Nick Raynor is an investment adviser at retail stockbroker, The Share Centre, having been there since 2002. Nick has over 11 years’ experience in personal finance. Nick is regularly asked to offer his insight on a wide range of financial matters to the UK media for papers including The Times and The Daily Telegraph. He provides weekly share comment to several regional newspapers, as well as finance-based websites such as MoneyExtra.com.
He gives his thoughts on what to expect from companies announcing results w/c 15 Nov 2010.
Lonmin (LON:LMI) (final results)
Lonmin has staged a recovery over the last couple of months, but the share price could come under further pressure upon release of these results. Recent wage talks with staff have collapsed, so we expect further strikes at the company’s mines and this will impact production. Mining companies have had a good time recently, but Lonmin has had to deal with the pressure of strikes, poor power supply and brokers down grading in their droves.
We currently list Lonmin as a SELL
Burberry Group (LON:BRBY) (interims management statement)
Due to external factors such as the rising price of cotton and the planned VAT rises in the new year; coupled with weaker trading updates from other clothing retailers, these interim figures are going to have to be good for the share price to maintain its current levels. Talk of a bid has helped to keep the share price higher, but we think it is unlikely to occur, hence our sell recommendation. We currently list Burberry as a SELL
Itv (LON:ITV) (interim management statement)
ITV’s share price has seen a recovery over the last six months, as a change in management and cost cutting has helped improve figures all round. The company will be pleased to know Simon Cowell has committed himself to three more years at the station, as the X factor always guarantees good viewing and revenue figures.
We currently list ITV as a BUY
Experian Group Ltd (LON:EXPN) (interim management statement)
These results are expected to be robust and inline with Experian’s competitors. Around the globe companies have all shown signs of improvement, especially in North America. Experian does offer investors a truly global experience, and its business in South America is one of the areas which hold the most potential for improvement. Investors should also note the company is using spare cash to under go a share buy-back scheme, which is helping the share price. Further news on this may be issued in these results.
We currently list Experian as a BUY
Mothercare (LON:MTC) (interim management statement)
Mothercare’s overseas operations now extend to India and China. In this update we hope to see signs of success, and that these are contributing to the company’s bottom line. We also expect the UK business to provide some positive figures. The baby market is booming, and we believe that Mothercare is making the best of it.
We currently list Mothercare as a BUY
National Grid (LON:NG.) (interim management statement)
National Grid are undertaking a restructuring programme in the US which once completed could see improved tariff’s and also assets sales - all which would help to boost profits. In the past National Grid’s level of debt has caused concern, but the company do not struggle to raise new funds in the bond market when new issues are released. This update should give an idea how the re-structuring is going and how well the company is currently doing.
We currently list National Grid as a HOLD
Friday – n/a
Economic Diary 15 – 19 November
16 November Consumer Price Indices – October 2010 and 17 November Average Weekly Earnings – September 2010 – ONS - Last month, inflation as measured by the consumer prices index stood at 3.1% for the third month in succession, once again staying stubbornly above Bank of England forecasts. But the rarely discussed CPIY index, which measures inflation after removing the effect of indirect taxation, may prove to make more interesting viewing. Last month this rose from 1.4% to 1.5%, but nevertheless suggested underlying inflationary pressures, that’s after removing the effect of VAT, remain modest. Will the data for October continue to support this implication? On 17 November the ONS will release data on average earnings. In the three months to August, average earnings including bonuses rose by 1.7%, suggesting little inflationary pressure from the labour market. On the other hand, in the previous three-month period, average earnings rose by just 1.3 per cent. So while inflationary pressure is modest, it has increased significantly. Will this trend continue?
17 November Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 3 & 4 November – Bank of England - Last month’s minutes from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee Meeting revealed that the October meeting saw a three-way split, with one member, Andrew Sentance, voting for a hike in interest rates; another member, Adam Posen, voting for more QE; and the rest of the committee voting for no change. However, the minutes also suggested that several other members were coming around to the view that more QE will be required soon. Since then, data on GDP has been much better than expected, and many economists have argued that as a result the chances of more QE have reduced. Will the latest minutes support this contention?
Other economic announcements include:
- Economic and Labour Market Review – November 2010 – ONS
- EU Inflation (HICP) – Eurostat
- US Consumer Price Index – BLS
- US Real Earnings – BLS
- Retail Sales – October 2010 – ONS
- Public Sector Finance – October 2010 – ONS
- Provisional Estimates of Broad Money (M4) and Credit (M4 Lending) – Bank of England
- Monthly Industrial Trends Survey – CBI
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