North Korea

In reply to emptyend, post #74

Hmmm... the rest of the article is rather less positive. :0( [might have been updated since originally posted]

The succession issue discussed here might be the key to real progress: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/party-strings-attached-to-north-korean-successor-kim-jong-un/story-e6frg6so-1225917636588

More recent news indicates that the conference mentioned in the above article has been delayed: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/09/113_73114.html

The conference may not take place for another week-and-a-half because Pyongyang is opening a week-long international film festival Friday.

The mind boggles concerning what might be shown there??!!

Hey, ee, fancy this tour?: http://koreakonsult.com/program_film%20festival%202010_eng.html

:0)

Cheers,

Mark

In reply to emptyend, post #74

Small positive steps - and better than sabre-rattling.

Do you think that will go some way to offset the attack on the South Korean-built Deepwater Horizon by a North Korean mini-sub?

A North Korean Mini Submarine manned by  “suicidal” 17th Sniper Corps soldiers attacked the Deepwater Horizon with what are believed to be 2 incendiary torpedoes causing a massive explosion... 48 hours later it committed its final atrocity by exploding itself directly beneath the Deepwater Horizon, causing the $1 Billion oil rig to sink beneath the seas and marking 2010’s celebration of Earth Day with one of the largest environmental catastrophes our World has ever seen.

Great stuff. And perfect fodder for a few conservative bloggers.

SW10

Further small steps forward.

North Korea to hold leadership meeting on September 28

North Korea's ruling party is to hold a conference next week to elect new leaders, the Stalinist state's official KCNA news agency said on Monday.

"The conference of the WPK (Workers' Party of Korea) for electing its supreme leadership body will take place in Pyongyang on September 28," the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8014813/North-Korea-to-hold-leadership-meeting-on-September-28.html

Good atricle in todays Daily Telegraph which reads well from a long term Aminex perspective.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8017604/North-Korea-the-hermit-emerges.html

...and two steps back...

North and South Korea on the brink of war

In Moscow's bleakest assessment of the situation on the Korean peninsula yet, Russian deputy foreign minister Alexei Borodavkin said tensions between the two countries were running at their highest and most dangerous level in a decade.

"Tensions on the Korean Peninsula could not be any higher. The only next step is a conflict," he told foreign policy experts at a round table on the subject in Moscow.

Clearly has no impact on the valuation of £AEX but investors in Emerging Markets funds/ETFs with exposure to South Korea should be alert to this becoming reality and be ready to act if necessary.

In reply to StrollingMolby, post #79

Hi SM,

investors in Emerging Markets funds/ETFs with exposure to South Korea should be alert to this becoming reality and be ready to act if necessary

Thanks for the warning... but they do say "buy on the bullets". ;0)

Seriously, though, I think this is hyperbole by the Russians. All-out war doesn't appear to be in anyone's interest. Without support from Russia or China, NK's position would be pretty hopeless and I can't see either of those two powers backing NK in an armed conflict. In particular, relations between the US and Russia/China are much improved since the 1950s, though remain far from perfect.

Cheers,

Mark

Mark

I think that the "only" worry is good old Kim lobbing his nukes over the DNZ and a mass of bio and chem tipped artillery shells raining down on Soeul.

Other than that, I cant see Russia/China being involved.

So, nowt to worry about then really.

Sheesh

A little article re Gazprom visiting the DPRK for talks on energy co-operation:

http://en.rian.ru/business/20110706/165053989.html

(yes, its a quiet day.....)

Was glancing through this 2009 article quoting GS research.

"A unified Korea could surpass economic powers such as France, Germany and Japan in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) in only a few decades, Goldman Sachs said in a report Monday. It pointed out that North Korea's mineral riches could especially help the South."

"He expected strong synergy between the South and North, especially thanks to minerals. "North Korea has large potential deposits of minerals, including magnesite, coal, uranium and iron ore, valued at around 140 times North Korea's 2008 GDP at current market prices," the analyst said, adding that the South has virtually no such resources."

http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2009/09/123_52202.html

What happened to the 10% Kobril stake and the accompanying natural resource rights? Did that just quietly disappear when the East Sea PSA and Chosun popped up?

No mention here http://www.aminex-plc.com/projects/dprk

Kim Jong-Il reported dead.

