Valuation, sentiment, and SP direction

In reply to emptyend, post #380

Anyway - do have a stab at my size question. If they are right and can get it to flow then......  ;-)

Just back from the pub, so...

I'd guesstimate the size of the "inner fan" on slide 13 as being approx a 6km diam circle (using the scale on slide 11 of the 2010 half year's). That's an area of 28 million sq m. Assume 400m thick throughout gives 11bn cu m. Allow 30% porosity gives 3.3bn cu m of oil/gas. If it's oil then 1cu m = 6.3bbls. 

So that would give you 20bn bbls!

That assumes that the proosity is an even, or at least and average 30%, which may well be unrealisitic, that the structure is filled, ditto, and that it's filled with oil, ditto again. For it to be any use it also needs to be mobile.

Probably worth a stab though!

I get (using assumed figures and that early TGD was not easy to move/they had not figured out the solution the last time-- ie (pumps/artificial lift)):

OOIP(bbls)=(7758*7872000*.2*(1-.4))/1.05 equals 6979540114bbls

Assuming recovery at 9%equals 628158610bbls
628mmbbls recoverable.

I use 20% porosity water saturation 40% and Fvf of 1.05 .7758 is bbls in and acre ft, My acre ft is 7872000

However the devil is in the detail,and little detail has been released (ie TGT viscosity,API.Tan Sulphur etc,Pressure and any PVT data-hence my hammering recovery)

The recovery per well is key and drives the capex.

FH

In reply to flyinghorse, post #383

the devil is in the detail,and little detail has been released (ie TGT (sic)viscosity,API.Tan Sulphur etc,Pressure and any PVT data-hence my hammering recovery)

The recovery per well is key and drives the capex.

Yes indeed. TGT recovery factor has hitherto been assumed at around 32%, but the chances are that it will now be considered to be 40%+, given reservoir performance. And TGT oil is light (37-39 degrees on test) and premium quality (Minas+). But TGD oil (at least on the distal flanks) is much more like CNV oil, according to the RNS from TGD-1X:

SOCO International plc has reported that the second of two planned drill stem tests on the Te Giac Den ("TGD-1X-ST1") discovery well on Prospect "E" has recovered black oil, condensate and gas, indicating the presence of oil with similar qualities to that of the Ca Nu Vang Field, which will begin production later this month.

The well encountered approximately 120 meters of good oil and gas shows in a combined gross interval of 570 meters. Permeability and porosity were preserved and compared favorably with pre-drill estimates. The test was hampered by apparent limitations of the perforations, which had to penetrate two casing strings and associated cementing. Additionally, operational issues during both the drilling and testing of the well impacted on its ability to flow and accordingly there are no meaningful sustainable flow rates from either test.

....and that is confirmed by this quite interesting (though outdated) article here......which contains really quite an interesting section of commentary on TGD, illustrating that their fundamental view of the potential of TGD wasn't changed at all by the outcome at TGD-2X:

“Throughout the Cuu Long basin,” Story explains, “there is a very rich, thick D-shale that serves as a source and seal for the whole basin. Pre-drilling, the risk on this project was having early migration of hydrocarbons to preserve reservoir porosity during burial.

“Within the TGD structure, there are two different reservoirs above and below the volcanics separated by a volcanic interval. The reasons for our excitement are twofold: in the upper section, above the volcanics, we have black oil, with gas and condensate underneath. The hydrocarbons here are similar to those found in CNV. Beneath the volcanics, it is more like the gas-condensate present in Su Tu Trang.”

Reservoir quality was poor as the well approached the sealing point in the structure, Story adds. “There appears to be a stratigraphic element, with a sedimentary fan thickening to the north towards the TGT structure – it is hugely exciting.” He cites as analogies Buzzard and Jubilee in the UK North Sea and offshore Ghana, both stratigraphic fans which were not immediately obvious on seismic.

“Downdip to the crest, these fan sediments thicken quite quickly. We know that the interval above the volcanics has a) black oil, b) plenty of pressure, and c) adequate reservoir properties for a very acceptable flow rate from wells. So in that one area, we have identified three different geological plays: on top, supra-volcanics, in the middle, sub-volcanics, and below that, basement.

“This year, following award of the appraisal area, we will apply pre-stack depth migration to the existing 3D seismic to better image the fan channel system. Then we plan to drill a well to test as much as we can the fan structure to the north, and to confirm the interval above the volcanics, but in a more user-friendly environment – without the pressure gradients of the previous wells.

“The structural setting on TGD indicates a potentially vast reservoir, but we need to prove continuity of the fan system. What we learn on TGD could also have a big impact on the TGT development.”

