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Isaac strengthening ;-) but probably minimal impact to Oil Price

Wednesday, Aug 22 2012 by
5

Tropical Storm "Isaac", the ninth named storm of the Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season, has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and looked to be on its way to strengthening into a hurricane, although models indicate the storm's path will keep it out of the Gulf of Mexico.......................Forecasters in Houston said Isaac was unlikely to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico and was not at this time expected to affect oil and gas operations there.
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1263292.ece


Filed Under: Exploration & Production,

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15 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

tiswas 22nd Aug '12 1 of 15
11

I would not worry about it, Isaac tends to blow hot and cold.

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flyingbull 24th Aug '12 2 of 15

A twist in the tale....

BP, Shell begin Isaac evacuations
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article1263654.ece

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MadDutch 25th Aug '12 3 of 15

Nice to know that we still have our sense of humour!

Keep up the good work.

MD

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emptyend 26th Aug '12 4 of 15
2

In reply to flyingbull, post #2

Looks like it is going to cause some trouble, according to the forecasts:

 

Current comments on the same website suggest that the hurricane will reach Category 2 with winds up to 105mph.....but it is a developing situation. IIRC Hurricane Katrina in 2005 looked like a pussycat at this stage in a similar location (and same time of year) but strengthened dramatically through the Gulf.......and it wouldn't surprise me if Isaac also caused major trouble.

Still - at least that would lead them to force Isaac into retirement  ;-)

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emptyend 26th Aug '12 5 of 15
2

ps....with Isaac and the Venezuelan news, it is going to be a busy day in the oil markets in the next few days!!

Couple of interesting articles here and here. No doubt that more similar comments will emerge during today!

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flyingbull 27th Aug '12 6 of 15
1

In reply to emptyend, post #5

Aiming for New Orleans again!!??

 

 

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emptyend 27th Aug '12 7 of 15
2

In reply to flyingbull, post #6

Downgraded to a Category 1 expectation today though, so shouldn't cause too much damage - just a few days disruption?

Meanwhile the fact that fires are still burning in the Amuay refinery seems to make the estimate of a 48 hour restart look rather over-optimistic!

 

 

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emptyend 27th Aug '12 8 of 15
1

In reply to emptyend, post #7

Back up to category 2 on the latest estimates.......

Satellite data indicate Isaac has become better organized over the past 6 hours
.....first time for everything I guess  ;-)
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emptyend 28th Aug '12 9 of 15
1

In reply to emptyend, post #8

Looking unlikely that it will reach hurricane strength now......might just make it into Cat 1

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marben100 28th Aug '12 10 of 15
1

In reply to emptyend, post #9

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281618.shtml

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012 1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012 ...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE STATUS... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

 

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Isaac 28th Aug '12 11 of 15
3

They never should have called the storm Isaac....

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rhomboid1 28th Aug '12 12 of 15
2

In reply to Isaac, post #11

I must admit that thought had crossed my mind...it'll be seeking Obama's resignation and an immediate sale of all Gulf of Mexico oil assets..

Cheers

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flyingbull 28th Aug '12 13 of 15
1

Six lists of storm/hurricane names.....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

The six lists above are used in rotation and re-cycled every six years, i.e., the 2012 list will be used again in 2018.

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it. Several names have been retired since the lists were created. Here is more information the history of naming tropical cyclones and retired names. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames_history.shtml

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emptyend 29th Aug '12 14 of 15
9

In reply to Isaac, post #11

They never should have called the storm Isaac....

I dunno about that.......

Capricious, blows one way and then (after a short pause) blows entirely the other way, produces vast quantities of stuff until one is up to one's neck in it, often creates collateral damage and hassle........sounds like an Isaac to me  ;-)

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MadDutch 1st Sep '12 15 of 15

In reply to Isaac, post #11

Gordon Bennett!

I have just given him a thumbs up!!

Nice laugh, I, thanks if that was what you intended.

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