Soco End game Timings and Price Targets

In reply to Isaac, post #20

Ah, it's a full moon I see..

In reply to Isaac, post #20

A few weeks ago one of the co-founders of Microsoft, Paul Allen yacht  (Octopus) came to the docks for the Olympics, it cost over $200mn sitting in the water. I thought to myself what's the point in having such luxury?

I'd agree. However, if he were to die tomorrow he would probably a tad happier for the fact that he had pissed you off first..... ;-)

Meanwhile, I'm just off to watch the closing hype at the GOP convention......

"We can do better" is apparently the slogan....

In reply to davjo, post #17

The 2008 RAP was presumably commissioned by Hoang Long. It will be interesting to learn therefore if this is the case this time around, or whether SOCO is doing so off its own bat.

Own bat I think. The RAR would have been an input into the 2008 numbers but probably only a starting point. The independent assessment is overdue IMO and will be capable of application as a partner-persuader as well as buttressing valuations. Either way it is the right time to review.

The problem with mankind is GREED - that will never go away. No matter how much you have you always want more, problem is you forget what it feels like to have little so by having more and more you never really appreciate it.

Yes,  easy to see greed in others isn't it ?  the soco directors want to get what they see as full value for the company,  thats greedy.  Where as some here just want a quick sale so they can invest in other stocks that they see as cheap.  Is there a little bit of greed in that too ?

perhaps greed,  like beauty is just a matter of oppinion?

either way,  I think lifestyle advice for the management is pointless here,  so lets assume that they know what they want to do,  and we have the choice of going along for the ride or selling at any point.  They have clearly told us that when someone matches there valuation they will sell.  We know this is somewhere in the region of $20 per barrel,  it's just a question of reserves and recovery values being agreed so that we can agree on the multiple.  No amount of complaining that the oil price is going up,  or stable or falling is going to make any difference.  

regarding death,  you'll remember that Patrick Maugein died about 6 years ago,  I would imagine that this made people think about what they wanted from life.  I don't suppose though that being a soco director is much like the sitting in front of a monitor for 8 hours a day that some might portray,  as ES has said in the past,  "As long as you're having fun ... "

http://www.socointernational.com/index.php?cID=98&cType=news

K

It may not be greed, all I have seen here is people advising they mid to late 60's and surely they would want to retire. I think an equally viable option is that people who get to the top in industry don't like sitting around doing very little and get enjoyment from working. Many older people also enjoy having something to do rather sitting at home or holidaying. :o)

MrX001, you are so right. I am not motivated in any way by greed, 85% of the money I manage is for family and friends, I have fun making them money and do not want any payment for doing it. I get enormous enjoyment from working, and hope to end work when they carry me out feet first.

Holidays bore me, there is nothing more boring unless there is skiing, dancing rock and roll or scuba available. If there is not, I take my laptop.

Next week, for example, I will be connected to the stock market, starkers, enjoying the naturist camp site at CHM Oltra, Cap d'Agde, with its thousands of naked women. Ooh La La!

Oops! there I go again, upsetting Sir Lurkalot, who will no doubt be complaining again about "too much information!!"

In reply to MadDutch, post #26

Good luck with Cap d'Agde just got back (fairly close) from there - 2 weeks holiday - last few days the temp. dropped significantly and high winds as well. I am sure you will have fun anyway.

Reo

I thik the management need to take their fingers out of their a... - Bite the bullet and accept that the company is not worth as much as they would hope for and do a deal.

I don't think they are doing anyone any favours by waiting, least of all themselves!

I won't really understand why anyone with such wealth can't seem to find anything better to do with their time then go into an office daily staring at a computer screen. It beats me.

In reply to Isaac, post #28

I thik the management need to take their fingers out of their a...

I think you need to keep your gob shut more - but anything I say will probably make no difference to you....just as anything you say along the lines above will make no difference to anyone else - other than merely confirming peoples' opinions that you post without engaging your brain.

IMO they are ALREADY well along with the process of doing a deal - and I'm sure that they won't need your "advice" on price to do so....

Some people appear to think that buying and selling companies is just like nipping down to the car boot sale. It ain't.

IMO they are ALREADY well along with the process of doing a deal - and I'm sure that they won't need your "advice" on price to do so....

So you have kept telling us the past 5 years......I have quite a few grey hairs now from listening to this.

At what point does an individual who keeps saying the same thing and is proven wrong time and time again lose credibility?

