Forgot February is a "Short" month! ;-) Apologies for the delay in posting! The deadline for entry is moved to Midnight on Monday 4 March 2013. The share prices at that time will be used as the starting prices for the purpose of calculating the increases in March.
For the March 2013 “>20%” monthly oil stock competitions, which oil stocks will have the greatest move for
(i) >20% gain?
(ii) >20% loss?
You may enter two stocks, one for (i) and one for (ii). More than one person may enter the same stock. The deadline for the March competition is midnight on Monday 4 March 2013. Results will be posted on this thread asap after the March month end.
Good luck!!!!!
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6 Posts on this Thread show/hide all
With the court case finally over, and just awaiting the judge's written conclusion has to be
GKP for +20%
For the Down, AEX.
Quite frothy today but no RNS.
TRAP for the +20%.
Sellers appear to be clear. Company actively doing some PR. 2 drills in progress (Scotney and Magnolia). Real revenue of over 2m pounds a month coming in from Athena. Company is presently only valued at cash + Athena projected cash. All exploration (carried to first oil in most cases so zero cost) is in for free. Scotney and Magnolia are both due to complete end of March or early April. Scotney worth 25p a share on P50 levels and Magnolia perhaps 2p a share. Not too bad when you consider the current share price of 15p only really reflects cash and projected cash from Athena production. So its due a mighty move up at some point now the overhang appears clear and the sellers who crashed the share price are gone.
RRL for the -20%
Whilst I am tempted to go for my newest holding, Trap, I am not sure whether either of their current drills (Scotney and Magnolia) will be completed in time and will therefore go for:
Aminex (AEX) please, on the expectation that a market pleasing farmout deal will be announced during March.
No down.
AEX for >20% please.
In many ways this is a make or break month, as
a) the farm in at Ruvuma should give us a good indication of the value that the industry places on AEX Tanzanian assets.
b) We should hear about USA asset disposal.
I am very positive about a) above - such is the level of interest in Tanzania at the moment that anything other than a good result really would be a set back. In terms of b) I am cautious - not a good market to be selling into at the moment.
Aminex also vulnerable to a takeover imho, and I would not be surprised if that is another angle to both a) and b). Not necessarily as a target on its own, but as part of a wider consolidation as the majors move in.
Other variables include a spin off to the Ruvama farmin being expressions of interest in a Nyuni/Kiliwani farm in.
I would be surprised if the Board aren't busting a gut to get this sorted asap, and keen to provide a more general update as part of the finals. I accept though that commercial factors could see this dragging on beyond March.
Aminex has an intrinsic value in its own right, but may well have a greater value strategically as part of a wider jig saw puzzle. It remains my second largest holding.
Hi fb,
For the >20% TRAP please, and
For the <20% AEX, - has already moved up a lot on pure speculation.
It's unusual for Russia focused oil & gas companies making waves in this competition.
RPO's share price has been under pressure almost relentlessly since March last year.
It'd be interesting to see if the recent rise was a dead cat bounce or something more with
substance. Congratulations to Mw for winning the >20% Up Competition! Just edging
out Superg1's IOF, by only 0.2%!
SER's poor performing share price continued, badly needing turnaround pieces of news.
Congratulations to Angein1 for winning the >20% Down Competition!
The two set of competition results are shown below:
">20% Up" Competition Results:
-5.5% Average
">20% Down" Competition Results:
-13.2% Average
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