Incidental stuff

So....estimates of total NAV are:

Cannaccord: 378p

Citi: 452p

Numis: 462p

BoAML: 498p

RBC: 561p

Analyst price targets - An average of £4.70

1.2mn shares traded with the price spending most of the day between £3-3.10. - Hardly illiquid.

At the interims 30 June 2011 Soco had a cash balance of $213.1 mn using todays exchange rate of 1.59572 USD that is £133.5mn.

Yet all they spent was 42,500 * 298.3171 pence per share = £126,784 i.e. a drop in the ocean compared to the cash on our balance sheet.

Yet we are readily prepared to spend MILLIONs of $ on wells in Africa and TGD trying and hoping we can find Oil when we already have assets that are worth significantly MORE then the current share price yet the management team lack the common sense of adding value for shareholders in what is a very low risk way of doing.

And what makes me even more angry is the business is generating significant cashflow and thus the cash balance is higher then stated above.

So I can't find ANY reason to justify why there is not a more aggressive buy back of shares.

I don't support any acquiistions, all it means is higher salaries for management in the much enlarged company which I totally dislike.

FOCUS YOUR MINDS, the value is in VIETNAM. BUY BACK cheap shares and add value using a low risk method.

Why are these people being paid HUGE sums of money year in year out? Trust me if I did'nt perform for 6 months, let alone 4 years in my role I would have been sacked. I don't care about past performance and how much the share price has gone up in that period & I care even less about the stakes management have.

All I care about is I have a significant Investment in this company and I want to see a decent return by realising the value in Vietnam.

emptyend - 1 Nov'11 - 16:54 - 7390 of 7402

though I'm sticking to my £6+ for the reasons I alluded to on S'pedia today.



anteos - 1 Nov'11 - 18:05 - 7397 of 7402


disappointed with the well result, but hardly unexpected. 43k is a paltry amount. I bet some of you guys buy more than this when the SP falls.

How do these comments above reconcile with the statement below from ADVFN?



emptyend - 1 Nov'11 - 18:05 - 7398 of 7402

There is no point in being aggressive when there is no volume there at the price!

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=14382883&from=7380

We agree that the management understand the valuation of the company better then anyone else including ee? Agreed.

So if the shares are really worth £6+ like ee keeps banging on about for yonks now, why was'nt the management prepared to buy more aggresively in the market today?

£3-3.10 is ludicrously cheap if the shares are worth £6+ surely so why on earth would you not buy aggresively in the market when there is liquidity?

I just find it crazy they only bought back less then 4% of todays volume. Just totally bonkers when according to ee they are getting 2 for 1.

It really makes me question, is the management interested in selling up Vietnam in the near term?

I SERIOUSLY want clarification of exactly what their strategy is because right now I am starting to lose confidence in the strategy indicated on their website.

They have a development project in Vietnam with supposeldy loads of upside from TGD, they have an early exploration play in Africa which has'nt lived up to expectations and they keep indicating in their statements that they are looking for acquisitions!!!

I don't know about others but I am SERIOUSLY concerned with their motives of holding the large cash pile, it makes me think they could be looking to piss more of it away on drilling wells that could potentially come to notthing simply by acquiring a company with acreage to drill in a different frontier.

I think the management is lacking FOCUS on their prime asset which is VIETNAM and that really concerns me IMO.

In reply to Isaac, post #709

Where are the men in white coats when they are needed?  Sheesh!

Not a great day. It is always better when the RNS's announce that oil has been found.

It's not very pleasant to see chunks of my inconsiderable fortune disappear. I met a petroleum engineer at my badminton club. Her advice was to always sell before the drilling result. I look forward to trying this as a trading strategy when I no longer have to work as I suspect that she might be right.

I'm not happy with the run of bad drilling results and I would be a lot happier if they found a major to partner with them to have another go at TGD.

TomKe

Lordy Isaac, you should really watch your blood pressure you know, else you won't be around to enjoy the fruits of Soco's management's labours.

In reply to emptyend, post #706

According to Google Finance the closing price on 20th September 2007 was £23.95.

http://www.google.co.uk/finance/historical?cid=668523&startdate=Sep+1%2C+2007&enddate=Oct+1%2C+2007&num=30#


MT

In reply to mangotree, post #713

Thanks for the confirmation - so 598.75p in today's money.

Soon be back there again.....  ;-)

Hi Isaac,

I don't know what you do in the day job to which you refer, but I've usually found that - if I find myself dealing with people who are totally unreasonable, but are 'in the driving seat' - the best thing to do is to save my energy for more worthwhile pursuits, where you stand a chance of making an impression - and move on.

Maybe your day job's not given you that experience - yet ?

Trust me ! It's not only good for the blood pressure (as darron suggests) it also allows you to be more successful in your chosen pursuits.

Why not give it a try ? What have you got to lose ?

