Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) 's current 2P reserves are 55 mmbo, production is 12.5kbopd, market cap is about £500 million. Drilling results have been announced this morning from Bua Ban North. (see rns). In response the share price has fallen 5%. I’m just revisiting the situation in an attempt to get my thoughts straight. The recent corporate presentation stated in January that the BBN target comprised 3 separate geological structures and gave the pre-drill estimated sizes as follows:- Lower Oligocene 15 mmbbl, Miocene 15 mmbbl & Eocene 45 mmbbl). It appears that these structures are split into quite small separated elements. The current drilling campaign includes 6 wells in different locations with most wells targeting multiple structures/elements.
Today’s RNS says:
“The Bua Ban North A-01 exploration well encountered 32 feet of net pay in the Miocene interval and 27 feet of net pay in the Upper Oligocene interval, both with 25% average porosity.
CEO’s CEO said:
"We are very pleased with the results of the first well at Bua Ban North. We have confirmed the extension of the petroleum system to the northern part of the basin. The discovery in the Miocene gives further evidence of a larger Miocene trend in the Songkhla basin. The discovery of productive Upper Oligocene sands also opens up a new potential zone in the basin for exploration and development”
So good news wrt the Oligocene and the Miocene. However, the Eocene interval was disappointing:
“It was encountered 700 feet deeper than originally prognosed and whilst it contains 70 feet of oil bearing sands they show low porosity and permeability so the oil is not expected to flow naturally.”
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CEO’s CEO (should that be CEO2?) said":
“Although the sands in the Eocene interval are tight in the A-01 well, they were encountered deeper than we anticipated and have porosity and permeability characteristics consistent with what we would expect at that depth. We will be drilling an exploration well in an area where the Eocene is believed to be significantly shallower and exhibit higher porosity and permeability.”
So, it seems disappointing but not terminal for the Eocene in other locations.
According to slide 15 of the January presentation, the Oligocene and Eocene targets at the location of this first well represented just 7 mmbo in aggregate. Today’s result is giving an inital thumbs up to 3 mmbo of that and a thumbs down to the other 4 mmbo. But it is also reporting the unexpected discovery in the Miocene. There are no pre-drill estimates for this, for obvious reasons. But the oil bearing interval is actually thicker in the Miocene than it is in the Oligocene – so the potential is possibly of the same order of magnitude. What we can say is that the discovery announced today represents more than 3 mmbbls and possibly 5 or 6.
The potential for the whole drilling campaign does not seem to me to have been significantly diminished by today’s news.
- The Eocene elsewhere is shallower so porosity/permeability ought to be better
- The Miocene may prove more prospective than expected - it obviously extends into areas where it was thought absent.
As drilling results go, that seems OK to me. With 1 down and 5 to go, I feel reasonably optimistic. However on balance the market seems to disagree with me. So what am I missing here?
Disclosure of interest: The Author holds shares in Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) .
Filed Under: Oil & Gas Exploration Production,
Disclaimer:
The author may hold shares in this company. All opinions are his own. You should check any statements that appear factual and seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
Coastal Energy Company (Coastal) is an international oil and gas exploration and development company with operations in offshore Thailand. The Company has a 36.1% interest in Apico LLC. Coastal has 100% working interest in Block G5/50 and G5/43 (within the boundaries of Block G5/43). Its Block G5/50 encompasses an area of approximately 270 square kilometers off the east coast of Thailand. Its Onshore Thailand assets include a 12.6% interest in Blocks EU-1 and E-5N containing the Sinphuhorm gas field. Its Onshore Thailand assets include a 12.6% interest in Blocks EU-1 and E-5N containing the Sinphuhorm gas field, and a 36.1% interest each in Block L15/43 (surrounding the Sinphuhorm gas field) and Block L27/43 (southeast of the Sinphuhorm gas field). Coastal indirectly owns 50% of Viking Storage Solutions (Mauritius) Limited. In February 2012, the Company acquired an additional 2.9% interest in Apico LLC. more »


36 Comments on this Article show/hide all
In the light of that result FirstEnergy have raised their gross resource estimate on the Bua Ban North B Miocene to 24.3mmboe gross with a per share unrisked value of 255p/share. That takes core, risked, NAV to a total of 663p for producing and undeveloped assets plus 314p/share of risked explo upside (1,686p unrisked).
Anyone know when/where the AGM takes place?
T
Hi Tournesol,
Last year it was the 22nd July in London:
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail.html?announcementId=10546312
I know you might have already seen that but if not then perhaps it will be useful as a guide. With the main market Canadian listing coming, they may move it over there this year I suppose!
Regards,
JS123
Thanks JS - I've e-mailed the company for clarificaion and will share any info that returns.
In reply to tournesol, post #20
Re listing, Coastal RNS: Coastal Energy Company (the "Company" or "Coastal") (TSX-V: CEN, AIM: CEO) announces that the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) has conditionally approved the listing of the Company's common shares. The Company's shares will begin trading on the TSX on or about July 5, 2011 under the ticker symbol "CEN". The Company's shares will be delisted from the TSX Venture Exchange simultaneously with the TSX listing. The Company's shares will continue trading on the London AIM market under the ticker symbol "CEO".
