Image Credit: Image by BP, copyright BP plc. High-res version available here.
More here from the Houston Chronicle and the BBC.
Cause not yet known, but given that Transocean say the rig was drilling then I can only assume there's been a blowout. Another possibility may be a problem during testing, though that wouldn't really fit with the 'drilling' statement.
Estimates of 11 to 15 people missing, which would be more than just the drillfloor crew.
SW10
Other resources
Edit: Dedicated response website available here: http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
Edit: An thread dedicated to the investment implications of this event has been created here (BP: A crisis-play?)
Edit: BP's ROV cams assembled on a single page, thanks to Mr.Contrarian and his www.freesharedata.com site.
Filed Under: Gulf Of Mexico, Drilling, Accident Repair, Transocean, Blowout, Deepwater Horizon, Spill,
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Actually I thought while detached it had some capacity to store oil but I guess not for long and I might have got this wrong . Not sure when first cap attempt is due can't be long now.
Looks like Transocean are trying to draw some of Obama's fire ;-)
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article216465.ece
BP's CDS have climbed to 240bps, according to DJ (which is a record high). That is a bit troubling but, I guess, not altogether surprising as credit analysts have to factor in a finite probability of a default by BP on its bonds. 240bps implies they're assigning a 16% probability of a default within the next 5 years (also according to DJ).
BP's live video is currently showing operations to remove the damaged riser in real-time. Looks to me like the shearing tool is poised just above the riser at present, being slowly manoeuvred into position. Once the portion of the riser that has fallen to the seafloor has been sheared off, a diamond saw will be used to make a second clean cut immediately above the BOP. Whilst these operations are taking place, the portion of the old riser that is to be removed is held in place by an arrangement of slings, to minimise the risk of further damage. Once removed, the LMRP cap will be sealed to the top of the clean cut, to divert the flow of hydrocarbons to a surface vessel.
All these operations are being co-ordinated by a collection of ROVs, with the cutting tools being actuated & operated directly from the surface.
Cheers,
Mark
Hi folks,
Super busy at the moment so I've not been following the story too closely of late.
The criminal investigation was always on the cards. When people die it would be incredible if there wasn't a prosecution. This news was 100% expected.
Failure of the so-called 'top kill' was disappointing to BP, no doubt, but I think the price is now sufficiently depressed to offer some real value in the longer term, so I've started buying lately, picking up a large slug today.
Personally, I think the BP response to the incident was as good as could have been expected under the circumstances. Of course it is easy for politicians to criticise and condemn, but I can't see what more could have been done in the days and weeks following the incident. As has been stated many times before, it's the failure of the BOP that is completely indefensible in this case, and we won't find out who is liable for those failings until the item itself is recovered from the sea bed and examined on the beach. By then what I consider to be the market over-reaction will be ironed out. Fundamentally, my position is little changed from the earlier stages of this thread;
...maybe scapegoat is too strong, but I do think the media coverage and political response has been very unfair. Whether the inequity continues in the longer term I don't think anyone can know. All I do know is that I want to be holding BP shares when the relief well confirms the leak has stopped, and with a longer term view the income potential is vast...probably.
Cheers,
Ignatius
Must just say that the pictures now coming from the live feed are stunning. The first phase of operations appears to have been completed successfully, with the portion of the riser that was on the seabed having been sheared off.
We can now see the diamond saw currently slicing through the riser above the BOP - a truly scary yet amazing operation to my inexpert eye. As would be expected, oil is escaping from the cut. I guess that BP may have an ROV propeller trained on the scene to "blow" the oil away & prevent it obscuring the view of the operator. Looks to be proceeding to plan AFAICS. Quite incredible to see all this broadcast live. Here's a snapshot:
AIUI the saw is behind the riser and moving towards the viewer.
Cheers.
Mark
In reply to marben100, post #288
DJ now reporting that Transocean's CDSs stand at 425bps (4.25% pa) + 350bps upfront payment.
Make up your own mind and stop asking daft questions of me.
My mind is already made up. I think Marben will do quite well from his Investments :-)
But seeing as though your one of the very few to pose sensible thoughts I was interested in your views. Apologies for the 'daft' questions, but there are a lot of daft articles written out there!
Hope you and the rest of the guys here are enjoying the good weather. World Cup soon! :-D
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-02/bp-should-suspend-annual-dividend-u-s-senators-say-update1-.html
Frankly the right honourable senator should keep his nose out. What business is it of his particularly given that it very much seems that BP is being scapegoated. Transocean is where the real focus should be imv in terms of their ability to make the inevitable payments arising from the clean up/civil actions etc etc.
Perhaps the honourable senator would like to call on Transocean, given that not only is it their rig, and their responsibility for apparent poor maintenace of the the equipment, but it seems they are also trying to wriggle out of paying more than $27m!
Nice one Fangorn - they'd be the left-wing senators representing States directly affected by the spill, you know Oregon and New York bordering the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Pacific and the North Atlantic ;o)
Well, theyve now freed the saw overnight and progressing withthe LMRP installation.
In the market, the big concern today seems to be the idea that BP will give ground on the div suspension idea mooted by the Us senators (for one year).
There is a briefing by Tony Hayward tomorrow. Details below:
In reply to djpreston, post #295
I've managed to lose 1% of my portfolio on this, even using limited risk spreadbets. I'm out at the moment. Murphy's Law is strong in this one.
I've combined the 12 camera streams on one page:
http://www.freesharedata.com/bp-spill-cams
Note - ROV E-2 seems to be a delayed copy of ROV E-1 at the moment
http://www.investegate.co.uk/InvArticle.aspx?id=82429
Evolution seem to think they will suspend the divi too. Not going to be a happy chappy if they do - nor will many pension funds.
If BP is the only company pursed for billions of dollars then i'd expect BP to counter claim a significant amount from Transocean.Surely, when talking about existential threats to BP,of more concern is the one posed to Transocean?
I thought it might be useful to create a separate thread to discuss the investment case for BP, keeping this one for technical matters relating to the accident, so have done so here: http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/bp-crisis-play/42379
Please let me know (preferably on that thread!) whether you agree or not that it would be useful to separate the discussion. If the common view is that people prefer it all in one place, I will close the other thread.
Regards,
Mark
Mr C over on TMF has done his usual trick and come up with a fascinating site with all of the ROV cameras on one page.
May be a useful addition to the thread header?
http://www.freesharedata.com/bp-spill-cams
In reply to Fangorn, post #297
I think it would be good politics to suspend the divi for a year. They shouldn't give any more ammo to their enemies, and perhaps they'll get slightly more lenient treatment. I'm a BP holder myself.
Seems like things are progressing well witht he cap:
That sounds promising! Suttles has been pretty positive throughout this but he seems an honest guy. He is putting a positive spin on things as that is his job but he does seem to give pretty clear answers to questions and comes across as a decent guy.
Log
BP Investor briefing due shortly.
Could be quite interesting, especially against a background where the market is now looking somewhat nervous and weak ahead of the weekend.
http://dl.groovygecko.net/anon.groovy/clients/bp/ir/gomupdate/player_wm.html
Darron - can you get in? (I suspect there's bandwidth issues?)
Will try the phone number I think.....
So far, he's more or less read out the 2pm RNS
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201006041400071045N&fe=1