May or May Not for >20%.......

Tedious, I know, but it will have to be SOCO International (LON:SIA) for +20%. See my previous 15,000 comments for reasons.

And if nothing happens in May (or on April 30th) then you can put me down for June too.

I'm not going to pick any individual company for the down 20%. But a clue as to a group that I think may struggle in May can be found here.

ee

GKP for the 20%,

BOR for 20% down. All the Falkland Island Oilies operating in the South are on to a hiding to nothing imv.

I rarely enter but will go for PCI this month for up 20% on the basis of news of proposed changes to the stand-off over Italian drilling,

No down for me.

EE, i see your skepticism re Falklands Explorers. The article you linked too gave me the impression you think they might fall on more Argentinian trouble? Down is statistically more likely than up of course on the drilling front, but is there much reason to think Argentinian noise will impact the SP?

Leek

In reply to Leekgo, post #3

The article you linked too gave me the impression you think they might fall on more Argentinian trouble? Down is statistically more likely than up of course on the drilling front, but is there much reason to think Argentinian noise will impact the SP?

IMO people are too complacent on political risk re Falklands - that is all. Nothing to do with drilling (though initial BOR results seem relatively inconclusive, considering the price moves in BOR/FOGL relative to their pre-drill levels).

The UK isn't particularly well-positioned strategically, IMO, given the logistical issues.

I'd also observe that the Falklands seems to attract more than its "fair share" of publicity, given the fact that it is a new and extremely remote basin. That may all turn out to be well-justified if Loligo comes in anywhere near the hopes of some - but if it doesn't then things will look a good deal iffier, IMO. I'd be happy to have a small punt on Loligo, but probably not from these levels.

Up Aminex (AEX) for me please. Hopefully the Ntorya 1 gas pay testing will be completed in May.

No down.

Impvesta

May

20% gain during May Magnolia Petroleum (LON:MAGP) Magnolia Petroleum
Thought – Long term I really fancy this US O&G firm to be something special, however during May I feel this could also be a fair candidate for the 20% gain with hopefully some completed well results being released. Also, with the COO visiting London for a week mid May to get the Magnolia Petroleum story out, a shot in the arm could also result from this.

20% loss during May Matra Petroleum (LON:MTA) Matra Petroleum
Thought - The news of a new strategic investor and a raising of £4.6m was excellent news for the company and improves the investment outlook imo, however the share price has increased 200% during April and with the amount of shares in issue now raising to just under 2b, I fear it might be a fair candidate for the 20% loss in May.

In reply to Elias Jones, post #6

Been watching JKX for a while, it's bumped around a bit over the last year or so but looks ready to start moving forward again. 20% in view.
Hope ee is right on Soco. Didn't move much at all in April, hopefully the share buy backs will help it regain some ground, or that some game-changing development comes through. Would like some money for JKX!
No down.

In reply to emptyend, post #4

IMO people are too complacent on political risk re Falklands - that is all. Nothing to do with drilling (though initial BOR results seem relatively inconclusive, considering the price moves in BOR/FOGL relative to their pre-drill levels).

The UK isn't particularly well-positioned strategically, IMO, given the logistical issues.

I'd also observe that the Falklands seems to attract more than its "fair share" of publicity, given the fact that it is a new and extremely remote basin. That may all turn out to be well-justified if Loligo comes in anywhere near the hopes of some - but if it doesn't then things will look a good deal iffier, IMO. I'd be happy to have a small punt on Loligo, but probably not from these levels.

  Well, the UK government have already replied saying that Argentina has no jurisdiction at all and so their threatening letters should be and will be ignored.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9218504/Foreign-Office-letter-to-banks-over-Argentinas-Falklands-oil-threats.html

FOGL have already taken legal advice and this corresponds with the UK governments view that there is no jurisdiction at all - its legally baseless. It could be a problem if you have assets in Argentina - but as none of the Falkland explorers do - there is no threat at all.

Those that are not invested in the Falklands will continue to run stories of whatever lies Buenos Aires deems suitable to put out - the Argentine government is very happy their "PR" campaign keeps getting picked up by those that disklike Falklands oil companies and want to, lets say, dismiss them and their prospects. Such a terrible shame that UK media is supporting the Argentines by running their lies.

The Argentines have no decent army, no navy and no air force. Owing to the terrible state of their nation they have spent nothing on the military for 30 years and pose no threat at all, which is why they have resorted to playing the media with baseless threats which have no legal back up.