It is a bit like Jim Rogers telling CNBC would you have someone on your show that has been consistently wrong over and over?

Al Stanton was an analyst you highly rated until his recenl sector perform with a lower target price rating. I do find it interesting how you derate those that don't agree with you. This is a discussion board, a discussion involves sharing views.

Not throwing your toys out of the pram because you disagree. Davjo can have a very sensible discussion whilst acknowledging opposing views and keeping a level head about valuations.

There has been no indication whatsoever from the company that a reserve upgrade is due & are not close enough to the wells or have the data to draw such conclusion, yet you have managed to put it into everyones head we will get one.  Where oh where have you got your information from?

Why can't there be a reserve downgrade after drilling the development wells only to find less Oil then expected?

The problem is I feel someone somewhere is giving you information that is not available to the the normal private investor and analysts as such you hold strong views and those that disagree with you, well you seem to treat them like idiots.

In reply to Isaac, post #30

At what point does an individual who keeps saying the same thing and is proven wrong time and time again lose credibility?

Dunno. You're the expert in that field - why don't you tell me?

It is a bit like Jim Rogers telling CNBC would you have someone on your show that has been consistently wrong over and over?

How can I be "consistently wrong" when I've always been talking about a specific scenario that hasn't yet occurred? The fact that it hasn't occurred yet doesn't mean that it can't/won't.

Al Stanton was an analyst you highly rated until his recenl sector perform with a lower target price rating.

Nonsense. I've never rated any analyst "highly". He was closer than most - and he still is.

I do find it interesting how you derate those that don't agree with you. This is a discussion board, a discussion involves sharing views.

Not throwing your toys out of the pram because you disagree. Davjo can have a very sensible discussion whilst acknowledging opposing views and keeping a level head about valuations.

Complete and utter unadulterated rubbish....apart from the comment about davjo (with whom I haven't had a single cross word for the last 13 years -despite often having slightly different perspectives). I've got no problem at all with people who disagree and who argue their case in a civil fashion (as davjo has unfailingly done). The problems I have are with people who misrepresent what I have actually said, set up completely false premises (and ascribe them to me) and are generally rude and/or abusive as a primary aim of their comments.

There has been no indication whatsoever from the company that a reserve upgrade is due

Rubbish. See the notes of those who attended the AGM.

The problem is I feel someone somewhere is giving you information that is not available to the the normal private investor and analysts as such you hold strong views and those that disagree with you, well you seem to treat them like idiots.

That problem is one that is entirely within your own head. If it were true, don't you think it would have been a tad more accurate? You've just been railing at me for having "got it so wrong". As for treating people "like idiots", that certainly is a fair comment in relation to my view of perhaps three or four individuals* - and that is because they have richly merited being treated like idiots - because they behave like idiots.

*present company included

ee

In reply to emptyend, post #31

apart from the comment about davjo (with whom I haven't had a single cross word for the last 13 years -despite often having slightly different perspectives).

Indeed! Just for the record, I don't go along with ee's £6-£8/sh sale value for the company but I most certainly don't rule it out. The scope is there but I always take a conservative view based on actual asset disposals made in the past, which as often as not, didn't quite live up to PI expectations. I do recognise however that Soco VN could be very different. It will need a very cool political hand played by Soco to extricate maximum value but I don't see any reason to alter my bet of a pint with him right now, which IIRC, is based on him winning on a SV sale over £5/sh and me winning if it's under....as things stand that is, before any reserves upgrade.

Clearly, I'll be very happy to lose and I won't argue on the details of our wager if a reserve upgrade delivers over £5/sh but I'll summon him to a Suffolk pub to pay his dues if it doesn't ;-)

In reply to davjo, post #32

which IIRC, is based on him winning on a SV sale over £5/sh and me winning if it's under....as things stand that is, before any reserves upgrade.

Oy! ;-)  I don't recall that condition...though it is effectively academic (as they will probably happen at much the same time IMO).

This is the point that I think is pretty misleading in all of the analysts' views on the company. There is very plainly going to be a reserves upgrade, so what is the value in pretending that there won't? All the work has been done, the wells have been drilled and put on production, and the increases in value are real and demonstrable. The only thing that is left to be done is to have an independent assessment of what all of that means to the 2P(&3P). Its a bit like* waiting for the umpire's finger to go up when there is a clear nick to second slip....you know it is going to go up and that he's out - but you daren't celebrate until that occurs.

