Isaac's Thread - High Yielding Shares & other stuff

I do still have doubts looking at the charts, bearing in mind that POG is a FTSE 250 firm and the share price has arguably tailed off due to all sorts of bad luck ( being a bit kind there... ).

Nevertheless, I am a huge gold bull and as you've shown they are still churning out bumper piles of gold... I'll see if I can pick it up again when I have the dosh.

Thanks for your eloquent reply :)

Shocker

Which charts are you looking at? POG chart looks bullish to me, it is up 8% today. Gold makes another all time high at $1422/oz. POG should continue going higher IMO.

Any idea why Randgold Resoureces is valued at £5.7billion but produced a similar amount of gold as POG, 329,000/oz the last 9 months ?

Randgold CEO expecting $1500/oz in 2011, I think Gold will go higher then that.

You should read the following from Canacord, pretty much sums up my view.....

 

 

Canaccord says POG undervalued by 75%.
"highlight the current P/NAV multiple of 0.32 times, an extremely low level compared with the 12-month average for our universe of intermediate producers at 1.3 times"

Petropavlovsk recovers 6%
09/11/2010
Petropavlovsk's share price continued its recovery moving up a further 6% in early morning trading.

Whilst the market took a dim view of a statement from the Russian mining group last week which confirmed that forecast gold production for 2010 would fail to meet the expected target of 670,000 ounces, analysts at Canaccord and Evolution still rate the stock as a Buy.

Canaccord says it had already lowered its production estimate for the year to 615,000 oz compared with the low end of Company guidance of 670,000 oz.

The Broker says: "We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and highlight the current P/NAV multiple of 0.32 times, an extremely low level compared with the 12-month average for our universe of intermediate producers at 1.3 times and for junior producers at 1.1 times.

"We believe this multiple more than prices in any disruption to production targets we could see through Q4. We would regard any delay in production from Q4 to Q1 as merely a delay and likely to have little impact on our NAV.

"Our target price for Petropavlovsk remains £15.50/share, which is after a 50% haircut on our NAV at spot gold prices with a 5% based NPV."

Evolution is equally sanguine, saying that it had always been wary of the Company's full year target and has now scaled back its own forecast to 550,00oz for the year.

"Offsetting this is the significantly higher gold price - which coincides nicely with the increase in production (in the final quarter)."

The share price moved ahead 60p to 1008.00p - up 6.3% on the day.

http://www.stockmarketwire.com/display/?id=4002443§ionId=standardNews

I'm out of Barc ... only made a small amount on this but was hoping to make more but prefer to be out and watch from the sides. I think it will struggle to make much progress beyond £3 in the foreseeable future and we could get a decent opportunity to pick up other cheap stock so wanted to raise some cash.

Still holding onto POG.....want to see where that takes me.

I meant the chart you put in the post before mine... but anyway I'm more fundamentals-focused and there seem plenty of fundamentals backing this one up. My patience let me down... never mind, live and learn, will see how they're valued when I next have spare cash. Thanks for your comments anyway.

Just bought some RBS with my Barc proceeds. Trading a PTBV of around 0.4, the cheapest bank in the UK!

I just think RBS has fallen a lot over the last 4 days, almost down 15% from the top hit 4 days ago.

I'm looking to sell on a decent bounce back or happy to hold on a more medium term. Lets see how stupid that trade was.... :-)

POG broke 1050p.....expecting the next target to be £12 :-D

And Wow at RBS today....Think all the Irish crap is overdone and will probably blow over......

Britain's Trillion Pound Horror Story

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/britains-trillion-pound-horror-story/4od#3139408

It was an interesting watch that's for sure. Amazing that people in the street haven't a clue, and can't even engage in basic mathematical comprehension.

What figure is that on the billboard - um, 4,.5 million.

Roflmao.

Absolutely incredible. No wonder so many people vote Labour.

Questor has regarded the insurance sector as undervalued for some time – particularly when it offers such stunning yields for income seekers. Buy Aviva.


Indeed, Aviva, after solid share price gains over the past few months, is still yielding 6.2pc for new investors.


At a recent strategy update, the company confirmed that it was continuing to refocus its business and would exit markets that did not have the scale or profitability it required. Currently, Aviva is the world's sixth-largest insurance group and the largest insurance services provider in the UK. It is a leading provider of life and pension products in Europe and is growing long-term savings businesses in Asia and the US.
Aviva also confirmed that it expected to have a combined operating ratio (COR) of 97pc in the year so far – and it expects this level in 2011 too. The COR is an important profitability measure for insurers, as it is a measure of premiums coming into the company minus insurance claims paid out. Any reading that comes in below 100pc means the company is taking in more premiums than it is paying out.

