Sports Betting and Chat

Totally freak performance - Rosol can be layed at 32 - definitely worth taking

I'd say that almost nails it for Djokovic

OTOH, I do think Nadal is vulnerable........

Well done ee, Murray odds dropped from 16.5 to 7.6 after Nadal's loss.

....mmmm....well Nadal was never the one that Murray really had to worry most about - but its handy to have him out of the way.

The clues were in post 9 above:

Nadal (in contrast) could easily have dropped the first set (and possibly more) if his opponent hadn't managed to beat himself in his own mind. Nadal was 4-0 down to Belluci who, frankly, would have cruised to the first set if only he had been able to volley properly. Belluci played some absolutely fabulous shots - and outpowered Nadal on many occasions (amazingly). Nadal eventually did what he had to do - but Murray and others will sure have noted the success of Belluci's tactics of using power and aggression to hurry and stretch Nadal.

Rosol followed the same tactics that worked for Belluci - but crucially was able to sustain his power game. He also fabulously disrupted Nadal's normal measured approach to matches and (though I saw only the final set due to being out earlier) I think that ranks as one of the all-time great matchplay performances on a tennis court.

Nadal is going to find everyone and his dog bringing the power game down on him from hereon.......its gonna be awfully uncomfortable unless he finds a way of coping with it, because there are dozens of players who have the technique to try it - and they will now all have the belief, thanks to Rosol.

Murray v Bagdatis is going to be a great match to watch!  This is shaping up to be the best Wimbledon ever.....

In reply to emptyend, post #17

Before yesterday's matches, I cut my position on Murray and recovered three-quarters of my original stake......and put just under a quarter of it back on Del Potro at 48/1 (now 34s) . So I'm now positioned to win a similar amount if either Del Potro or Murray wins.

I'm likely to manage the positions down again ahead of the quarters or semis but will stay long of both for the next round and hope Murray beats Cilic and Del Potro beats Ferrer. Tsonga, Federer and Djokovic look nailed on to make the semis.

In reply to emptyend, post #18

mmmm..well Del Potro was surprisingly disappointing (or perhaps it was Ferrer being relentlessly brilliant?

I haven't changed my Murray position again, and will now stay long with 70% of my original potential winnings still on him. I have, however, had a small saver on Federer....who is far too long at 5s IMO.

So only a Djokovic or Tsonga win would see me (very modestly) out of pocket.

Shocking fact of the day: Did you know that Djokovic and Federer have NEVER met on grass? Amazing!

Both seem at the top of their game - I'm hoping for an attritional five setter to give Murray a chance in the Final (assuming that Murray can extend his 5-0 record against Tsonga...which won't be especially easy)

Shocking fact of the day: Did you know that Djokovic and Federer have NEVER met on grass? Amazing!

I know, that shocked me as well.

I can't see Murray beating any of the three left particularly Songa who at 13/1 looks a good shot right now.

I still can't really see past Djokovic - he's just too good for my money.

In reply to emptyend, post #19

If I had any bets at this stage I would lay enough of so regardless of the ourcome I would make similar amounts. Truth is any of the 4 in the Semi's can win it so it makes less sense to back an outright winner at this stage.

Clearly the best bets on table from day one were Murray and Tsonga.

In reply to nigelpm, post #20

I can't see Murray beating any of the three left particularly Songa who at 13/1 looks a good shot right now.
I still can't really see past Djokovic - he's just too good for my money

......mmmm.  I believe he is 5-0 against Tsonga......so the form book suggests he should get to the final.(thoughTsonga is playing well - as usual!). The point about Federer and Djokovic never having met on grass (and with Federer's Wimbledon record) means that you can't count Federer out just yet......and he is certainly beatable by Murray.

I also recall just how close Murray came against Djokovic in the final in Australia (losing 7-5 in the 5th, IIRC). At Wimbledon, with the crowd behind him........?  He'd need to be at the absolute top of his game, of course - but he was at that level for most of the match yesterday against Ferrer, and also against Davydenko in the first round.

