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Today's news from Faroe Petroleum can't hurt the case for KNOC paying up for Dana!
Dana's 27.53% stake is in the books at £34,816,000......making an average price of about 72.4p. FPM's shares are now at 160p after today's news....which means that Dana are sitting on an unrealised capital gain of £42.13mn re their stake in FPM......which is about 45p per DNX share! And with Anne Marie now imminent.....
The buyer of Dana would also effectively have the option of bidding for FPM or selling the stake onto someone else.
If KNOC don't want it (unlikely, I'd have thought) then if Anne Marie were to come in (or look likely to) then an ENI or someone else may be happy to take it and bid for FPM themselves with the benefit of having an effective blocking stake.
ee
In reply to emptyend, post #128
...ps...it is worth noting, as a rough rule of thumb with Anne Marie coming up, that every 10p change to the price of Faroe Petroleum shares is worth over 5p (5.2p on my figures) per share to Dana's price!
Faroe is now 168p, up 8p from my earlier post - and that is worth about 4p per share to Dana.
ee
In reply to emptyend, post #128
Following these comments yesterday in the above post, I realised thanks to Exmooroil on ADVFN that I had made an error in calculating Dana's average in-price to Faroe Petroleum Plc (LON:FPM), having failed to include the cost of subscribing to the rights issue earlier this year.
Exmooroil over on ADVFN pointed me to the cost of £19.2mn for the placing shares....so adding that to the figure in the AR for all prior purchases to the end of 2009 gives a total cost of £54.038mn for DNX's 27.53% in FPM. ....which is 48,055,825 shares according to FPM's website.....making Dana's average in-price about £1.125 for their whole stake.
At 160p for FPM shares, this would give Dana an unrealised capital gain of £22.8mn.....which is 24.7p per Dana Petroleum Plc (LON:DNX) share.
The other figure I gave yesterday (that a 10p move in FPM shares is worth 5.2p per DNX share) remains correct.....so, by way of illustration, if Anne Marie were to be a success and (guessing) FPM's shares rose to 250p - then the accrued unrealised capital gain sat on by DNX would be worth 71.5p per DNX share....and that is before any benefit of DNX's direct 25% stake in Anne Marie.
Not difficult to see the price ending up at £20 or so IMO.
ee
This may be of interest :o)
KNOC is today updating the market in relation to its approach to Dana Petroleum. Following discussions with the management and advisers of Dana Petroleum, on 14 July 2010, KNOC submitted an indicative cash proposal to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Dana Petroleum at a price of 1,800 pence per Dana Petroleum ordinary share (the "Proposal"). This revised Proposal followed an original indicative proposal of 1,700 pence per share tabled by KNOC on 17 June 2010.
http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/3592466-11594/DNX-Statement_re_Possible_Offer_html?ac=209501&username=tacheman
Hi all,
Game on ! KNOC makes statement re possible offer - ncley in time for the weekend press ;>
Most interesting that it's KNOC that have made the statement (as opposed to Dana). They clearly feel that it's a suitable offer for shareholders to consider - but what will mgt's stance be; will they recommend it? And what of the chance of a counter-bid from another party?
Price currently seems to be flat-lining at 1705p - is it in auction or something?
Not quite enough I reckon, particularly with the developments at FPM and upcoming drilling at Anne Marie.
Another quid or so plus some contigency offer for Anna Marie in the event of success and I think it'll be hard to resist.
When you get this close it seems stupid for KNOC to fail again for the sake of another 10%.
Aggressive move by knoc going public with the offer. It'll step up the pressure on the board (well TC) to do a deal now as 1800p is serious. It'll also flush out a counter (if there is one).
What with this, aex up v strongly on big vol and another holding up 13%, a very good weekend beckons.
KNOC confirms its offer price of 1800, i guess EE was correct, and a lot of you will be selling.
