Incidental stuff

In reply to kenobi, post #972

Perhaps this gives us a realistic view of current production ? maybe 40 was just peak production, but across a period of time we should be banking on 30K + at the moment.

I thought it was always clear that the 40k+ number was just a peak during testing.

perhaps extracting x +10% over a longer period without needing extra infrastructure might be just as profitable in the longer term or more. More importantly, would that asset be worth more to a purchaser ?

I think there is no doubt that extra infrastructure will be needed - its just a question of what sort and when.

I find it difficult to think that this (and the production ramp-up) isn't part and parcel of the considerations driving montisation timing in Vietnam. IMO most of the outstanding decisions and pending announcements are clearly linked together.

ee

I thought it was always clear that the 40k+ number was just a peak during testing.

> yes, are we to assume it's static around 30 ? 30k seems to be the average this year, I wonder if the company would give an estimate as to what the typical run rate is now or are we to assume production has been flat since jan 1st ??

I think there is no doubt that extra infrastructure will be needed - its just a question of what sort and when.

>> perhaps, but at this rate perhaps not this year or next, beyond that, I'm hoping it will be someone else's concern and they might even own some suitable infra structure. I doubt there will be a rush to build a pipe line to Bach Ho or order another tanker conversion based on production so far. Even then if PV are going to take this conservative view to production which might not be bad across the piece, perhaps part of the benefit will be that they won't need extra infrastructure for some time if at all. Still no point debating it, just musing, time will tell.

K

In reply to emptyend, post #973

"I thought it was always clear that the 40k+ number was just a peak during testing."

In fact AIUI, 40k (plus 30mmscfd) was the original anticipated production rate as quoted by PV (and PTTEP), seemingly agreed to by Soco when the development plan was approved. The subsequent 55k figure was apparently 'agreed' since by the partners...which begs the question as to 'agreed' at what level? Hoang Long management or PV director level?

In reply to davjo, post #975

In fact AIUI, 40k (plus 30mmscfd) was the original anticipated production rate as quoted by PV (and PTTEP), seemingly agreed to by Soco when the development plan was approved.

Welll that was true - but had long since been superseded - first by 45k and then by 55k. The figure of 40k emerged again when it was reached in testing shortly before a celebratory PV party, when it was trumpeted by the PV people.

The subsequent 55k figure was apparently 'agreed' since by the partners...which begs the question as to 'agreed' at what level? Hoang Long management or PV director level?

There is undoubtedly a "story" behind the change to the plan to get to 55k which led to the delays in perfing the Miocene. I suspect that we may not get to find out what it is - at least until we get to the point of an EGM!

ee

 

"I call investing the greatest business in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There's no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. You wait for a pitch you like."

"The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything -- you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you're a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, 'Swing, you bum!'"

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2012/04/24/buffett-on-baseball-and-investment.aspx?source=ufwflwlnk0000001

Soco is still pumping the black stuff. Brent is at $119/bbl. TGT Premium is still $6.5-8 consistently each month. The market cap is still close to £1bn. The cash is building everyday. By the time I wake up tommorow morning Soco would have pumped more crude & therefore generated more cash.

This scenario can't last forever, either Brent has to collapse or Soco's share price will have to rise to reflect the improving fundamentals, I am betting on the latter happening.......

In reply to Isaac, post #977

That is a good Buffett quote. I'm glad I'm not a money manager - though my wife gets impatient enough to replicate a small crowd at times ;-)

The coming weekend could be quite pivotal though....

I have been away a few days, has there been any announcement about TGD ?

I would have thought that it was worthy of an RNS one way or the other, I see the share price has firmed up a few pence I wonder if this is on expectation of SOCO not drilling TGD ?

I guess it's possible they have decided to and they'll make an announcement in the morning ?

K

In reply to kenobi, post #979

I have been away a few days, has there been any announcement about TGD ? 

No. Though it's not reached the end of the month yet! I could start to speculate, but I could think of many reasons to justify a wide range of possible outcomes as to why they haven't yet, so the exercise is effectively pointless!

If there's no RNS tomorrow then I would be a little surprised.

In reply to peterg, post #980

If there's no RNS tomorrow then I would be a little surprised.

Yup. And now that tomorrow has arrived, I am also surprised to see nothing, with 25 mins to go to the open.....

Is not the most likely explanation that there is nothing to justify an RNS - no farm in and no extension to TGD?

