Placing and extension of the warrants

In reply to Isaac (post #38)

Isaac,

your comments to Darron

It is not your money. Do you even care if you lose? It does'nt impact your lifestyle.

This has been a total disaster for many who followed into the stock on the back of your advise and emptyend. I have no intention of throwing anymore of my money down a rat hole, I will not be subscribing to the placing.

are not just over the top, they're rude and offensive. And how do you know whether Darron's successes or otherwise affect his lifestyle anyway? You haven't seen his contract of employment..

Take your own view, by all means, but don't insuit others personally. Disagree with them, if you wish - no-one will mind that.

If you don't want to take up your shares under the Open offer, that's fine. More, perhaps, for those who, like me, feel that there's enough potential in AEX to make it worth trying to get more.

it may, just possibly, have escaped your attention that UNLESS AEX got a placing away, they wouldn't have been able to handle their share of Ruvuma, making them prey to any scavenger that might come along. Ruvuma may, or may not, be a success - we'll have to wait and see on that.

I don't expect to make a profit on every share I buy, however much I would like to do so, which is why I try to buy some that seems pretty solid, and others, like AEX, which are riskier, but have, in my view, potential. And if something goes bad, well, that's my decision, not ee's or Darron's.

So give it a rest, will you?

Man Siarad

Isaac,

Ranting about management isn't going to change a thing. if you feel that strongly you'll have to sell your shares at the first decent opportunity.

This is what i intend to do because for once your doubts about the management have more than a grain of truth in them. I can't escape the conclusion that i have drawn that the best way to play this one is to buy in on success at Ruvuma.

I don't think that saying people here are in denial helps that much but what I would say to some of the more vocal BH supporters here is to ask them what good decisions /deals has Mr Hall made over the last couple of years.

repobear

Thinking about this on the way in, I told myself I woudlnt post more on the subject but last night's posts could have been better I think.

The facts of the matter are that many companies did have plans in place to raise money for explo programmes/development work and so on (not just AEX here) but what Roger seems unable to get into his skull is that last year all those plans were thrown into complete chaos by the combination of the seizure of the capital markets compounded by the resultant collpase in the oil price.

Hell, to the list of those companies I made last night (I note DPL has been suspended due to the ongoing talks about financing meaning they cant publish reports) you can add Tullow.

Remember how, at the start of the year, there was a lot of talk concerning whether or not the banks woudl renew the reserve based lending facility. Yes, thats Tullow, with its tens of thousands of barrels production and two world class discoveries in Uganda and Ghana. Seems daft now but thats the reality. If there was concern about Tullow's financing, what hope did any of the massed ranks of small (and mid) cap explo companies have? Everyone was worried and the best laid plans vanished (like all hope when reading one of Isaac's posts).

Unfortunately, some people dont seem to realise that last year was just a little bit difficult.

I have been asked to moderate Isaac's recent posts. I agree with ManSiarad that "they're rude and offensive". However, i think the thumb ratings give a good view of the community's view and Darron doesn't mind if they stay, so I am leaving them but issuing Isaac with 2 warnings:

• you have insulted Darron by saying he doesn't care as it isn't his money.  You may say what you want about companies and their management (subject to my second point below), but insulting other users of these boards is not appropriate. This is a final warning and any similar offence on this or any other thread which I have started will result in your post being deleted.

• you seem to have moved into rant mode on the subject of Aminex's management. Nothing wrong with a good (or in this case bad, IMO) rant from time to time on discussion boards.  But threads can get clogged up if things like this keep being repeated. You seem to be getting close to the borderline here, so this is a first warning for this thread to think twice before repeating stuff unless there is  additional content added.

If anyone wants to discuss this post (or any similar moderation issues), please post on this thread: http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/forum/view/29525/moderation-policy

db

First - thanks to DB and Darron for NOT moderating Isaac's posts.  The language may be unacceptable but the points must be worth airing.

Second - my quick pennyworth on Isaac's stance:  if you are holding your AEX shares with a view to selling on the rise before the Ruvuma results (as you posted earlier) then why not buy more in the 'open offer' at 6p?  After all the bid today is 6.75p.