Here are the RNS links:
http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/201007231409448474P.html
http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=3910476
The fireworks from this 14th July offer are a little delayed, but it does explain the Tom Cross breast beating in the interim, making it pretty clear that he for one, thinks his company is worth a little more. How much more though ? Enough to make a deal do-able or so much that the Koreans will simply not go there ? The estimates of what a bid might be worth coming from these furums appear to have been spot on @ £18, including, I might add the specualtion from the back of the class, in stark contrast to the overpaid fabulous bonus boys who have been recommending to sell DNX. But what of the figure currently in TC's head, and how on earth does one conclude a figure now anyway with an allowance for upcoming drilling which has the capacity to bear quite significantly on valuations ? Does £20 do it ? If so, as has been pointed out just now, squeezing a tad more out of them would seem more than plausible, if not highly probable I would have thought, but if TC is leaning towards figures of 22 or even higher, it must be loking very wobbly.
One impression that is conveyed though is of a desire on both sides to close a deal, and if TC and his board had deemed this offer that has been on their table for ten days now to be nowhere near what they want to see, surely a statement of rejection would have been delivered not one reaffirming the attributes of Dana Petroleum..
I suppose the question, is what do you all think will happen & what to do as a holder of Dana Petroleum Plc (LON:DNX) ?
Will Dana want to sell at this price or even at all? They have a rosy future, the petrocanada deal and significant exploration assets.
Will KNOC raise its offer? Do they need this deal that badly?
Is this not likely to go through, making it wise for investors to take profits and come back in at a later date?
I must say at this stage, having entered the position before the merger I'm sitting on 35% profits, and am very tempted to leave the table at this stage.
Good call for those of you who entered at 1400.
I wonder what's actually on the table? We know about the cash element, it would be interesting to know if the current board a) want to stay, b) are wanted by the Koreans
In reply to hannibal, post #138
"Good call for those of you who entered at 1400."
and for those of us who entered at 400....... :)
Hi all,
Even better for my son's University costs fund ! He's in from 252..8p......
THAT'S the good news........unfortunately, it's now likely to be even more difficult to persuade him to "get a proper job"...;
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201007231800028768P&fe=1
Dana's response to Knoc
Hence knoc's announcement - pure pressure on the board. As I said, an aggressive (but dangerous) move.
I get the impresson that DNX arent that impressed by KNOC pre-conditions.
Heres the official response to KNOC:
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201007231800028768P&fe=1
A BIG thank you to emptyend. I sold out of my holdings today both in and out of my pension. I've traded and held DNX for a number of years (about 8) following in particular ee's commentary.
I was holding 3,500 before the approach bought quite recently at £10.50 by luck for the first time in some weeks/months in SIPP and outside. Sold out at £17.11. I've locked in profits for a large gain and am totally happy about it. I genuinely hope there's another fiver in Dana before it's taken over.
A cruel part of me hopes it all falls apart and I can buy them all back again at £10!! Won't happen I know.
My main holding is now SOCO and I've spent my Dana 'winnings' on Balfour Beatty (LON:BBY) and Smith & Nephew (LON:SN.) Many thanks ee.
ArtN
In reply to repobear, post #134
I am in complete and utter agreement with repo's comment here. I think would be total folly for KNOC to try and fail for a second time - because no-one will credit further approaches.
ee
ps...thanks Art here too
I think the weekend will be extremely interesting for all concerned. We should surely expect some further developments by Monday (one of which will be the spudding of Anne Marie, IMO!). If KNOC REALLY want Dana then they have to start stepping up to the plate quite soon.......
....my guess is that they may fail to do so, having not given themselves enough flexibility on timing - and that we may have another bidder in the fray by midweek. If that happens, then, with Anne Marie drilling, it really WILL be "game on"
ArtN
Congrats on your gains. Always good to hear private investors making money. Based on the statement I read KNOC seem to want to take an aggresive approach.
I get the feeling Dana will be aggresively bid for and sadly for me Dana will be takenover.
I enjoyed buying ats £10 and selling after a 20-30% profit.
CONGRATULATIONS emptyend.....I am VERY happy for you, you have held Dana for a very very long time and worked and researched very hard to understand and then share your research on the boards. It seems to finally be paying off.
In a takeover situation like Dana is in now at the very least I top slice, infact I always top slice after any share rises this much in a short period of time.