Re Isaac's comment, if one is going to bet on sports at all, I can't see the point at all of closing everything out rather than letting it run to the wire. Its not like a tenner here or there is a life-changer!

In reply to emptyend, post #19

I haven't changed my Murray position again, and will now stay long with 70% of my original potential winnings still on him. I have, however, had a small saver on Federer....who is far too long at 5s IMO.....

The point about Federer and Djokovic never having met on grass (and with Federer's Wimbledon record) means that you can't count Federer out just yet......and he is certainly beatable by Murray.

So far so good....well played The Fed!!

If Murray can stay on his roll of form, he has every chance of beating both Tsonga and Federer........but unless Tsonga beats both Murray and Federer I'll be coming out ahead on the betting (for once).

ee

Amazing game for Murray.....Surely it is now finally time for a Brit to win Wimbledon? Seriously?

In reply to Isaac, post #24

Amazing game for Murray.....Surely it is now finally time for a Brit to win Wimbledon? Seriously?

...mmmm...maybe.

I don't think we'll see pre-Wimbledon odds of 16.5 again, whether he wins or loses on Sunday :-)

Tactics and confidence will be key.....the record suggests it could be very close - if Murray can avoid beating himself before he goes on court. But he's there - and has a chance.....though he'll need to return to the form he showed against Ferrer.

ee

In reply to emptyend, post #25

Interestingly odds hit 18 on the day you placed your bet.

Tsonga was around 30 on the day Nadal got beaten and then the odds shortened considerably.

In reply to Isaac, post #26

Interestingly odds hit 18 on the day you placed your bet.

Yup - thats true.......possibly even 19 a few hours after.

Still - very happy with 16.5, especially as I'm guaranteed to be a few quid up and have the prospect of  £450 or so if Murray comes through. That would be my biggest sporting win since my fiver each way on Ipswich for the Premiership 10 years ago (which made £2200).

I'm already reinvesting in the Olympics......  ;-)

Good call ee.

Djokovic really had an off day today - I can't ever remember him making that many unforced errors but Federer was supreme - perhaps better than he was in the mid naughties?

Anyway, Murray was also good I must admit and better than I expected, I also thought he had the fight and determination needed to win.

Decided to lay off Federer at 1.55 which looks a bit short although I fully expect Federer to out serve Murray and win.

In reply to nigelpm, post #28

Decided to lay off Federer at 1.55 which looks a bit short although I fully expect Federer to out serve Murray and win.

...mmmm...I've followed your lead on that at 1.57 (locking in a small profit for the Championships as a whole), but with more hopes for Murray.

The result all depends on how canny Murray is tactically - that and, of course, bringing his "A game". If he plays well and varies it so that Federer can't dictate (which he did brilliantly against Djokovich) then he has as good a chance as he is going to get until Nadal's knees give out and Federer retires....

We'll see. I'll be watching from afar.

In reply to emptyend, post #29

Well.....I got a good run for my money - and he gave it his best shot.

I noticed that the odds in play came down as low as about 1.8 on Murray early in the second set  and (had I not been somewhere where I wasn't permitted to access my Betfair account) I'd have considered laying off a chunk more and taking some profit. C'est la vie.

On the same principle as I had a bet on Murray and Federer (odds too wide) I've put the modest Wimbledon profits on the Olympics 100m.....and gone for Asapha Powell at just under 50/1 on average. Far too wide when one considers that he was only 0.02 secs behind Bolt in the Jamacan trials and only 0.13 seconds behind Yohan Blake....and has beaten both their times in the past.....

....don't think I'll be changing the bet in play though.... ;-)

On the same principle as I had a bet on Murray and Federer (odds too wide) I've put the modest Wimbledon profits on the Olympics 100m.....and gone for Asapha Powell at just under 50/1 on average. Far too wide when one considers that he was only 0.02 secs behind Bolt in the Jamacan trials and only 0.13 seconds behind Yohan Blake....and has beaten both their times in the past.....