*Actually it is a great deal more complicated - but the principle is the same......the events that matter have already happened - its just the final decision on the scoreboard that is awaited now.

Oy! ;-) I don't recall that condition...though it is effectively academic (as they will probably happen at much the same time IMO).
>> me neither, but perhaps this is the difference between the more conservative valuations and the more optimistic ? analysts and davjo, are working on what is declared now as reserves, and more optimistic valuations are based on what they're expecting/hoping for from the reserves review. Presumably you would both review your valuations if SOCO struck a billion barrel field in africa ? Well at the moment your valuations are probably pretty close , but ee is putting something in for an expected reserves upgrade, davjo is not counting our chicks until they hatch ! Both are well respected posters, as I recall davjo called the valuation of the Thailand assets pretty much spot on. I'm sure we all hope that ee will be right this time !

This is the point that I think is pretty misleading in all of the analysts' views on the company. There is very plainly going to be a reserves upgrade, so what is the value in pretending that there won't?

>> yes I agree, but it's a matter of guess work as to how big, so I can understand the analysts not counting their chicks, but what I cannot understand is them not mentioning it !! in the same way as they don't mention what the takeover value of the vietnamese assets might be worth.

K

In reply to kenobi, post #34

it's a matter of guess work as to how big, so I can understand the analysts not counting their chicks, but what I cannot understand is them not mentioning it !! in the same way as they don't mention what the takeover value of the vietnamese assets might be worth.

Quite so. There also appears to be zero effort being put in to think about the potential quantum - which is perhaps a reflection of the fact that analysts don't understand the oil business as well as they like people to suppose  ;-)  Of course, guessing hard numbers is a mug's game really, because nobody knows as they haven't seen the data - but I don't mind going out on a limb with my 40-100% (and I would think that even 40% should generate some attention from the City!).

Worth listening to Jim Rogers - Still bullish commodities and Oil, apparently Oil is going above $200/bbl over the next decade

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkjI5bTBS8A

>> apparently Oil is going above $200/bbl over the next decade

lets hope other oil companies who might be interested in tgt and cnv agree with him,

I would think it would be wise to wait until the reserves review, and then re assess potential takeout prices.
of course that approach might mean missing out on a sizable chunk of the potential upside. The long termers here will probably already have bought all the shares they are planning to, so it's a bit academic to them. The advantage of a move up will be that long termers might start to realise profits on short term trading positions.

cheers K

As we edge closer to November, the suggested date of a reserves update, and with the price drifting just a little to below 330, I'm starting to wonder if a little bet on the side might prove profitable, not really wanting to increase my core position (I've said that before and then never sold !), but at what price is a little flutter worthwhile ? is it going to drift down towards 300p, at which point the company may start buying ? by buying are we keeping the price above this level, when it might be better to let it fall and let the company buy ? (ok, lets be honest even if I bought/ sold my whole position it wouldn't move the market so I doubt very much a few k will make any difference, but perhaps if other people on the board are thinking the same it would),

Will a modest revision in reserves prompt analysts to revise figures up significantly, or will it all be covered with conditional statements like, assuming they could extract it all in time, based on upgrading production facilities, doubts remain, etc etc ?

I wonder if a significant upgrade will come, if it does, will the share price react similarly ? Will it be the catalyst for the long awaited deal ??

cheers K

PS, just had an email from one of Gdaffi's aides who has $20M he wants to send me, I was thinking I would hold it in soco shares until I pay him his share.

I'll buy more at 300p or below. The last interims were really very safe and IMO Soco is not overvalued on any metric. In these uncomfortable times (I've sold a lot of positions in the last few weeks with and eye on future eurozone crisis/China/US election/price of oil worries), it's nice to have a position that I'm very comfortable with in Soco and I'd be happy to have more of.

Last bought at 275p, and never ended up selling them. I'm not good at this trading around the edges business.

In reply to kenobi, post #38

As we edge closer to November, the suggested date of a reserves update

You'd be safer pencilling in December, I think, based on my latest enquiry. However, as you know, I would never rule out the possibility that the impact of the reserves review may be felt a bit sooner!

I'd expect there to be a very solid upgrade to 2P and a substantial 3P number (unless the connectivity impacts can be proven/disproven already) .

Will it be the catalyst for the long awaited deal ??

Maybe. Though my working theory for years has been that a deal could come before or at the same time as the upgrade.