Just released here:
http://www.aminex-plc.com/files/Aminex_Oilbarrel_Conference_Wed_28th_Oct_2009.pdf
This thread for discussion of contents therein.
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Aminex PLC is engaged in the exploration for, and the development and production of oil and gas reserves. Its principal area of activities includes the United States, East Africa, North Africa and North Korea. Its segments include Producing Oil and Gas Properties, Exploration Activities and Oilfield Services and Supplies. The Company's licenses in Tanzania include Nyuni PSA, Kiliwani North and Ruvuma PSA. During the year ended December 31, 2010, it drilled three wells, one in Tanzania and two in the United States. As of December 31, 2010, the Company held leases at Shoats Creek covering approximately 2,100 acres. Aminex Oilfield Services & Supply Company (AMOSSCO), its wholly owned subsidiary, provides logistics services to oil industry and sources oilfield equipment and consumables to international oil companies. In March 2012, it announced that Aminex USA, Inc. its subsidiary, completed agreements to sell leases and other assets consisting of the Somerset Field in Texas. more »
21 Posts on this Thread show/hide all
Ruvuma:
Hmm:
KN-1
Nyuni
Seismic reprocessing seems to be turning up more prospects and a prspective new play type.
Existing ISIS mapping includes potential for 1TCF GIP
Reprocessing to be completed by year end.
Two wells to drill
Licence expires mid 2011 focussing attention on need to move forward rapidly
Farm in partners will be sought for new drilling.
West Songo Songo
Well to drill in next couple of years
Limited activity at present (understandably)
Key est pot reserves of 1.3 Tcf
Ruvuma
That is a surprise to me (positive) - I thought I had seen 10%COS
The SC activity in December is also welcome - what sort of costs would be involved on these two shallow wells ?
Oooh DPRK warming up:
Visit planned for November
In reply to djpreston (post #7)
Darron,
Oooh DPRK warming up:
Visit planned for November
Interesting, indeed.
Not that they can say very much at the moment, of course, but it will be interesting to see if anything comes of it.
Given the - err - unpredictability of the DPRK Government, I shall wait for answers to the following questions:
a) is the DPRK aware of the discussions. If so, it would surely indicate that the agreement with the Government is still considered, by Government, to be effectively in force.
b) is the "potential partner" from a country which the DPRK might feel, in its idiosyncratic way, that it can more or less safely offend? Or one it DARE not offend too much , like the Chinese?
Man Siarad
In reply to ManSiarad (post #8)
Id often thought that the most likely (non Chinese) companies would be (obv not US) European, especially the likes of Total or possibly ENI. Lets face it, the French will deal with anyone......
Interesting to see what comes back from the attendees at OB later.
In reply to djpreston (post #9)
Novation of existing agreements essential to move forward positively
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novation
Novation is a term used in contract law and business law to describe the act of either replacing an obligation to perform with a new obligation, or replacing a party to an agreement with a new party... a novation is valid only with the consent of all parties to the original agreement:
I wonder what matters this is addressing.
wrong place but, did any other companies present this a.m? Certain Russian gas company of interest
In reply to macrus (post #11)
This was the line up:
As observed elsewhere - Russian PR ladies are always a welcome presence.....
Good presentation if a somewhat hurried gallop through - chair didnt allow any time for questions :(
Things which were new to me and a bit of colour:
db (not disappointed at the absence of Russian PR ladies - Macrus do you have any specific qs?)
TGG & Hal were most peeved that the quantity of Russian PR pople wasn't up to the usual standard (though quality was highly satisfactory). Times must be hard. :0)
Tony Alves represented Volga. I'm afraid Russian & Kazakh based oil companies are not for me, so I didn't take many notes on those presentations.
Many of the key Aminex points have already been covered in earlier posts on this thread. However, a certain Aminex director ;0) drew my attention to a point in the presentation that is not quite so obvious. You can see from slide 7 that Shoats Creek 2P declared reserves total 4.53mmboe . Slide 9, however, shows an unrisked potential for 18mmboe arrived at following the 3D seismic interpretation (2man years of Aminex effort has gone into that interpretation so far - work is ongoing).
Note also from slide 9, that whilst 55% of that potential is in the deeper Wilcox formation which will need to be farmed out to drill, that means 45% of the potential can be targeted by the shallower, cheaper wells.
Concerning South Malak-1, Brian was quite clear that, if successful, he is expecting this to be an oil well and he described findings so far as "promising". He did, however, say that gas pipelines crossed Aminex's acreage, which i wasn't aware of, so commercialisation of gas is a possibility. TD has been reached in basement and the Nubia formation hasn't been penetrated. Test results are expected in 1-2 weeks. Applying SW10's law, I guess that's 2-4 weeks ;0)
Coming on to Nyuni, Brian indicated that an initial estimate of the size of the KN-1 find is expected by the end of the year, based on the seismic shot this summer (and previous seismic). He is adamant that, contrary to rumours, there is a ready market for the gas in Dar-es-Salaam. Two further wells need to be drilled in the rest of the Nyuni licence by 2011 to retain it.