Third - surely it is the predictability of the future that really matters (not the unpredicted past).  My own very personal take is that the 'other' arrows in AEX's quiver provide some support against possible bad news at Ruvuma - and so the risk:reward balance remains OK for the moment.  I note Dear Leader's post last night about Kenyan moves ot take Songo Songo gas: 

post 20 on   http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/forum/view/28710/tanzania  .  That helps me hope...

AA

Hi all,

BillyBoy makes a post on TMF which echoes my thoughts on this

I have been a patient holder of AEX for over six years and during this time have contributed to the placings and warrant issues. We currently have around 350K of stock split between my daughters trust funds and ISA's which is probably around 70% under water. In order to avoid dillution I need to find another 10/11K to support this company. So the question is why should I support a company which has delivered so little in the way of shareholder value...despite having significant prospects the current management have lifted large salaries whilst kicking back nothing to shareholders. There is little point in quoting difficult times in my opinion as there has been ample opportunity to raise capital at higher levels by a board with a long term strategy. This board do not seem to have one, and the stock they are selling now at 6p will be filling the pockets of institutional investors for a long time to come while small investors wait for a return of our capital.

To which i will add my earlier question. Just what decisions/deals has BH made over the last couple of years that have added value to the company? Noone answered last time and i am not expecting a rush this time.

But it is a bloody good question and I have no trouble answereing it for the likes of Soco and Encore, but I am struggling here?

The other question which is on my mind is ' How long before Aminex come round with the begging bowl again?'

My confidence with BH is pretty much shot to bits as some of you might have guessed. 'Always look on the bright side of life' is a sweet and catchy little tune but a bloody dangerous one for investors.

repobear

In reply to Isaac (post #53)

You say:

I never accused Darron of anything. I asked him a question.

In your post 38, you said, apropos of Darron,

It is not your money. Do you even care if you lose? It does'nt impact your lifestyle.

Well, yes, there's a question mark in there, but a pretty blunt accusation too - at least in terms of English as I read, write and speak it.

It seems pretty plain to me.

You do, of course, have the facility of editing your original post, if you wish to withdraw that accusation.

Man Siarad

I believe that certain well-respected posters should exercise a greater duty of care... not from a legal but a moral point-of-view.  In my opinion, they should recognise that their views will be well regarded by many investors less able to see the risks who may then invest inappropriately.   Again, in my opinion, they should post as if they were advising a much-loved uncle who may have more money than sense.  In that way, I'd think we'd see some of the very 'comforting' and 'reassuring' posts take on a very different style.  I think they would gain some much needed objectivity about the risk - not for them - but for many of the audience they are socialising with.

Clearly, there are a number a of very pleasant, well-meaning and naive middle-income investors who have invested heavily in Aex only to find they're 75% down on substantial amounts.  As Isaac implies, a goodly proportion of those investments (via the cogs & wheels of the stock market) has finished up in the monthly pay packets of Aex's directors.

Bulletin Boards are the wild west and many a well-meaning PI is going to get chewed up here.  Blatant rampers are easily seen.  Modest rampers are spotted too after a while.  But the well-respected posters who don't intend to ramp, but put over a very plausible position don't always realise how their views are blindly followed by PIs 'grasping for a hand of friendly advice'.  

Perhaps they should really emphasise the risk or perhaps even consider stop posting... then at least they can have a clear conscience.  

Finally, simply stating 'DYOR' may ease the moral position by a small amount, but why post if one then says 'DYOR' ?

controversially, ingledew

In reply to ingledew (post #55)

but why post if one then says 'DYOR' ?

It´s called having an opinion.

You appear to want the full service that a paid for brokerage will supply. If so, go and pay for one.

If you want the opinion of others on here, for free, then carry on reading. The choice is yours.

I'm a long(ish) holder of Aminex and have far more of these than I ought to.

I've missed the opportunity to sell twice now at substantial gain and am now well underwater.  In fact it's my largest loss on any share.

