Detailed discussion of Soco's assets should take place on other threads, but this thread is to discuss the latest valuations both by ourselves and analysts, sentiment (ie will the shares go nowhere because there's not much upcoming news) and likely moves in the share price in the next six months. How should the shares be valued? How reasonable is it that any drilling without a firm commitment further than several months away is ignored by the market?
I haven't seen many recent analysts' reports on Soco, but I have one from Cazenove with a core NAV of 1370p and no doubt considerable explo NAV on top of that. I imagine that's approximately concensus, but maybe with crude rising again these concensus NAV figures will start to rise. Has anyone any other recent broker estimates?
My view, as stated elsewhere, remains that in the absence of much to get the market excited the shares will wander aimlessly for the rest of 2009. I've previously guessed that if crude were $65 at Christmas 09, then Soco's SP would be somewhere near £13 then, and I'm still very happy with that guess. What does anyone else think?
Of course unexpected bids and other events may overtake this, but these sort of events may happen to any company, and perhaps Soco (where management seem unlikely to accept bids since they believe there is considerable value not recognised by the market) is one of the less likely companies to be affected by the unexpected. The key new news for Soco might be (a) a bid (IMO unlikely), (b) some sort of presentation by management of the drilling data they claim to have that demonstrates a significant strike has been made at E, currently ignored by the mkt, or (c) possibly hitting oil off the Congo.
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As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.
SOCO International plc is an international oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company has oil and gas interests in Vietnam, which includes Block 9-2 and Block 16-1; Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), which includes Marine XI Block and Marine XIV Block, the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa), consists of Nganzi block and Block V and Angola, which include Cabinda Onshore North Block. The Company's operations are located in South East Asia and Africa. It holds its interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), through its 85%-owned subsidiary, SOCO Exploration and Production Congo SA (SOCO EPC). It holds its interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa) through its 85%-owned subsidiary SOCO Exploration and Production DRC Sprl. The Company’s net entitlement volumes were approximately 15,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day. more »
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Slightly o/t and apologies for that...........but, in view of comparison earlier in this thread of Soco with Coastal, it's interesting (perhaps) that Coastal has just announced plans to buy back 5% of it's shares over the next 12 months. Another O&G company that thinks it's sp severely undervalued?
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=51474127&qm_symbol=CEN
redhill
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201205231704049813D
and todays scores on the doors 324,300
seem to be managing approx .1% of stock per day, which over time is going to get significant
another 338k bought back yesterday
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201205241745130833E&fe=1
I make that 1.88% of the equity, ticking up nicely, but not really significant in the great scheme of things
Friday 13 January, 2012
CLOSE PERIOD SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAMME - The Company intends to repurchase shares up to an equivalent value of £25 million during the period ending at the 2012 Annual General Meeting,
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201131644505684V
I have done the calculations of the repurchases we have done since that date :
So we have spent £12m of the £25m since the 13th Jan so we still have £13m of buy backs to go before the AGM on the 13th June i.e. 11 trading days.
The 4 week avg Soco volume is currently 820,000. Therefore we can now buy back a max of 410,000 shares daily.
410,000 * 11 trading days = £12.357m at the current average price of £2.74
i.e. we have plenty of cash in the kitty to keep buying back shedloads of shares between now and the AGM.
I suspect we will get a refill after the AGM.....Happy days :-)
In reply to Isaac, post #546
As ever, the focus is misplaced. I've emboldened an important word below:
That was what was said in January. I wouldn't be surprised if the precise nature of the intent has changed with the market circumstances. They have an authority to buy back up to 34mn shares before the AGM - but as things stand they look likely to buyback no more than 9mn (if the stick to the £25mn).
After the AGM, they will have a new authority to buy up to 34mn shares. They also have around $200mn in cash. Lets see what they plan to do with that!
ee
If you do the calculations, you will note that they physically can't buy more then 4.51m shares over the next 11 trading days on the basis the avg vol stays the same.
The only way round it is to do a deal with a third party rather then buying in the market...
In reply to Isaac, post #548
Not true, in fact. Far from it. However, I'd guess that other alternatives are quite unlikely, so no point in debating.
Marc Faber is saying 100% chance of a Global Recession starting in Q4 this year :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj8V0wxOIYI
Well Marc, let's hope Soco are smart enough to sell up before then.
In reply to Isaac, post #550
They/we were unlucky that it didn't quite come together in 2008, thanks to the speed of the financial collapse (and the oil price pullback etc). There would be no excuses this time for missing the window, if matters develop as Faber suggests (which actually is an expectation of near term rallies). Neither do I expect the window to be missed, given the advanced stage of deck-clearing that has now been achieved.
I've always found Faber has some interesting things to say, having met him once in HK many years ago. The interview is worth listening to as a whole, not least for the fact that the CNBC US-focused interviewers chose to focus on the "what a basket case Europe is" and completely ignored Faber's comments about the US having similar problems and the bigger risks being India/China growth.
As ever, the detailed path that the markets will take is completely a matter of guesswork.
ee
In reply to Isaac, post #546
For the record the buyback program started on 1/11/2011.
Since then the number of shares purchased is 6,323,704.
This equals 1.8576% of the shares in issue immediately before the first buyback purchase.
Total cost so far (excluding dealing charges) is £17,522,952.
Average price paid is 277.0995p.