Good luck - whatever you decide.

Darron

The blood pressure is fine.

extrader

Thanks for the career's advice but I am actually happy with what I do, let's not get mixed up with Soco's failures and my personal life.


In the course of time I intend to review the performance of Soco over the last 4 years and look back at where they have done things well and where I think they did poorly.

In the areas they have done poorly I intend to highlight the well failures and hopefully I can get a bit of a handle on how much these failures costs so we can analyse the information from a monetary perspective as essentially this is how much value has been 'destroyed' from the company, money that could have come to shareholders in the form of dividends or buy backs.

I also intend to look much deeper in Soco Remunaration based on the performance and compare it against TGT days pre 2007 and try and understand how much the salary has changed as performance has declined etc

I think high salaries for failure need to be prevented & there should be more responsilbity taken by management for the failure of the wells rather then loose statemewnts that 'this is normal business' : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ac70404-04af-11e1-91d9-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1cUbY1EQY.

I'm sorry but those statements just don't cut it for me, they need to be more sympathetic for the use of shareholder funds to drill wells that are not succesful & certainly don't add value.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, you really don't get E&P do you old chap?

Soco's had some bad results, so have other companies like Cairn say.

Sometimes even the most attractive looking prospects just don't work out. Look at the recent failure on Heilo off Norway, the most sought after of licences in that round of bidding. Look at Hoil, all looked good and whoops, its not oil, its gas, or Desire, or.... Then there's disasterous problems with drills like M&Ps Deep Mafia well or indeed TGD first time round...stuff happens. You get the idea. Its a roll of the dice.

Thing is, the work involved in a success is just the same as a failure (obviously not counting Appraisal and Dev work). Salaries were set by ref to comparitor groups on shareholder value basis iirc.

Obviously Soco's not had any luck but then they've appraised and developed cnv and tgt to put us in an enviable position.

That's the oil business. Take your lumps along with the rewards.

Oh, by the way Isaac, you keep going on and on and on about the lack of an asset sale and want the management to magic up an offer.

Well, again, you need to understand the industry. Its a close community and large fields are always watched closely by interested parties who will make a move when they feel the time is right. We know that Soco did have an approach a while back but that was dismissed due to hopes for TGD which would/could have been massively beneficial to us. Other companies are no doubt watching and may well have an offer in mind but are waiting for production proofs to minimise risks (who can blame anyone for taking a more cautious line at the moment). Look at that Brazilian field where production is 10% of planned vols due to a surprise aquifer or Tullows experience with Chinguetti.

Meanwhile Soco has been working hard on the development of TGT and hoepfully (probably) there will be much more reserves to be added from the data acquired. Let's not forget the slump in the oil price, the near implosion of the world economy (first time - I reserve judgement on now).

Then there's all the work we never hear about, the examination of possible deals, new assets etc.

So, am I frustrated, yes, mildly. But still, we've had a hell of a run and now have a company with great reserves, great cashflows and balance sheet strength and a great management team whose interests are very much aligned with our own.

There's worse places to be as shareholders in many other oilies will be all too ready to admit.

Let's also not forget that at any point you could have sold, reduced or traded the swings and enhanced your own pot.

Sorry if that's disjointed, several interruptions whilst typing.

Damn, still forgot something else...

As to the management's ability, look at the trading of assets over the years, realising the value then move on... (Yemen, Thailand, Mongolia, UK).

That record shows who they work and yes, NV could have gone before but was held back for hopes of value add to come through the drill bit (increased reserves at TGT, getting CNV sorted) and the ever tamtalising teaser that is TGD.

DJP,

I agree with all the above,

Its still frustrating seeing the shareprice where it is !!!!

hopefully production will ramp up nicely in Q1 and settle nerves,

K

Hi kenobi,

I can think of a few nerves that need settling !

ATB

Just looking at Barclays quotes this morning for Soco and surprised to see an unusually wide spread of 319p/310p, but more peculiar is that they are reporting over 800 trades but with insignificant volume giving (by their calculations) an average trade size of 5 shares.

Is this a case of the "bots" at work, or just a case of Barclays having duff data? Curious (or maybe not).

redhill

In reply to redhill, post #722

ADVFN have only 20 trades and spreads of 1-2p...so it is duff data at Barclays

In reply to emptyend, post #723

I think it's duff ADVFN data in that case.

MoneyAM reporting trade data has per redhill.

The Stock Market is simply the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient - Warren Buffett

Yes, the SP has been very volatile this morning. It is as if the market makers are expecting something but don't quite know what.
Eric

In reply to nigelpm, post #724

I think it's duff ADVFN data in that case.

MoneyAM reporting trade data has per redhill.

In that case, MoneyAM has the same duff feed as Barclays. The LSE data is here.

...around 130 trades in the first two hours - all pretty normal.