For sure in May an Argentine Kangeroo court is going to rule in favour of the Argentine government and declare all sorts of things - but the net effect of this will be - nothing - and everyone knows that now. Their verdict will only be relevent in Argentina and guess what - all Falklands companies have no assets in Argentina and do not rely on Argentine for anything.

Probably in May the pro-Argentine elements of the UK media will disrespect the memories of those that lost their lives 30 years ago and yet again run whatever lies the Argentine government PR team wishes to throw out.

If you look at the bigger picture they are nationilising YPF and stealing it from an International company, this will backfire big time on them and hopefully will result in them being kicked out of the G20. Already the Washington Post (which often leaks the feelings of the US government) is suggesting that pro-UK Chile should be promoted into the G20 and Argentina should be kicked out.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/04/23/washington-post-suggests-replacing-argentina-with-chile-at-the-g20

All of the permanent members of the UN security council have "islands and terriories" in various places that are claimed by others - every one of them has a veto vote, including the UK. Which is why Argentina is powerless - setting precedent with the UK would have a big negative influence on Chinese, Russian, American, French etc... claims to various parcels of land all over the world - and they are not going to do anything.

Which is why Argentina has only one thing it can do, lie and bad mouth to the media and hope that plenty of suckers are ready to run their stories - which is seems there is, for now. However, how many times will they cry wolf before even those that run their stories get bored and starts to ignore them..........

 .

Never mind the political posturing. The hard fact that Falklands investors have to consider is the cost of installing infrastructure in such a remote and environmentally hostile region. Obviously that cost is compounded by making the sensible assumption that co-operation from "nearby" countries (Argentina, Brazil) cannot be expected. I put "nearby" in quotes because even with co-operation, the distances involved are large and logistics difficult.

Clearly, explo. minnows will not be able to fund the necessary multi-$bn investment themselves. Even with explo. success, potential partners are likely to strike a very hard bargain, given the massive investment and risk they will be expected to undertake to develop discoveries - and the very long timeframes involved. Does anyone seriously expect any oil/LNG/condensate to be shipped out of the Falklands in much under 10 years?

Maybe good for a quick 20% upside/downside speculative trade (aided by frequent optimistic BB posting in an attempt to nudge/support the SP) but not what I'd call an "investment".

LC says Q2 2016 for first oil.

But of course, lots of people anti-Falklands who have missed out on so much profit so far, who first said there was no oil and who now, having lost that one, claim its decades to production - know much more than very rich and powerful Falklands businessmen of course, men who are involved in building a new deepwater port on the Islands to ensure logistics is no problem at all.

http://www.qatar-tribune.com/data/20120402/content.asp?section=Business2_3


..........“Hopefully, the first barrel of Falklands oil will come out in the second quarter of 2016,” Lewis Clifton, managing director of Byron Marine, told AFP................

In reply to Proselenes, post #10

Hmmm... would that be this Lewis Clifton? http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/final/darwin_clifton.pdf

"Hopefully..." just about says it all.

For avoidance of doubt, I am anything but "anti-Falklands" [my step-brotehr served there], but I do wonder what the prospects are for investors in smallcap. oilies there, for the reasons I've stated. I wish genuine investors every success but have no time for those who seek to take advantage of inexperienced investors/speculators.

In reply to Proselenes, post #10

But of course, lots of people anti-Falklands who have missed out on so much profit so far

I think you would do very much better to hold your tongue and stick to the facts, instead of making yourself look an idiot:

Sure those who were in at under 60p on the latest dip are showing a decent m-t-m profiit.....but there are plenty of others who are well under water to date. Of course if you meant some other company, then you should have been more specific - but there are more whose investors have lost money than have made money so far.

As you know, I think there is a reasonable case for having a punt on some of the Falklands wells, if this can be put on at the right price. But it doesn't mean that one should gaily ignore timelines, logistics or politics - all of which seem likely to be much more adverse than the bulls would have people believe.

ee

The monthly oil stock competition for May is still open. Deadline for entries "midnight today" on Monday 30 April 2012.

rgds,
fb

Hi FB.

Up VPP (Valiant Petroleum). Two drill results due in May.

Down SIA (Soco International). Mid-May should see Interim Management Statement.

Thanks.

Hi FB,

For me I'll take Genel Energy (LON:GENL) for the up competition, and Nighthawk Energy (LON:HAWK) for the down.

Cheers,
SM

Hi FB,

up AFR

down AEX

thanks

fb