Agreed. Betfair currently offer 50/1 - I've taken up their offer.

Usain Bolt recovered from a poor start to win the 100 metres in 9.79 seconds Thursday, finishing 0.06 ahead of Asafa Powell at a Diamond League meet in Oslo, Norway.

Bolt, a three-time Olympic champion, overtook Powell in the closing stages to remain undefeated in 2012. He hasn't lost since failing to defend his gold at the 2011 world championships in South Korea after being disqualified in the final for a false start.

"When I came out from the blocks, I reacted good. But the execution, because I wasn't as comfortable as I wanted to be, wasn't that good during the first 30 metres," Bolt said. "Asafa got into his running form way quicker than me and got the top speed, while I had to work a little harder to get into my stride. But the good thing is I still got it -- I ran past him, so I'm happy.

"I have run world records where my coach has said the race wasn't perfect."

Bolt improved his head-to-head record over Powell to 11-1. It was his third fastest time of the season, behind the 9.76 he ran to win in Rome last week and his 9.82 in Jamaica earlier this year.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/trackandfield/story/2012/06/07/sp-diamond-league-oslo-usain-bolt.html

 

 

Powell, 29, added: "This is a big year for me. I'm not getting any younger but there's a lot more to come from me. I've learned a lot from past major championships. I don't take anything for granted and I'm working as hard as ever. I know that I'm capable of running 9.8, 9.7, 9.6, so all that I'm focusing on is myself.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/athletics/9372110/London-2012-Olympics-Tyson-Gay-and-Asafa-Powell-to-race-in-100m-at-Aviva-London-Grand-Prix.html

If Usain Bolt get's a false start then the race opens up and the ods should shorten considerably. I've only put on £10, but I think the bet is sound as I think there is a reasonable chance I could make £490.

Now that Betfair have a very much wider range of Olympics sports odds up on their website, there are some really good opportunities to take advantage of some of the prices on sports that you know something about.

I've just taken out everything on offer (which was negligible, unfortunately) for one of the mens badminton players, whose odds were about three times as generous as they should have been for someone who could easily make the quarterfinals - and I'll be laying one of the favourites, who is about half the price he should be. (No names yet - I'll probably do more).

I've also had a better-sized punt on a man "wearing local colours" winning The Open at Lytham this week. [;-)].........40/1 is just too wide for someone who finished top 5 last year at Sandwich and played some really consistent links golf!

ee

I've backed Tsonga at 42/1 for £31 bet = approx £1200 win, however I hope to lay him as the odds shorten.

This is a man that reached the Semi-Finals only last week at Wimbledon....The odds are far too wide. I don't fancy backing or laying the other favourites as the odds are too short and given my experience with the odds not shortening as they progressed it does'nt make much sense to back them.

I do expect odds of 42/1 Tsonga will shorten though as he progresses.

In reply to emptyend, post #32

I've also had a better-sized punt on a man "wearing local colours" winning The Open at Lytham this week. [;-)].........40/1 is just too wide for someone who finished top 5 last year at Sandwich and played some really consistent links golf!

Surprised no-one has picked up on the omen here. Where's Carmensfella when he's needed?  ;-)

In reply to emptyend, post #32

Peter Hoeg Gade looks interesting at 34/1 on the Badminton

Matchup to Watch

Can Europe break the Asian stranglehold on medals? The two most realistic hopes for medalists from outside Asia are both from the Euro-badminton hotbed of Denmark: men's singles shuttler Peter Hoeg Gade (the world No. 5) and the men's doubles team of Mathias Boe and Carsten Mogensen (the world No. 3). Gade's chances improve significantly if Chong Wei isn't fit to contend.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/olympics/2012/writers/luke_winn/07/10/london-olympic-badminton-preview/index.html#ixzz20jebLNDK