North Korea

it does raise the prospect of unification which whilst unlikely would no doubt muddy the waters in respect of Aminex's agreement with a sovereign state that no longer existed.

I dare say that people will worry over muddied waters - but it is worth noting that it remains the case that AEX know more about the geology of DPRK's basins than the DPRK does itself. AEX has all the data and a large slice of the total technical expertise available to DPRK.

Do you really think any new partner would benefit by simply ignoring AEX and starting again?

I'd also point to the recent analogy of West and East Germany, where (AFAIAA) the economically much more powerful West honoured all the East's contracts, unifying the currency on terms that were extremely favourable to holders of East German assets and then proceeded to invest heavily in upgrading Eastern infrastructure and industry.

You don't "unify" if you ride roughshod over the weaker party's history and interests.

ee

The meeting predicted back on 18th Sept did happen it seems.......

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a3FPw2w16PTo

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang yesterday amid heightened diplomatic efforts to convince Kim’s regime to return to stalled international talks on its nuclear programs.

......Wen was accompanied by Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, China’s top envoy to the so-called six-party talks, Xinhua said

Wen’s three-day visit comes after Kim told a Chinese envoy last month his government is ready to engage in “bilateral and multilateral talks” on its nuclear programs. The U.S. is willing to engage North Korea directly to restart the nuclear talks, Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said on Sept. 30 in Seoul.

I think Kim Jong-Il looks great.  It's as if he is acting out a part as a comedy bond villain.

(I do understand that NK is a murderous regime)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8291882.stm

North Korea says it is willing to return to six-party international talks on its nuclear weapons programme, state media has reported.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il made the announcement to Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who is visiting Pyongyang, said North Korea's KCNA news agency.

But Pyongyang said the return would be dependent on the progress of its planned bilateral talks with the US....

More in the FT today:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ace68bc-b207-11de-a271-00144feab49a.html

and a piece in today's New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/07/world/asia/07korea.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

the basic gist of which is that China is keen to prevent North Korea imploding. No direct mention of oil or AEX, though.

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader gave an unusually exuberant welcome this week to the prime minister of China, whose trip was intensely monitored by the rest of the world for progress on efforts to halt North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

Korean Central News Agency, via Reuters

Premier Wen Jiabao of China, center, with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, right, on Monday in Pyongyang, North Korea.

But the deal struck by the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China had far more to do with the two countries’ shared goal — stability in North Korea.

Man Siarad

It looks as though the Chinese, South Koreans and Japanese are gradually coming together on a joint approach to Pyongyang, though  the Japanese are playing hardball by asking for details of the Japanese citixens abducted by the North Koreans in the past.

Still, clearly something happening, though.

It occurs to me that all three countries are currently on an active drive to acquire E & P assets in the Middle East, Africa etc. All those potential reserves so close to home must look rather attractive...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/world/asia/10korea.html?_r=1&ref=world

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea and Japan closed ranks on North Korea on Friday, adding a new demand to their proposed bargain for the North to abandon its nuclear program and vowing to enforce United Nations sanctions until they are convinced that the country will do so.

The plea for the renewal of the talks, “so as to safeguard peace and stability in Northeast Asia,” came in a statement issued at the end of a meeting of Premier Wen Jiabao of China, President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea and the new Japanese prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama.

Man Siarad

and yet more from Beijing

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/world/asia/11korea.html?ref=world

BEIJING — China’s prime minister called Saturday for the United States and North Korea to engage in a “conscientious and constructive dialogue” aimed at reviving multilateral talks over the North’s nuclear weapons program.

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il, suggested in a meeting with China’s premier last week that his country would return to multilateral talks if the United States held bilateral talks and if those negotiations went well. The United States has said it would hold talks with North Korea, but only if they quickly lead to the resumption of multilateral deliberations aimed at resolving the nuclear issue.

The statement by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao seemed to indicate that China was ready to take a more active role in trying to end the standoff between the United States and North Korea, but it remains unclear if he won concessions from the North that will induce Washington to enter into bilateral talks....

It looks as though the Chinese are really getting active in trying to start negotiations moving again.

I'm not holding my breath, though.

Man Siarad 

the Japanese are playing hardball by asking for details of the Japanese citixens abducted by the North Koreans in the past

Maybe I'm being naive, but insisting on information regarding their own citizens who were abducted hardly seem like "playing hardball" to me! How can they do otherwise? Surely it's their moral and ethical duty to do what they can to protect their own citizens, above all else?

Mark,

Maybe I'm being naive, but insisting on information regarding their own citizens who were abducted hardly seem like "playing hardball" to me! How can they do otherwise? Surely it's their moral and ethical duty to do what they can to protect their own citizens, above all else?

You're right, of course - they SHOULD ask. But if I understood the story right, this is the first time that they've added this particular topic to their negotiating position vis-a-vis North Korea. Hence my feeling that they're taking a tougher approach.

Why, I wonder? Perhaps because they think that North Korea is now getting into such a parlous economic state (missles and bombs notwithstanding) that there's now an opportunity to push this issue onto, and up, the agenda?

Man Siarad

if I understood the story right, this is the first time that they've added this particular topic to their negotiating position vis-a-vis North Korea. Hence my feeling that they're taking a tougher approach.

No - it has been a regular feature of the Japanese position since at least 2005 (because they then thought DPRK wanted to settle and could therefore push them harder for reasons of domestic Japanese political positioning).