In reply to Mancman, post #982

Some of us would certainly say that no extension to TGD would be material news. Remember that this is a prospect area that they have drilled twice and where they have proved substantial amounts of hydrocarbons in place.

Perhaps it may be dropped into the IMS sometime this week, but I'm surprised that it doesn't seem to merit a separate RNS, whatever the outcome (unless, of course, they are still waiting for the full facts/outcome from discussions in VN....which is a possible reason that would surely disappear by the end of today).

ps.....there are other possibilities too, involving coordination issues, but even I wouldn't say that they are especially likely.

eMail to Ed;

The TGD license expired yesterday; when will we have some news?

I ask because I am a shareholder controlling 37,000 shares. Ed will remember me in 2 ways; our chat about elephant polo before the 2010 AGM, and my asking for dividends at the 2011 AGM.

Soco is very important to the financial wealth of my family and friends.

Re TGD, I have full confidence in the board, whatever the decision.

In reply to MadDutch, post #984

I understand that they didn't exercise the option to drill. If they had done so, then they would have issued an RNS.

The implication is that they couldn't get a farm-out deal over the finishing line.

I guess those who attend the AGM may be able to get a fuller picture?

Shame, I wish I'd paid more attention when the HLJOC relinquished this all those years ago, would have saved me some cash (& hairloss).

VN becomes a 'plumbing exercise' now - hard to see what further value SOCO can add there (TGT or CNV). And it removes an unknown from the range of possible NAVs, which can't be a bad thing.

The implication is that they couldn't get a farm-out deal over the finishing line.

Hmm, if that is true then I am starting to get a little frustrated with our Directors. Could they have got a farm out with more time, if so why leave it to the last minute and have no alternative but to give it up?

Or were the terms simply not attractive enough for either party, or could no one be convinced that it was worth the risk in which case why have we hung on for so long?

Jeez, we must be due some good news sometime?

In reply to emptyend, post #985

I understand that they didn't exercise the option to drill. If they had done so, then they would have issued an RNS.

Have you had this confirmed from someone at Soco? Given the almost none existant comment on TGD in the annual report it isn't a huge surprise, but I am disappointed.

Unwise

In reply to unwise2, post #988

Yes - confirmed. Obviously in line with recent guidance too re not sole-risking again.

Re:

Hmm, if that is true then I am starting to get a little frustrated with our Directors. Could they have got a farm out with more time, if so why leave it to the last minute and have no alternative but to give it up?

Or were the terms simply not attractive enough for either party, or could no one be convinced that it was worth the risk in which case why have we hung on for so long?

I believe that discussions in various forms have been going on for months. The fact that the deadline has come and gone (despite discussions continuing until a late stage) suggests to me that there simply wasn't agreement on terms - and its not impossible to envisage why that might have been...though, as Unwise says, it is disappointing.

However, with an eye on the bigger picture, that may not be all bad. When it comes to the bigger picture, the Directors have a clear and strong interest in getting THAT right - and this may perhaps have been some impediment or distraction in the circumstances as they currently see them?

ee

Hi ee,

So when do you think that Soco will let the rest of us know that TGD is 'off the table' ?

Common courtesy (apart from materiality) suggests that they should.

I wonder whether PetroVietNam's apparent 'footdragging' re TGT production build-up will now - coincidentally - dissipate somewhat ?

Where's a good conspiracy theorist when you need one ?!

ATB

In reply to extrader, post #990

Presumably in the IMS which is due soon.

In reply to extrader, post #990

So when do you think that Soco will let the rest of us know that TGD is 'off the table'?
Common courtesy (apart from materiality) suggests that they should.

I was as surprised as anyone else that they didn't RNS it (hence my early enquiry) - though perhaps it really isn't considered "material" these days (with all the analysts having completely written it off etc). Personally I find it very odd, given the amount of time and money that has been poured into its assessment.

I imagine that it will be one of a number of items that will be covered in the IMS in the next week or two.

You make a good point, though, on the conspiracy theory angle - I don't think that there is much that (in isolation) I am prepared to take at face value at present...... I suspect that very many of the various "moving parts" on projects, production plans etc are in some way connected to one another.

Ultimately there is only going to be one outcome that matters....and that is the final destination, not the various sights that have been enjoyed on the (increasingly?) circuitous journey to get there.

ee