It must be in the interest of China to move in and help improve the situation in North Korea, it looks as if the possibility of a "spring" is out of the question.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16239940

Well someone has faith in what AEX is doing.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112190700191806U

http://bit.ly/sRDeY8


Shabbadabbadoo2 - 29 Dec'11 - 12:44 - 16167 of 16181

Getting gas shows here now would not surprise me - didn't they get shows from 200 foot (metres?) at Likonde?

seball - 29 Dec'11 - 12:48 - 16168 of 16181

Shows this early on would be a good sign... Will they update the market on oil/gas shows? They did'nt with the last well... Anyway here is hoping the RUMOUR is true...

Pro_S2009 - 29 Dec'11 - 13:20 - 16174 of 16181

So as there were gas shows throughout Likonde-1, you should expect the same with Ntorya-1

BunBooster2 - 29 Dec'11 - 13:22 - 16175 of 16181

Seems to be more than rumour now from various corners.

Special Economic District in North Korea

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article303104.ece

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering will team with a Chinese company in advancing into a special economic district in North Korea, a leading South Korean newspaper has reported.

If this move emulates my experience with 'economic zones' across the border in China then there could be some exciting times ahead for AEX.

The Chinese mastered a system whereby economic activity was allowed to develop under a capitalist system inside a communist and centralised economy.  These 'zones' IMO, created the opportunity for the modern China we see today. For those of a speedy disposition it only took a handful of years to instigate a complete new offshore drilling industry in the South China Sea. (Bohai, in the North - on the Chinese side -  was fairly well established already).

passinthru

Whilst preparing for tomorrow's AGM and giving Aminex's AR a thorough once-over, I noticed this sentence re NK (p4):

Aminex will also seek to reduce exposure to its exploration interests off the Korean peninsula by working with regional partners better able to shoulder the costs of the exploration programme and to manage the long-term political nature of this project.

It does occur to me that this could be one reason for Dr Chan Chai's interest in Aminex. Surely those NK licences would make far more sense in Chinese hands that Irish/UK ones? I can see little to stop a Chinese company from getting work on those licences underway in the near future, whereas obviously it would be politically impossible for a Western company to do so.

If my guess on this is right, it would then be down to Stuard (who has a good track record in that regard) to maximise shareholder value for those licences. If Aminex can retain evena small share of a massive farm out, that could be very interesting indeed (given the geological prospectivity of the licences), though even doing that might be very difficult politically, whilst NK remains under western sanctions.

Looking forward to tomorrow and to meeting Stuard. :0)

Cheers,

Mark

Mark

My current reading of things is that Stuard has a depth of strategic plans that go beyond what the market has priced in (if indeed anything), and like yourself have long thought that NK must be the attractor to Dr Chai, even if the interest is dressed up as being in respect of Tanzania.

I am hoping for a brokers note tomorrow to clarify things a bit further, but I guess any major announcement will be based on the dealmaking timetable, rather than the wish to announce something at the AGM. But if the two happened to coincide I think the word is serendipity.

The day job prevents me attending AGM's, and if you are able to post your views I for one (and I am sure many others) would be beyond grateful.

Regards

dbfromgb

Looking forward to seeing you again tomorrow, Mark. First time for a London AGM. Much prefer Dublin, cheaper which leaves more for the guinness.

In reply to djpreston, post #90

Look forward to seeing you too, Darron, as well as various other familiar faces. :0)

dbfromgb, I'll do my best to write a report for ShareSoc's members' network and will post a link here. I can see some other alternatives for Stuard's "bigger picture" and will try to get a feel. I also note the phrase "By leveraging our Full Listing..." ;0)

My investment remains small until I have a clearer picture of where this company is going.

Cheers,

Mark

I also see from Note 23 to the accounts, that there is a commitment to acquire 5,000km of seismic on the East Sea Bay licence by May 2012.

Hardly surprisingly they are walking away from NK.

In reply to nigelpm, post #93

Looks like it, per the IMS. So, seems unlikely that the Chinese interest was in the NK licences after all. Will clarify/confirm at the AGM.

Unfortunately, little good news in the IMS, esp. re KN-1. I will try to get a better handle on the Tanz. politics there.