I think I have to hold my hands up as someone who fundamentally believes in the true value of this company but also having my judgement clouded by both the amazing gains I made on small and medium cap oillies 2003 - 2008 and the good drilling results we've had which has kept me expecting a proper re-rating, which has never come.

Although I knew the dilution was an almost certainty, actually seeing it in black and white is sobering.

Of course times are difficult and I have no-one to blame but myself but I'm very hesitant to commit further funds here (although I probably will).  It's been a salutary reminder that small cap shares are risky.  Small oil exploration companies are riskier still.

I can't help feeling that opportunities have been lost by the Aminex management with a broad portfolio of good assets but a very poor approach to monetizing them.

In fact I can't help feeling that AEX should consider relinquishing its Ruvuma licences rather than throwing the dice, when we could use this money to produce or map proven reserves.  Of course if ruvuma comes up trumps we'll all be smiling - but it probably won't and things will be looking very bleak in the Autumn.

Aminex has moved from being medium/high risk to extreme risk IMO.  And it's not just down to poor market conditions..management have not performed well enough.

Bugs

What people think is if they average down then the share price does'nt have to rise back to the old highs for them to recoup their money instead the share price only needs to rise a little bit. 

well, that is correct, isn't it?

I prefer to use a fresh pair of eyes and choose the best possible Investment for my money. In the current environment and based on what I expect to unfold in the markets much later on I do not want any more exposure to a illiquid small cap with a binary outcome.

if you are saying that you currently have as much exposure to Aminex as you want , then fine - in that case you shouldn't buy any more even if they look cheap. But that is a rather different position from castigating the management as useless - in that case you shouldn't be holding any at all.

I'd rather sell at a slightly higher price at a loss

so you think the shares are cheap now and will rise letting you sell them for a slightly higher price before Ruvuma is drilled? In that case I assume you think that people with no or only small exposure to Aminex should be buying now, right?  If wrong, then why are you still a holder?

Sell up before drilling results. Once Ruvuma results are out, if it is any good there will be plenty of time to buy back in. Why take big risks when you simply don't have to?

Because if you look at their other assets - US and Kiliwani - the company looks undervalued without any value for Ruvuma

I am big fan of the little guy

and I am a big fan of the little guy making sensible decisions. Forget what price you paid for the stock - that doesn't matter. Look at the price it is now and decided if you think it's cheap.  If it is, then hold your current shares and buy some more if you are happy with the risk/reward.  If you don't think it's cheap, then sell out.

The people that are benefiting are the WShak's of the this world who are buying in at a very good price

and you too can buy at that price - thanks to Brian providing an option that few AIM companies do

and will most likely make money because the shares will rally prior to drilling results.

I think you are talking yourself into buying :)

The difference between Soco & Aminex is Soco atleast have loads of decent prospects to drill

s what is your considered opinion on Aminex's non Ruvuma assets?  Sunny Ernst seems to be going well and Shoats Creek looks promising, doesn't it?  i assume you have looked at the recent AGM presentation?

we may all never get our money back.

true! but what do you expect when you buy a small E&P company? a guarantee?

I'm not a gambler. I invest on the basis of making money.

I think you mean you invest on the basis of hoping to make money...

db

In reply to bugsmunny (post #57)

Aminex has moved from being medium/high risk to extreme risk IMO.

I guess that view depends on couple of things (at least):

1. Whether you think Aminex will blow all the cash on Mikindani and then not be able to develop anything else.
2. What you define as "risk". If you equate "risk" with volatility, then yes, one has to say that Aminex and companies like it are very risky. Personally, I do not. What the market may price the company at day-to-day is one thing. What value may be realised in the fullness of time is quite another and I am still prepared to wait because I believe, even setting Ruvuma aside, that Aminex's market cap is well below the value of its assets.

