I have a mate with some rental property in Sydney so when I saw Mike Shedlock’s piece on Australian property I sent her the link.
Today I saw another article by Ironman at Political Calculation that, if I understood it correctly, says “stand down, the bubble popped in 2004."
I don’t know hardly anything about Australia or their house prices. I went there for ten days in 1988 and met a lot of very hospitable people, placed a bet on the Melbourne Cup and won, that’s about all I remember.
But I think I know a thing or two about bubbles, and although I suspect Ironman’s analysis might be a bit of an oversimplification - you need really to know the number of housing units and take into account the cost of long-money to get to the “fundamental” (Other-Than-Market-Value, in IVS speak). But his chart is probably “good enough for government work”.
I've shown where the line might go if “The General Theory” (of BubbleOmics) is as good as some of the other “General Theories”:
“Trained” as an artist (Leeds), then as a scientist (Cambridge); then spent fifteen years working in design/engineering and project management of technology “stuff”. Then got interested in “micro” markets, building supply/demand models to figure-out product sp…
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