I asked Brian about the budget for the Likonde-1 well. He indicated that it is $18m gross - which included a possible wellhead for a second drill site and expenditure already incurred, so I understand that this means $9m net to Aminex - but hopefully Brian will have completed the promised farmout before this becomes payable.
I have a bunch of notes on Island Gas Resources but I guess those are the subject of another thread... ;0)
Cheers,
Mark
In reply to marben100 (post #14)
wonder who that might have been ...... ;-)
Fortunately you've already just pointed it out, thus saving me the bother of pointing out (for the umpteenth time today!!) that IMO this is one of the most significant numbers in the whole presentation [especially since 2P reserves for the whole company are only 6.75mn boe as at year end 2008].
Someone asked me earlier how many wells it might take to unlock the full potential of the Frio/Cockfield at SC (ie the 45% part of the 18mn]. The answer seems to be five. Two of these are being drilled by AEX.....and one can reasonably assume that these would be two of the better shots on the acreage - so you can do the math guesstimating what the potential reserves impact might be.
Neither of the two recent notes on the company take account of this upside potential. Note that the Omni note distributed this morning is paid-for research on a similar basis to the previous arrangement with Edison.
As an aside, I found it interesting to observe (having had the benefit of seeing a draft and therefore considered the contents of the presentation beforehand) that most of the people I spoke to about it seemed to have completely missed some of the key bits of information that were provided (in some cases because they were in the overflow room looking out for absent Russian lovelies ;-)). I think the above range of posts has now covered all the important aspects - though whether the right degree of significance has been given to the various points made seems rather less certain to me.........only time and events will tell (sorry I can't elucidate further).
Less important points from the presentation (but ones worth noting) that haven't been covered above are:
a) market value of AEX is equivalent to around $5 per boe of booked 2P (yes I know there was a typo in that line)
b) flow rate of KN-1 at 40 mmcfd (c 6000 boepd) was rough twice best pre-drill hopes
c) partners in Egypt have a very clear incentive to put any discovery on production asap (because then the free carrys end for AEX and others)
d) the figures quoted for Likonde-1 (source-Tullow) [500mmboe in place and 151mmboe recoverable] are P10 numbers. P50 numbers are rather lower. However, of course, any outcome is possible (including, of course, zero). Note that Brian observed that "we think (these figures) are reasonably conservative" ....for what thats worth - which obviously isn't much in a very uncertain pre-drill situation.
I also enquired re the unexpected depth/sequences at South Malek-1 (in the context of having seismic). The answer is that there is extensive salt and anhydrite all around the Gulf of Suez, and such wide variations from pre-drill expectations are pretty common (as both these affect seismic velocities etc).
ee
In reply to marben100 (post #14)
Mark (or anyone else who was there!), OT I'm afraid but not sure where else to ask..did you see the CTP presentation - any thoughts?
Omni note from yesterday (which does not include allowance for various of the points mentioned in the presentation!)..... http://www.aminex-plc.com/files/091029_Aminex_Omni_initiation.pdf
ee
[ps since this is a company board, can we keep discussion on AEX? There's nothing to stop somone opening a general thread to discuss others at OB]
Re #16, I have made some comments (FWTW) re CTP on the Meetings & Presentations thread
Oilbarrel's post-event comments:
http://www.oilbarrel.com/nc/news/display_news/article/conference-report-1-2/771.html
ee
In reply to marben100 (post #14)
I was trying to understand what sort of target AEX had in mind for the upcoming Shoats creek drilling and found this paragraph from Marben's earlier post (thanks Marben and un-named AEX source):
...You can see from slide 7 that Shoats Creek 2P declared reserves total 4.53mmboe . Slide 9, however, shows an unrisked potential for 18mmboe arrived at following the 3D seismic interpretation (2man years of Aminex effort has gone into that interpretation so far - work is ongoing).
Note also from slide 9, that whilst 55% of that potential is in the deeper Wilcox formation which will need to be farmed out to drill, that means 45% of the potential can be targeted by the shallower, cheaper wells....
On P9 of the presentation:
Aminex is drilling two shallow oil prospects to turn PUDs into PDPs...
PUD is proven undeveloped & PDP is proven, developed, producing.
How is it that these prospects are classed as 'proven' and are in the unrisked potential 18mmboe? - If they are proven, wouldn't they be reserves?
Any idea how much of this prospective 18mmboe will be targeted by these two wells?
lsn
In reply to lowersharpnose (post #20)
55% of this 18mmboe is in the Wilcox, with 45% in the shallower horizons (per p9). The two wells are shallow, so are targetting part of the 45%. See post 15 for other comments.
I should point out that the 4.53 mmboe figure is clearly indicated on slide 7 as an "end 2008" number. The analysis of the 3D data post-dates that (and indeed the 18mmboe number was a very recent one).
The central issue at Shoats Creek is the tiny proportion of 1P in relation to the 2P estimates. Ignoring the precise definition of PUDs and PDPs for a moment (partly because I dare say there are subtle distinctions that I don't know about as yet), the objective of the drilling is to raise the proportion of 1P reserves relative to 2P and also to raise the proportion of oil in the production mix (as indicated in slide 9).
rgds
ee