The difficulty is that the matter now goes back some 25-30 years and, as is plain from the lists in the wiki , there are likely to be ample opportunities to argue about the facts in the absence of DNA proof. 

Since this issue probably cannot be perfectly resolved, given the passage of time, it becomes a matter of how hard the Japanese wish to pursue it when there are other potential benefits that are in conflict with the abduction issue (such as suspension/termination of rocket testings etc). I'd find it difficult to conceive that, if this were the only issue, a deal could not be reached.

It is putting it mildly to say that the Japanese/DPRK relationship is a complex one.....see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan%E2%80%93Korea_disputes

ee

You want to run North Korea's 3G network? No problem, would you also just finish this 107-storey hotel, the Ryugyong, which was started 22 years ago and then put on ice 16 years ago?

The company charged with finishing the Ryugyong is Orascom Telecom, part of an Egyptian conglomerate that took on the rebuilding work - "in partnership with a local firm" - as part of a $400m deal to build and run a 3G mobile phone network in North Korea.

(BBC)

'Core competence' is perhaps not yet part of the regime's dictionary of business terms. What next? AEX to run a national dairy? GSK to step-in and help out the shipbuilders?

You have to wonder if Orascom know what they have let themselves in for, with reported problems including suspect concrete and misaligned lift shafts...

SW10

Wonder whether part of the spec is to link the listening devices that are pre-installed in all the rooms to the same monitoring system as the 3G network? LOL :0)

North Korea accuses the South's navy of entering its waters and threatens a possible response.

They DO like blowing hot and cold...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/16/world/asia/16korea.html?ref=world

---
SEOUL, South Korea — The North Korean military on Thursday accused South Korean warships of trespassing near the North’s west coast, a reminder to its neighbors that it can raise tensions even as its government reaches out for talks with the United States and South Korea.

The Defense Ministry in Seoul called the North Korean claim “preposterous.” But the North Korean military made clear its stance.

“The reckless military provocations by warships of the South Korean Navy have created such a serious situation that a naval clash may break out between the two sides in these waters,” the North’s state-run news agency said.

Its warning came three days after the North test-fired five short-range missiles off its east coast....

“It’s a typical North Korean tactic to use both dialogue and pressure, sometimes simultaneously, sometimes consecutively, to achieve its goal,” said Chon Hyun-joon, an analyst at the government-financed Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. “Kim Jong-il’s problem is that South Korea and the United States have gotten used to the game he plays.”

Mr. Kim, the North Korean leader, is known for the tactic of sending mixed signals: letting his negotiators reach out to South Korea and the United States while ordering his military to strengthen its leverage by reminding the negotiating partners of what might happen if the talks failed, Mr. Chon said.


---

Apologies - for some reason the symbols allowing me to embolden or italicise text have disappeared.

Man Siarad

Meeting in New York
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8324465.stm

Hopefully this will lead to all the parties sitting down again and actually making progress. It does make one think whether on this occasion this is the real opportunity to move forward positively. The Obama administration have now settled in - lets see what happens this time.

DPRK calls for talks with the USA:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8337187.stm

ee

In reply to ManSiarad (post #47)

The argument between the two Koreas off the west coast of what the Daily Telegraph headline writer calls the "Peninsular" seems to be hotting up a bit...

(The picture is pretty much irrelevant

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/6535100/North-and-South-Korean-warships-in-naval-skirmish.html

North and South Korean warships have been involved in an exchange of fire along a disputed sea border area off the west coast of the Korean Peninsular, according to South Korean military officials.

 

By Peter Foster in Beijing
Published: 4:07AM GMT 10 Nov 2009

South Korean Navy patrol boats Photo: AP

The clash comes at time when relations between the divided nations appeared to be thawing following several months of increased tensions caused by North Korea's decision to test a second nuclear device earlier this year.

Initial reports said that there were no casualties from the exchange, which took place after a South Korean warship fired shots across the bow of a North Korean naval vessel that had crossed the disputed border, according to the Yonhap news agency in Seoul.

The North Korean vessel then returned fire according to an unidentified government source in South Korea, who declined to provide further details.

 

Man Siarad

 

Interesting to see Hilary Clinton has confirmed US envoy still planning to go to North Korea before year end.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8354066.stm

I wonder whether the sea clash was just to maintain momentum by North Korea with Obama due in Asia soon - no definitely not that's me being cynical :¬)

REO

A balanced article and perhaps again highlighting the fine line between making progress.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/20/north-korea-denuclearisation

From Oilbarrel presentation October 28th.... North Korea - At last making some progress again, talking to a potential partner........, novation of existing agreements essential, and

Visit planned for November

And from the interim statement simply

 Renegotiations with the Korean Oil Industry Ministry are due to commence during the fourth quarter in Pyongyang.

 Given that there is nothing in the price for Korea, even slow progress resulting from these meetings should surely reignite interest? A novation (and by implication ratification) of the existing agreement, and the revealing of partner possibilities, would on the other hand be major news, notwithstanding broader political issues remaining unresolved? And they may be out their now discussing these issues.

So no shortage of potentially interesting newsflow in the next couple of months!

dbfromgb

Just spotted a headline flash from DJNW:

US, North Korea have "common understanding" to resume nuclear talks - Bosworth.

 So, scope for progress? Im still not ruling out a surprise from DPRK in the coming year given the comments from the company and the "improvement" in the politics.