Average number of shares purchased each purchase day is 129,055.
MT
In reply to mangotree, post #552
Mango + the 3 + rec'ers
Attention to detail. I was referring to the £25m pot that was set aside back in Jan for buy backs, therefore the buy backs prior to this date to work out approx what is left in the pot is irrelevant.
Thanks Mango,
The detail is that the measured buyback approach has added up to £17m net to the valuation of the company, buying what we believe to be £5-£6 worth of value for an average price of £2.77.
Sounds like a smart move on the part of the Directors - more than enough to cover their bonuses............
Should be worth a mention at the AGM?
fuiseog
In reply to fuiseog, post #554
For the record since the buyback program started on 1/11/2011, we have now bought back just over 2% of the shares in issue on 1/11/2011.
The numbers are:
Shares purchased: 6,827,331.
This equals 2.0056% of the shares in issue immediately before the first buyback purchase.
Total cost so far (excluding dealing charges) is £18,914,914.
Average price paid is 277.0470p.
Average number of shares purchased each purchase day is 133,869.
MT
I get slightly different figures.
7,127,331 treasury shares (110k held at start of buy-back)
Wt. Avg. 277.48p
Total £19,777,035
Avg re-purchased/day 131,988
In reply to adam, post #556
Here are my figures.
How do they compare to yours..?
Date Shares Price Cost
01/11/2011 42,500 298.3171 £126,789.77
17/11/2011 95,000 299.6936 £284,708.92
21/11/2011 100,000 291.9481 £291,948.10
22/11/2011 70,000 290.1930 £203,135.10
23/11/2011 85,000 284.2101 £241,578.59
24/11/2011 83,700 287.4610 £240,604.86
28/11/2011 90,000 288.4319 £259,588.71
29/11/2011 34,888 297.9608 £103,952.56
08/12/2011 59,936 297.1800 £178,117.80
09/12/2011 60,894 298.9104 £182,018.50
12/12/2011 35,000 291.5560 £102,044.60
13/12/2011 100,000 294.4391 £294,439.10
14/12/2011 100,000 289.9113 £289,911.30
15/12/2011 70,000 285.0247 £199,517.29
16/12/2011 100,000 287.6101 £287,610.10
19/12/2011 60,934 281.5851 £171,581.06
20/12/2011 100,000 286.5666 £286,566.60
03/01/2012 35,000 299.4705 £104,814.68
04/01/2012 65,000 297.9484 £193,666.46
05/01/2012 70,000 292.7747 £204,942.29
06/01/2012 80,000 288.3896 £230,711.68
09/01/2012 85,000 295.2509 £250,963.27
10/01/2012 85,000 297.5114 £252,884.69
11/01/2012 90,000 297.3122 £267,580.98
12/01/2012 65,000 295.0900 £191,808.50
16/01/2012 56,264 285.0053 £160,355.38
17/01/2012 85,000 289.0921 £245,728.29
18/01/2012 82,183 289.2144 £237,685.07
27/01/2012 40,000 290.0000 £116,000.00
30/01/2012 66,788 286.3292 £191,233.55
16/04/2012 200,000 286.9465 £573,893.00
17/04/2012 115,000 283.0219 £325,475.19
23/04/2012 80,926 289.1502 £233,997.69
03/05/2012 80,000 289.4259 £231,540.72
04/05/2012 157,000 281.5303 £442,002.57
08/05/2012 160,000 269.9340 £431,894.40
09/05/2012 145,000 261.9983 £379,897.54
10/05/2012 110,000 267.0000 £293,700.00
11/05/2012 170,000 266.0641 £452,308.97
14/05/2012 120,566 256.1874 £308,874.90
15/05/2012 350,000 268.8917 £941,120.95
16/05/2012 304,083 264.8739 £805,436.50
17/05/2012 204,090 266.2943 £543,480.04
18/05/2012 370,000 264.4017 £978,286.29
21/05/2012 267,000 263.7300 £704,159.10
22/05/2012 306,800 271.2200 £832,102.96
23/05/2012 324,300 263.4800 £854,465.64
24/05/2012 338,000 270.9836 £915,924.57
25/05/2012 327,852 268.9961 £881,909.09
28/05/2012 222,481 271.9868 £605,118.95
29/05/2012 281,146 279.8697 £786,842.47
Total Shares = 6,827,331
Total Cost = £18,914,914.32
It's actually ironically annoying that the price is going up as it means we are paying a higher price to buy back the shares and when we get to the Soco limit the buy backs will stop.
In reply to mangotree, post #557
Sorry about the formatting above.
It all went wrong.
Can anyone show me how to do it correctly..?
MT
Your data is missing the following entries
18/11/2011 100,000 347,500 299.4713 £299,471
25/11/2011 110,000 796,200 277.5911 £305,350
13/01/2012 90,000 2,272,852 292.5478 £263,293
When you add these in you will get the same result
In reply to adam, post #560
Thank you very much Adam.
You are correct.
So the figures up to and including 29/05/2012 are,
Shares purchased: 7,127,331.
This equals 2.0937% of the shares in issue immediately before the first buyback purchase.
Total cost so far (excluding dealing charges) is £19,783,028.
Average price paid is 277.5657p.
Average number of shares purchased each purchase day is 131,987.
Number of purchase days = 54.
MT
http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201205301734164632E
327k today , new total, 7,564,540
cheers k