I think it is worth giving PYAD's HYP1 10Year anniversary a mention : http://boards.fool.co.uk/hyp1-is-ten-12093456.aspx

PYAD started with £75K capital and Invested 5K each in 15 shares in November 2000. Close to the top of the Dot com boom.

The capital value is now worth £113,893 & the Dividends recieved in the last 10 years are £36,980

Therefore total performance is £113,893 + £36,980 = £150,873

That is over a 100% return over a 10 year period or 10% a year.

It is worth considering three points, a) Investment was near the peak of the boom & b) We have had one of the worst recessions & c) Performance is without dividend reinvestment

What would the performance have been if it was in a rising market rather then a sideways market?

What is clear to me is HYP works and PYADs method incorporates the following :

- Stock Markets rise over time

- The World's greatest investor is a buy and holder

- Portfolio theory states diversification is a good  thing

- Dividend re-Investment helps with compounding

 Would most people be better of if they just bought HYP's & Reinvested the income and never sold unless they were forced to via corporate actions?

 It is a fact that a large portion of the gains in the stock market comes from Dividends.

In reply to Isaac, post #164

"....That is over a 100% return over a 10 year period or 10% a year...."

No it isn't  it is 7% pa which is much less praiseworthy.

And as for the proposition that PYAD's so-called HYP approach "works". It is worth pointing out that even PYAD himself has never advocated HYP as a sensible approach for anyone except a limited subset of investors in very specific circumstances. It is conceived merely as an alternative to buying an annuity. That is why it ignores the need to preserve capital and concentrates exclusively on the cash income received from dividends. (This derives from the fact that annuities expire without value on the death of the annuitant).

For most of us the value of our capital is vitally important and that means that the core tenet of HYP is completely and utterly wrong. Wrong in concept, wrong in principle, wrong in practice, wrong in outcome.

HYP is a disastrous approach for most investors. It substitutes reliance on the wisdom of a self proclaimed investment guru in place of self reliance and DYOR.

It advocates leaving the capital value of your portfolio unmonitored, unmanaged and unprotected. It is based on the conceit that investors can make decisions at a single point in time which remain "correct" for an unlimited period of many years.

IMHO it is simply deluded, dangerous and dysfunctional.

Hi Isaac,

Horses for courses, I suppose.

It is a fact that a large portion of the gains in the stock market comes from Dividends

KNOC has just taken my DNX off me for GBP 18 (bought @2.54) and is supposedly sniffing around PMO - coincidentally also currently @ GBP 18 (bought @ 2.96).

E + P co's don't usually pay divs, so don't fit into a HYP model......but are deffo worth having, IMHO.....;>

RG

Sure, your using 7%pa compounded, but essentially we come to the same number.

extrader

I love E+P investing, pretty simple and logical way of making money, However the fact is commodities won't be booming forever so there comes a point where you have to cut and run and Invest in something else.

On the other hand the HYP is a forever strategy, except if yields dropped to 1-2% because of crazy high valuations people may wish to sell or just hold onto it for income.

I would probably add one tweak to PYAD's HYP and that is to sell anything that drops 20% from its peak. This would help reduce losses from stocks like LLOY/RBS/BP. situations etc

I would probably add one tweak to PYAD's HYP and that is to sell anything that drops 20% from its peak. This would help reduce losses from stocks like LLOY/RBS/BP. situations etc

Ah, the benefits of the old retroscope!

Using the aforesaid instrument, have you checked to see what affect cutting a company if it drops 20%, would have had on Pyads HYP portfolio?

By the way, Buffetts' early years most definitely weren't characterised by LTBH. The later years saw him managing a gigantic portfolio, with some huge positions. While I understand the point he makes about investing with the governments tax money, I think you'll find his strategy was forced to some degree by the size of those positions. It's not easy to move large stakes. I hope one day you'll find that out yourself!

As for HYP investing, I may well use something like that with my SIPP funds, but I'll be far more active than PYAD claims one should be.

Buffy

Ah, the benefits of the old retroscope!

I expect big companies to lose significant value just like LLOY/RBS etc did in the future. Big companies don't stay big forever, markets change and some companies can't adapt to that change and subsequently drop in value.

Using the aforesaid instrument, have you checked to see what affect cutting a company if it drops 20%, would have had on Pyads HYP portfolio?

