Incidental stuff

In reply to Samurai, post #1087

I'm not sure exactly at what point news will be RNS'd. They have already given an extimate that it will add around 2,000 bopd gross to the liquids stream, and I believe that the historical claims (since they have been supplying this mixed stream for the last 4 years, but only getting paid as if it was dry gas) are likely to take some while to settle.

I would have thought they would only be RNS'd if some definitive point in the process has been reached (eg agreed extra payments for future production) or if there was a material difference from expectations re volumes.

Accordingly, I'm not holding my breath on that.

ee

Well, Eni would appear to have the funds in place. Lets see if they use them.
Eric
https://trade.loginandtrade.com/flashASP/host/progs/news/DJNewsStory.asp?newsID=20121011T8628&

Eni SpA (E) said Thursday that it expects hydrocarbon output to grow by about 3% in the 2015-2022 period as the top Italian oil and natural gas company aims to drum up its credentials among leading upstream players after shedding its regulated gas assets and freeing up funds to spend on large projects. Eni said it also expects hydrocarbon production to rise by more than 3% adjusted for factors such as the disruptions in Libya following last year's civil war that toppled Moammar Gadhafi. Italy's biggest oil and gas company by volume said it expects more than 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent in new daily production by 2022. Earlier this year, Italy's technocrat government of Prime Minister Mario Monti forced Eni to shed its controlling stake in Snam SpA (SRG.MI), the country's biggest gas grid and storage company by capacity, to open up the energy sector to competition. Eni has agreed to sell the majority of its stake to state-controlled Cassa Depositi e Prestiti SpA. Eni, which is one of Africa's biggest oil producers, is spearheading its exploration growth with large-scale projects as it faced disruptions from its large Libyan operation.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3E8LG38820121016

TENDERS
- Vietnam's PV Oil issued a tender offering 10,000 barrels per day of TGT
for January-June loading. The tender closes October 22, with the validity
extending through to Nov. 1.

Whilst I would love the above number to be missing a zero, I have the feeling it isn't.What happens to the remainder? (Is there a remainder?)

I am presuming this is an additional contract to the Dated Brent + $6.60 for the 40k already agreed. So implies 50k to be contracted with rest sold at spot. Not sure really what else to deduce apart from increasing confidence in production?

I see that Shell are reorganising their VN operations to focus more on oil. That is the downstream bit of Shell by implication - but we know that Shell has also been a buyer of many of theTGT cargoes.....so further vertical integration can't be ruled out?

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-crude-vietnam-sells-tgt-094129781.html

SINGAPORE, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Vietnam's state oil marketer PV Oil has sold 300,000 barrels of Te Giac Trang (TGT) for December in a tender, trade sources said on Monday.
The cargo to load on Dec. 11-15 was sold to an oil major at about $5.40 a barrel above dated Brent,"

Nice to see the premium persisting

Is there a date set for the IMS?

In reply to adam, post #1094

Coincidentally, I just had a reply to that exact question which I had asked yesterday. The answer is no - but it will be sometime next week.

Any more on the timing of the reserves report?

In reply to jseth123, post #1096

No - unchanged.....

So, in December?

Extract of ee's comment from the other thread:

"Still... early December..... IF they go the route of publishing the reserves report"

and

The IMS next week may give some useful steers in these areas......or not........ ;-)"

My own expectations for the above are "No publishing" and "No useful steers"  :)

In reply to Spurticus, post #1099

My apologies. If I'd caught up on the other thread, I would not have asked the redundant question above.

I asked about the timing of the reserves review and was told

" We expect this to be completed by the end of the year."

that's not to say that it won't be early December who knows ? Frustrating to see the date slipping into the future, but better to wait and get the best result,

K

" We expect this to be completed by the end of the year."

I've been assuming not before Q1/2013 for some time now based on the reason suggested previously - simply that these things always take longer than expected.

Frustrating but realistic.

Redhill

Indeed Redhill, ee's comments about whether they might not publish the results until after some negotiations because of some confidentiality agreement has got me thinking.

We don't know what else is going on, what current tgt production is, whether they are talking to anyone about any deals ?