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201106210730017813I&fe=1
Also 1st quarter results look good:
First Quarter 2011 Highlights
- Total Company production averaged 10,125 boepd in the first quarter, up from 7,578 boepd in the fourth quarter of 2010, a 34% increase. Offshore production was impacted by downtime for workover operations on several wells.
- EBITDAX for Q111 was $40.1 million, 13% above the same period in 2010.
- The Company began its exploration program with a discovery at Bua Ban North A. The Bua Ban North A-01 well encountered pay zones in the Miocene and Upper Oligocene intervals.
- Subsequent to quarter-end, two further successful exploration wells were drilled at Bua Ban North A and six successful exploration wells were drilled at Bua Ban North B. The Company plans to begin testing these discoveries in July.
Randy Bartley, President and CEO of Coastal Energy, commented:
"I'm pleased to report that the first quarter of 2011 brought further success for the Company. Production and cash flow both increased from the previous quarter. We expect to see material production gains offshore as Bua Ban North B & A are tied in beginning in July.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201106210730017823I&fe=1
In reply to alano20, post #21
Alan020
my question is simply about the AGM - those RNS extracts don't say anything about the AGM as far as I can see.....
Slightly soggy reaction to the figs. The market was expecting higher bopd so that was a miss. Then again, with so much activity and thinking on their feet (changing drill/test programms to reflect news) its understandable.
Just need the MOPU (shame its not bigger) and those flow rates to prove commerciality.
FWIW I see this situation as providing a terrific opportunity.
IMHO Coastal's SP is solidly underpinned by its existing production and booked reserves.
In for free is low risk growth in reserves and production in the short, medium and long term arising from recent discoveries which have yet to mature into booked/developed reserves. Also in for free is the potential for additional discoveries - which on recent performance appear almost a certainty.
Its fiscal environment is benign. Political risk is relatively low. Management seems competent and very much aware of the investor perspective. I think the communication of information is world class.
Assets are very concentrated so that the company makes an attractive package for acquisition.
What's not to like?
My expectation is for a return of at least 100% over the next 2 years and possibly much more over a shorter timescale. This is my kind of investment and I'm thinking about increasing my holding.
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absolutely no advice implicit in the above - I've been wrong many times before and my crystal ball is in for a service.
T
In reply to tournesol, post #24
T
Agree with you there.
One of several such companies IMO - CZE, PXT and GTE spring to mind. Okay, Columbia may be seen by some as higher political risk but Id rate it on a par with, or slightly below, Thailand with its history of coups.
D
Let the good times roll. :0)
Busy times for Coastal.
Mark
DTX, GSY, TAO also have similar types of prospects IMO.
I think someone should start a Canadian junior oil thread ... :-)
In reply to Mattybuoy, post #27
Sounds like a capital idea. Why hasnt anyone done one already? ;-)
Anyway Matty, it seems like its just you, me and Mark that are interested. Why, i dont understand.
To keep "On Topic", i see that First Energy have raised their target for CEO to £10.90 from £9.10, a 60% discount to target vs 35% for their coverage overall.
A "new ideas" thread for Canadian juniors has now been added here -
http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/canadian-junior-oil-thread-new-ideas-and-general-comment-57768/
Add me to the interested list - my Coastal position is now medium sized, having started the year as small.
The AGM is on July 21st - I will be going - anyone else?
db
In reply to doverbeach, post #30
I'll be making every effort to attend the AGM
In reply to doverbeach, post #30
Likewise! I am planning to attend too. Will have to have a close look at the proposed stock options. :~/
RNS out re some director dealing. Two buys and 1 exercise of options.
In reply to marben100, post #32
One small thing I wasn't aware of, regarding AGM attendance & voting: if you've bought shares in uncertificated form on AIM, they're actually DIs (Depositary Interests) and Capita hold the shares that the DIs represent. That's because Coastal's shares can't be held in CREST directly (this is set out in Coastal's admission document). So, formally you'd need an LoR (letter of representation) from Capita (even if you hold your DIs in a personal CREST account). Similiarly, if you hold "shares" purchased on AIM in a broker nominee account, your broker would have to get an LoR from Capita.
I've asked FirstEnergy about this (as Coastal don't have a direct UK contact) and they believe that Coastal will probably deliver a presentation at the AGM. They're also checking for me whether shareholders holding DIs will be admitted. One thing's for sure: you won't be able to vote without an LoR or properly completed proxy form. For some AIM-purchased "shares" I hold in a personal CREST, I did receive a proxy form for instructing Capita how to vote the shares that my DIs represent (which I how I was alerted to this complication!).
Regards,
Mark
I'll just sign in as a guest as I did last time...
More good news at Bua Ban North released by Coastal Energy (LON:CEO) a moment ago:
No wonder Randy Bartley said at the AGM that "shareholders would like this year." :o)
SM