No I have not. What I do know is if you lose 20% of a holding you need to make back 25% to get back to your starting position. Is that achievable in a reasonable time frame ? Most definetly Yes! And 20% is a decent enough "stop loss" for a very large behemoth IMO.

Whereas if you held onto a LLOY and it is now worth about £800 then that would have to grow 600% just for one to get back to the original £5k. How long will that take? Maybe 20 years........Or it may never happen.

I think Dividend Re-Investing works, but RG has highlighted the problems with PYAD's approach very clearly & therefore as you say I would be more active in HYP Investing.

That is why it ignores the need to preserve capital and concentrates exclusively on the cash income received from dividends. (This derives from the fact that annuities expire without value on the death of the annuitant).

For most of us the value of our capital is vitally important and that means that the core tenet of HYP is completely and utterly wrong. Wrong in concept, wrong in principle, wrong in practice, wrong in outcome.

HYP is a disastrous approach for most investors. It substitutes reliance on the wisdom of a self proclaimed investment guru in place of self reliance and DYOR.

It advocates leaving the capital value of your portfolio unmonitored, unmanaged and unprotected. It is based on the conceit that investors can make decisions at a single point in time which remain "correct" for an unlimited period of many years.

In reply to Isaac, post #167

Isaac

you say "...essentially we come to the same number..."

that's not correct

you said PYAD's HYP achieved 10% pa

I pointed out that your own figures showed it to have achieved only 7% pa

that means you overstated the return achieved by PYAD by almost 50% (the difference between 7% and 10%)

If we are to appraise any investment strategy/performance and conduct an intelligent discussion then it is necessary to maintain objectivity and accuracy about its actual achievements. That means not overstating its results by 50%.....

Does London lead the housing market in the UK?

Well Iain Duncan Smith is saying the GAME IS OVER on the Andrew Marr show this morning for the landlords that are charging sky high rents!

Mr Duncan Smith also hit back at claims that a planned cap on housing benefit payments will lead to "social cleansing" of Britain's inner cities, as people on benefits are forced to move to cheaper areas.

He said the plans would actually force private rents down in the inner cities, and the number of people who would be forced to move would be in "a very low number of thousands".

"Because we are 40% of the rental market, we drove all the rents up in places like London.

"So that if you are a working person, on low or marginal income, you can't afford to live in central London, you have to be on benefits or incredibly wealthy."

He said his message to private landlords was "the game is over, these rents are coming down".

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11752421

All those expensive city centre flats must come down! I think all the ingredients are falling into place for a decent sized correction in the Residential property market......

Andrew Marr Show from 24 mins in : http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00w79fd/The_Andrew_Marr_Show_14_11_2010/

POG having another nice day.....Whooosh! ;-D

Up at £10.91 ... I still think it is going significantly higher over the next 3-6 months. First target is £12

That's me out of RBS ... about B/E I'd say. That was a bad trade!

RBS will probably go higher from here ... Hard to say but I don't expect to make much progress 5-10% max in the short term?

I personally think we have seen our santa rally. We have about 3-4 weeks of market action left before markets die down for the holidays. Just don't see much progress being made in the next 3-4 weeks, infact I think it is a good time to have a decent correction before resuming the long term uptrend in 2011.

Lets face it most fund managers have probably made the bulk of their cash now. Is there any point in commiting more money to the markets at this stage ?

If I was a fund manager I would want to push down the markets so one has a lower starting point in 2011 and it is easier to have a giid YTD in 2011.

I'm happy to hold onto the rest of my portfolio and ride out any corrections as I still believe this market has a lot more in it longer term.

Third-quarter earnings season in the US is nearly over. And what a season it has been.

As I write, 458 of the S&P 500 firms have reported. Expectations foresaw 24% earnings growth - big, but still too low - a bullish surprise. As of now, blended earnings growth is at 31%, signalling a healthier economy and increasing profitability just as people think the economy is so maggoty. Not so!

Assuming the quarter ends with US corporate profit growth above 30%, it will be the fourth consecutive quarter of 30% plus growth which is the first time that’s happened since quarterly data has been tracked (1947). That’s not just interesting trivia, it’s also bullish. Profits rarely rise over 30% year-on-year - never mind for consecutive quarters. But when it happens, the next 12 months are overwhelmingly above average.

So far, 72% of firms have beaten analyst expectations, 9% were in line and 19% missed. (Typically, 62% beat expectations and 20% miss.) On average, firms are beating estimates by 7% - the average since 1994 is 2% above estimates. However you slice it, third-quarter earnings are impressive and broad-based.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/13324/earnings-ba-da-boom