased since the AGM, with the start-up of H4 (as indicated by the buy-out of the Vietnam minority, IMO).
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SOCO International plc is an international oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company has oil and gas interests in Vietnam, which includes Block 9-2 and Block 16-1; Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), which includes Marine XI Block and Marine XIV Block, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa), consists of Nganzi block and Block V and Angola, which include Cabinda Onshore North Block. The Company's operations are located in South East Asia and Africa. It holds its interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), through its 85%-owned subsidiary, SOCO Exploration and Production Congo SA (SOCO EPC). It holds its interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) through its 85%-owned subsidiary SOCO Exploration and Production DRC Sprl. Te Giac Trang (TGT) field’s Phase I production began on August 22, 2011. Total production net to its working interest from continuing operations, during the year ended December 31, 2011, were 5,437 barrels of oil equivalent per day. more »
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hi ee,
thanks for starting the new thread. I understand that it was mentioned that two zones in tgt changed in pressure at the same time/rate, I am assuming this means that they are linked, but since they have both been drilled I cannot see how this suggests larger structures, unless we're assuming that perhaps other zones will be linked too ? but how does this help, since to find out if this is the case, won't we need to drill them too ?
re a reserves upgrade, it was suggested at the agm that it would be in the autumn, I guess it could have been a "by the autumn" thing, and if the work has been done, of course it could be in the results,
K
In reply to kenobi, post #1
Hi K,
Re. the reserves mention at the AGM, ES said the fall, and later said September.
fuiseog
In reply to kenobi, post #1
This is the $640 million dollar question - and it all depends on the data. For example, it is perfectly possible to deduce from flow rates (and other measurements) the size of the field that is flowing.....BUT you need to have all the relevant data. I would guess that they would have a good chunk of what they need - but the question here is whether they have (or will shortly have) "enough".....and nobody outside the company can be sure of that.
Will they NEED to drill them? I don't know.
Will they eventually drill them? Certainly - because they will want to optimise production.
My assessment is that they have moved to clean up the minority because they think there is a significant chance of a step-changing reserves assessment quite soon. If they knew for sure that they needed to drill in 2013 before any conclusions could be drawn then surely they'd have let the interest continue to roll up at 9%?
Not long to wait now to get some of the answers to these issues.....
ee
In reply to fuiseog, post #2
...though of course at that same time they were pointing to H4 start-up in late July or August - and in fact started on 6th July.
Not unreasonable to think that the reserves assessment is close at hand - though (as I know from my other hat) these things are never done and dusted until they finally arrive.......and one cannot usually forecast with any accuracy when that might be (so they would be very rash to promise any particular date).
My sense is that they are moving on this as fast as they can.
ee
In reply to kenobi, post #1
I understand that it was mentioned that two zones in tgt changed in pressure at the same time/rate, I am assuming this means that they are linked, but since they have both been drilled I cannot see how this suggests larger structures
The wells where the related pressure changes are reputed to have occured are in different fault blocks (2 and 4). It has been assumed that each well intersected resources in an area around each well, that was within each fault block (you can see the green patches in the relevant slides in recent presentations). If, however, it turns out that zones in H4 are connected to equivalent zones in H2 (or even beyond) that would suggest that the at least some of the resource covers a (much) larger aerial extent than assumed, and so the volume would also be larger. Conceivably by a lot.
Peter
In reply to peterg, post #5
Some might say that this is just pie in the sky .......
(sorry - couldn't resist) ..... ;-))
I guess you meant areal
In reply to emptyend, post #6
I guess I did!
Peter
does anyone know if the Vietnamese assets are in the disputed area in the South China Sea?
Notably China has sent a garrison.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/07/25/uk-china-southchinasea-idUKBRE86O1P520120725
In reply to adam, post #8
No they aren't. All SOCO's assets are within 120km of the Vietnam coast.
Compare:
Interesting to see that all of today's price move and most of the volume was in the last 45 mins of trading.......
In reply to emptyend, post #10
NICE - I did not even notice the rise......I am kinda sleeping at the moment with my Soco holding......Just waiting for something exciting to happen....Which is kinda scary given that it is a large holding for me....
But then again it is easy to hold onto something where the undelying commodity is going up and production is ramping up.....
I expect there will be a lot of eyes glued to screens today. Are we going to see the same low volumes, or a mix of people top slicing while others add?