Coming back to point 1., I am not as critical of Brian as many here. Over the 3 years that I have been an investor, I can't see that he has done too much wrong. Some things have not worked out as hoped/expected - KN-1 has proved more difficult to commercialise, for example; others have worked out well. 40mmcf/d of gas is not be be sneezed at and I am convinced that this is likely to prove a crown jewel in the fullness of time. Drlling results in the US have been good - it is unfortunate that there has been a lot of volatilty in oil & US gas prices. I am also sure that the majority of critics have no clue what is actually involved in running Aminex.

Anyhoo, I am satisfied that Brian has his head screwed on and has no intention of blowing all the cash on Mikindani (unless absolutely unavoidable); rather it puts Aminex in a considerably better negotiating position for farming down.

If Mikindani fails - and it is sensible to assume that it will - then we're still left with some very decent assets and, hopefully, sufficient cash and negotiating muscle to realise their value. Of course, if Mikindani finds oodles of oil, then I suppose Brian will be everyone's hero?

Like Mansiarad, I expect that I shall be applying for 2-3x my allocation of shares in the open offer. The value of my investment in Aminex relative to the rest of my porty will still be within my comfort zone.

I would also like to thank Darron and ee for all their work on this over the years and for the information they have posted which it is up to each of us to evaluate .    Anyone that buys shares purely or largely on the say-so of a BB poster is a gambler, not an investor and I do not have much sympathy. Investment takes hard work. When some say "they should take more care", I am sure that they have taken every care before posting, just as I do. They are merely human, however and PEOPLE MAKE MISTAKES. I've certainly made plenty - but what I've learned and what I've gained from the successes has very comfortably outweighed the losses.

Regards,

Mark

Have to say to all the critics of Brian Hall, you haven't got the faintest idea of how adept at ducking and diving the CEO of an E&P such as AEX needs to be in progressing the company through thick and thin. History is littered with failed oilcos. Hall has been around a long time, actively seeking opportunities on a shoestring. Eight or so years ago he successfully fought off a hostile bid for AEX and subsequently delivered a special dividend to shareholders through the sale of their Russian assets. He's a survivor and importantly, unlike others, he doesn't bull####.

Interesting to note Isaac was singing the praises on TMF a short while back about his investment in AEX at around 7p/sh and now he's slagging off management. Wish my bad luck was limited to that sort of entry level. Disappointed investors need to get real. Troubled times bring tricky decisions. Re Mikindani, AEX don't have an option to pull out of drilling the well. When you sign a PSC you are committed to adhere to the terms or find yourself being sued for the cost of such well and all the ramifications that entails in loss of confidence in other areas of the company's interests.

As to the comments about respected posters being criticised for sucking in naive investors, then I'm afraid that's their lookout. For Isaac to make such complaint is obviously ridiculous for someone who bangs on and on about his investment prowess!!

Note to Isaac, if you respond to anything I've said here, please note I won't be reading it. I've long since learnt there are very much more productive things to do!

ok, final warning for this thread Isaac. The level of repetition and rant is now significantly out-weighing the level of new content. You have said what you want and re-phrased it several times. Any future posts are very likely to  be removed unless there is significant new content, including some facts not just allegations about Brian.

db

FWIW at face value I also beleive Aminex have got it wrong. In my view they should have quit Ruvuma, sold out for the US and concentrated on 'outing value' in the Tanz acreage. i.e. a 4 to 6 well drilling campaign.

However it's never that simple. Could the partners afford to proceed etc even if Aminex had the cash?

Ruvuma is a complete wildcat looking for oil when none has been found anywhere near. In my view the COS must be < 10%

I'd like them to farmdown to something like 10% ownership IF and I mean IF they can get a decent price. I think the problem is that no one wants this kind of acreage at the moment so I still think they will do well to get a farm-in on anything like decent terms.

So my view remain's without a Ruuma farm-in they are up Shoats Creek without a paddle and 2p could be on the cards on Ruvuma failure.

I am not taking part in the placing/rights

JonnyT

Another thread just started on AEX : "What are they going to do with the money" http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/forum/view/30815/what-are-they-going-to-do-with-the-money-what-happens-next with tournesol as moderator.