Worth noting (in confirmation of MadDutch's hypothesis) that they think oil will be lighter and reservoir better in the "inner fan" than on the flanks.....though this is all still very early days in interpreting/planning.

ee

Buybacks resumed today

Slightly different tactics this time, I suspect.......  ;-)

Interesting thanks,

I wonder if the following had anything to do with the timing of the buy back :

Resolution 17: Authority for the Company to Buy Back Shares
This resolution will give the Company authority to purchase its own shares in the market up to a limit of approximately 10 per cent. of its issued ordinary share capital at 13 March 2012, the latest practicable date prior to the publication of the Notice of Meeting. The maximum and minimum prices are stated in the resolution. Your Directors believe that it is advantageous for the Company to have this flexibility to make market purchases of its own shares. Your Directors will exercise this authority
only if they are satisfied that a purchase would result in an increase in expected earnings per share and would be in the interests of shareholders generally. The Company will consider holding repurchased shares pursuant to the authority conferred by this resolution as treasury shares. This would give the Company the ability to re-issue treasury shares quickly and cost effectively and would provide the Company with additional flexibility in the management of its capital base. Any issues of treasury shares for the purposes of the Company’s employee share schemes will be made within the 10 per cent. anti-dilution limit set by the ABI.
As at 13 March 2012, the total number of options over ordinary shares of £0.05 each that were outstanding under all of the Company’s share option plans was 720,000, which if exercised would represent 0.21 per cent. of the Company’s issued share capital at that date (excluding treasury shares). If the Company were to purchase its own shares to the fullest possible extent of its authorities (both existing and being sought) from shareholders, this number of outstanding options could potentially represent 0.27 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company (excluding treasury shares).

http://www.socointernational.com/tmp_downloads/e138z88u145n123a68m27q108x73v116w79z31d61c60c133t51/2012-soco-circular-and-nom.pdf

In reply to Isaac, post #386

Of course it didn't!!

The last AGM gave them a buyback authority that ran up to the 2012 AGM, so delaying the buyback until today makes virtually no difference to the maths......

.....though of course they could now theoretically buy back up to about 18%+ of the shares in the next few months, using a combination of last year's resolution and the one now framed for June -assuming that one passes.  That would "do wonders" for the free float  ;-)

SOCO International (LON:SIA) off 5% this morning...anything to be aware of? Can't see anything relevant other than notification of the AR (but been out for days!) and resumption of buy backs (which I take to be very positive, even more so after this drop).

More for me at 271p.

JS123

I suspect that restarting the buy back means no takeover imminent but as ee says it won't take long to do one where management and large shareholders control so many shares.

It is a double edged sword really because the company have shown willing to buy back shares up to around 315p so on that basis I've bought a chunk more at 272p and will offload them when we get back over 300p. I think trading around a core holding is the key here as there doesn't seem a lot of risk buying below 300p with the share buy back in place and TGT doing well geologically speaking.

Log

In reply to loglorry, post #389

Actually they have never paid more than 307p.....so far.

Re the idea of "trading around a core" this is something I've done from time to time - but not in the last year. Ex-post one can see that it would have been very effective to continue doing that much more actively.....but I think it is a highly moot approach in current circumstances, certainly for me (though that does depend on the size of the "core" in relation to the trading positions).

This year's ISA allowance has just picked up SIA, I hope I have made a wise decision - initial surprise at price available and my overall holding is starting to look overweight, but I feel as comfortable as one can !

Reo

In reply to jseth123, post #388

Did Soco buy back shares this morning? Nice of they got some at 266p!

Maybe we will get a winge from "you know who" if they didn't!

MD

Surprising to see the shares bouncing back quiet this strongly after a largish fall on opening,
it will be interesting to see how many if any shares have been bought back today.

K

If I was a conspiracy theorist I'd say the broker doing the buy backs sold a few first thing to drop the price a bit and hit a few stops. If you look at the daily chart from time to time there is a bit of a sell off and the price drops a bit. I don't normally subscribe to these sorts of views but it looks to me that a broker is working a buy order. When stock seems a bit thin in the market they let some stock go to knock the price down a bit.

Pure speculation but I'm glad I picked up a few more at the open now.

Log

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201204171706085327B&fe=1

115k bought back today, I'm surprised it's not more to cause that turnaround, but the markets did strengthen on news of the spanish bond auction, so perhaps that was a factor too.

K

Log

Your not the only one who bought, I did too. It beats me why people pussy foot around about not catching the bottom, when a price of 270-280p was clearly acceptable and available for 2 hours.

I too am trading around the core but have no plans to offload the trade just yet.

What price would you sell your non-core position Isaac and why if you don't mind me asking?

In reply to loglorry, post #397

Good question. I'll be interested to see what the answers are for anyone who claims to be taking a trading position (yourself included ;-))......

I'll be out at 305p in the stock I bought at yesterdays lows based on the premise that the company seem willing to buy stock up to and slightly above this price. I'm going to keep my core position though regardless and wait to see what sort of bid they get or otherwise.

EDIT: Actually I just sold my trading position just under 300p I want to out for the day for a nice long bike ride so was attracted to banking a few profits now. I expect if the buyback is going today they'll rise a bit more but a profit is a profit and a trading position is just that :-)

Log

In reply to loglorry, post #399

....mmmm...interesting.

Not so much a trading position as a day-trading position.....

Well yes I suppose 2-day trading position because I bought them at yesterdays lows but I had a price target in mind and since they got there faster than expected I sold them. Not exactly day trading because I didn't expect a 10% jump in 2 days. Some of them I bought over a week ago too.

Log