I recall some time back discussing the earliest times we though a deal might take place, 6 months from start of phase 2 was a significant date for me as 6 months production data is reasonable for a buyer, whether it is in this case or not I'm not so sure. As perhaps you'd need 6 months from ramp up ? I guess all that depends on the buyer. Without knowing the details of which zones are open and producing it's hard to say, but It is concievable that they have enough data to make a convincing case, perhaps part of the hold up has been producing from different zones to assess the reserves ?

so many questions, so few answers,

hopefully we won't be having these discussions this time next year !

cheers K

In reply to kenobi, post #1103

We don't know what else is going on, what current tgt production is, whether they are talking to anyone about any deals ?

I recall some time back discussing the earliest times we though a deal might take place, 6 months from start of phase 2 was a significant date for me as 6 months production data is reasonable for a buyer, whether it is in this case or not I'm not so sure. As perhaps you'd need 6 months from ramp up ? I guess all that depends on the buyer. Without knowing the details of which zones are open and producing it's hard to say, but It is concievable that they have enough data to make a convincing case, perhaps part of the hold up has been producing from different zones to assess the reserves ?

so many questions, so few answers,

Well indeed we don't know what is going on - quite correctly! And indeed there are few answers available - and a lot of questions that would be nice to know the answer to but, realistically, we will never know until everything can be disclosed.

TGT production and perhaps future plans will likely be clarified in next week's IMS....but the key questions about the adequacy of production data in relation to a) proving connectivity and b) satisfying a buyer are completely impossible to answer....and yet are very material. Only the independent assessment (and perhaps a willing buyer) can provide the answer on those matters!

People will have to form their own judgement on these things. The chances are that there will be no useful spoonfeeding that the company can possibly provide, until/unless they publish the reserves report.

I agree with spurticus above, incidentally. Those who hope for much pre-deal enlightenment will be disappointed.....and I would be entirely happy if this were to be the case!

ee

ee

Ignoring the potential for something completely unforeseen and negative, and assuming there is none of the hoped for connectivity, what would be your bottom-end figure for a valuation of SIA? Presumably well above the current SP but well below the £6-£8 that has been discussed here at times.

I remember davjo has mentioned a figure nearer £5/share albeit that may be based on fairly conservative assumptions.

My apologies if, based on earlier discussions, you feel this is a superfluous question.

Regards, Martin

In reply to shanklin100, post #1105

Martin,
Davjo has a bet with ee, re takeout price,

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/soco-end-game-timings-and-price-targets-67759/

Indeed! Just for the record, I don't go along with ee's £6-£8/sh sale value for the company but I most certainly don't rule it out. The scope is there but I always take a conservative view based on actual asset disposals made in the past, which as often as not, didn't quite live up to PI expectations. I do recognise however that Soco VN could be very different. It will need a very cool political hand played by Soco to extricate maximum value but I don't see any reason to alter my bet of a pint with him right now, which IIRC, is based on him winning on a SV sale over £5/sh and me winning if it's under....as things stand that is, before any reserves upgrade.

So davjo (whom I have great respect for and has called previous sales like Thailand accurately) ,  is saying below £5,  but based on what we know now in terms of reserves.   Realistically anyone making an estimate based on higher reserves figures is just guestimating what the reserves upgrade might be,  perhaps with a steer from the management bodylanguage.  They certainly seemed bullish about it at the agm,  although I'm not sure they gave an estimate (unless anyone remembers otherwise ?). 

So frustrating though it is,  and with all the if's and buts,  we have to wait for the reserves update before we can more firmly predict this.   Surely even without the connectivity proof,  there is still the potential of a 20% upgrade in reserves,  so it's not all pinned on the connectivity story,  though if this is proven,  then perhaps this leads to a step change in the possible magnitude of any revision.  

Its just frustrating to see the date drift off,  but of course,  always better to get the right result later, than the wrong result bang on time !

cheers K

In reply to kenobi, post #1106

kenobi

Thank you for your post. Interestingly IMHO, it is not necessarily the case that davjo expects £5.00 to be achievable. Hence my question as to what bottom-end number one could be confident in assuming no connectivity,,, ,,, and no disasters.

Cheers, Martin