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Beazley Group - Caught in an Irish Stew?

Monday, Nov 22 2010 by
12
Beazley Group  Caught in an Irish Stew

I do not pretend to have any understanding of economics. I am at a particular loss to understand how so many Western countries have completely mismanaged their finances. It seems as if we've all had boys pretending to be chancellors rather than men actually doing the job properly.

Yesterday's news from Ireland is being reported as a devastating blow to that country's much vaunted reputation for economic dynamism. It sounds as if it has been no more than the froth on top of a badly drawn pint of Guinness. Now the froth has subsided and the glass is revealed as being only half full.

Definitely NOT a work of Genius.

So from my narrow, parochial, selfish point of view, is there anything specific I need to think about? Any action I need to take? Any points I need to take on board?

The most obvious thing for me personally concerns Beazley Group (LON:BEZ) , the specialist Insurance company. I have a long standing interest in Beazley. I have dipped in and out of their shares a few times. I think their business model is very sound, the management team is outstanding, the CEO is extraordinarily good - sharp as a razor, completely straight, very open, hugely energetic. I like their self confidence combined with conservative risk management. I like the drive which has been displayed most recently in their hostile bid for another insurer. In short I hold the company in high esteem. I have been watching and waiting for the right time to re-enter. Next time I buy I envisage taking an ultra long term view of the shares and dropping them into a drawer which I don't re-open for years. (the last couple of times I have sold at a very healthy profit after a very short time for reasons entirely unrelated to my long term expectations of BEZ).

BUT.....You did know there was a but coming, didn't you?

Last year BEZ did some fancy footwork and relocated its business to Dublin for tax purposes. The immediate effect was a reduction in the headline rate of tax from about 28% to about 18%. (I've just tried and failed to validate those numbers so I'm quoting from memory here. Don't rely on my numbers being precise.) That meant that profit after tax rose from 72% of gross profit to 82% - an increase of almost 14%. At the time this was announced BEZ said:

 "The Republic of Ireland enjoys a stable and respected legal, regulatory and tax environment. The changes to our corporate structure should enhance the group's return on capital and competitive position."

You can see what's bothering me, can't you? Is the implosion of the Irish economy going to lead to a substantial change in its tax regime where companies like Beazley are concerned? If Ireland simply upped its tax rates to be on a par with the UK there would be a significant effect on Bez's after tax profits. Maybe they could relocate again to yet another tax haven? But, the truth is that the Irishness of Beazley is a piece of creative blarney. Management remains physically based in London. Board meetings are held in Dublin so directors have to hop across the water for the occasional day trip in order to satisfy the regulators. It's the proximity of Dublin that allows the scheme to work. Belize or Panama might offer similar fiscal advantages but they aren't really doable as a quick afternoon jaunt and home again in time for supper, unless and until RyanAir lays on special flights. Not much of an incentive that idea is it?

I still like Beazley Group (LON:BEZ) an awful lot but until the smoke clears from O'Connell Street or wherever the Irish Treasury is, I'll just keep waiting.


Filed Under: Insurance, Ireland,

Disclaimer:  

The author may hold shares in this company. All opinions are his own. You should check any statements that appear factual and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.


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Beazley plc is a holding company engaged in global specialist risk insurance and reinsurance business. Its segment includes life, accident and death, underwrites life, health, personal accident, sports and income protection risks; marine , underwrites a broad spectrum of marine classes including hull, energy, cargo and specie, piracy, aviation, kidnap and ransom and war risks; political risk and contingency, underwrites terrorism, political violence, expropriation and credit risks; property, underwrites commercial, high-value homeowners and construction and engineering property insurance; reinsurance, specializes in writing property catastrophe, property per risk, casualty clash, aggregate excess of loss and pro-rata business, and specialty lines , underwrites professional liability, management liability and environmental liability, including architects and engineers, healthcare, lawyers, technology, media and business services, directors and officers and employment practices risks. more »

Share Price (Full)
225p
Change
0.5  0.2%
P/E (fwd)
9.4
Yield (fwd)
4.0
Mkt Cap (£m)
1,164



  Is Beazley fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »


1 Comment on this Article show/hide all

ohisay 22nd Nov '10 1 of 1
1

The immediate effect was a reduction in the headline rate of tax from about 28% to about 18%. (I've just tried and failed to validate those numbers so I'm quoting from memory here

Edison did a recent report here on the sector (which I reread last week as after the BEZ bid for Hardy, the Times  mentioned Catlin and Amlin as possible "consolidation" targets)

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/research/cliff-edge-or-knife-edge-insurance-sector-report-45377/
That mentions the tax rate ..

Beazley has reorganised under a parent company resident in the Republic of Ireland. We
anticipate an effective tax rate of c 18% versus a normal 28% in the UK, although the rate will
vary with the geographical spread of profits.

Its a fair question I guess but my sense is its a longer term issue for Ireland and the EU to sort out .I see Sarkozy has said its not a condition of the talks and Cowen has said it hasnt been discussed as a precondition .

Agreeing to an increase short term would be political suicide I'd have thought for the current incumbents and rather counter productive in terms of realising some tax revenues for the Irish over the next few years.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/multinationals-will-exit-if-corporate-tax-rate-jumps-2429217.html

At 114p as a current price I'd not be hanging around - quite good value it seems to me.

If the bailout goes through without any amelioration of the tax rate there might even be a small hike in the price .!


 


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About tournesol

I'm an active private investor specialising in the oil and gas sector. I decided to focus on this area after having a disastrous experience 10 years ago when I naively delegated investment to a "professional" who subsequently lost most of my life savings and my pension. That experience taught me that it was foolhardy to invest in industries/companies you don't understand properly and that many "professionals" are doing just that, often based on the most superficial analysis and the most inadequate understanding of the underlying business. I decided that I'd take my financial destiny into my own hands.   I chose oil as a specialist focus partly because it was the industry I'd spent most of my career in over many years in >25 countries all over the world. That prior experience gave me a good  understanding of E&P from an operational perspective and I've subsequently leveraged that into an appreciation of the sector from an investment perspective - quite a different thing. But the one really helps the other.   I find that my background and my specialist focus help me get access to management and help me talk to them when I get in.  I've been seriously astonished at the open-ness and responsiveness of many top managers in this industry. Sensible questions, asked in a sensible manner almost always receive a very full response. (I have to single out Tom Cross of Dana for his readiness to go the extra mile to help small PI's understand his business).   Of course the other reason I chose to specialise in oil was that ten years ago it was very easy to figure out that the price was going to rise in a sustained manner over a long period. I still find it hard to believe that everybody else didn't see that coming at that time. I certainly can't claim any credit for doing so. It was just too obvious to miss - provided that is you looked at things from the right perspective. (there's an article to be written on this topic when I can find time........) more »



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