Vietnam Assets

In reply to Isaac, post #66

Why does'nt management contract out another rig and just drill TGD-3X and then the fan structure now?

We're not in the 1800's gun boat era. Soco has to comply with the terms of its contract which doesn't allow them to do so.

I wonder what would happen if say Pontoil got annoyed of waiting and decided to make an exit

Well that supposes they've got the same mindset as you. Please be assured they haven't :-)

Issac,

I am no expert but takeover rules are complex, for example I understand that if you buy 30% of a listed company you are oblidged to bid for the whole company. I would have thought that if someone tried to build a stake that large in soco, it would soon become very obvious what was going on (they would have to issue rns's for example, and the price would get bid sky high, and the buyer would be left with a minority stake.

However having said that if I was considering a bid for soco in the future I would definitely start stakebuilding now, if only to make a few quid if I lost out to another bidder !

To be honest though, I'm more interested in the news from soco than in the speculation about the sale, just keep proving up the reserves, the share price will keep rising, people can top slice if they like or need to, or hold on to the big sale, as Ed said once, we'll all go home together !

cheers K

In reply to Isaac, post #52

Hi all, please keep the discussion on-topic. This thread was created to discuss the Vietnam assets and operational issues. If you'd like to discuss executive remuneration issues in depth, you are welcome to do so but - for the sake of good order - this should be done on a separate thread, as per rule 6 of the Posting Guidelines. Any further off-topic posts on this thread will be moderated. Thanks, M

Why would Soco accept an £8 bid next year?

If the two current wells come in as P50 I'm expecting £8 in a couple of weeks.

If the fault isn't sealing and the oil water contact isn't above the fan then lets face it the fan is massively derisked perhaps with a COS above 80%

JonnyT

In reply to jonnyt, post #70

Why would Soco accept an £8 bid next year?

Who is that directed at and which post and thread does it relate to?

I recall using £8 somewhere as a "plucked out of the air example", merely to indicate that at £8 the two EDs have got £187mn worth of shares.....

My actual expectations aren't a million miles from yours.

ee

Just saw the £8 figure when trawling through 30 plus posts, so a general comment not meant to offend anyone especially not my old mate emptyend!

In reply to jonnyt, post #72

Ok - understood. Perhaps trawl more frequently in future?  ;-)

cheers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uprjmoSMJ-o

...... well, it is the silly season


..........I'll get my coat

Who is that directed at and which post and thread does it relate to?

Do keep up ee!  Isaac pondered why a buyer doesn't offer Roger and Ed £8 to get control of their shares (I know...don't bother saying it..)

As for Isaac having multiple avatars.... he hasn't.  He's just got the two; the one you know, and the DVD.

Buffy

In reply to thebuffoon, post #75

Do keep up ee!  Isaac pondered why a buyer doesn't offer Roger and Ed £8 to get control of their shares

I think you are mixing me up with someone who might have taken such a post seriously enough to have actually read it.

I think you are mixing me up with someone who might have taken such a post seriously enough to have actually read it.

 You don't know what you're missing. Davjo wouldn't miss Isaac's posts. It keeps him young.

Anyway, far more importantly, I hear there are no setbacks so far on TGD. 

Buffy

As for Isaac having multiple avatars.... he hasn't.  He's just got the two; the one you know, and the DVD.

LOL - I did'nt get the joke at first but then the DVD Avatar clicked ............ It's quite amusing because I'm not a keen buyer of DVDs I think they are a waste of money as once I've seen a film why waste time watching it again?, but I actually went out my way and bought the Avatar DVD the day it was released!

David,

Well that supposes they've got the same mindset as you. Please be assured they haven't :-)

They clearly are in a much more privileged and informed position then I am...but IMO all it would take is them wanting to sell up then a deal CAN be done whether Cagle or Story like it or not.

I seriously hope a deal gets done in the next 6 months or so, In all honesty I just can't be bothered to wait another 2 years for the management to poke more wells.

When I bought 5 years ago I did'nt expect to be holding Soco 5 years later.

My problem is I don't get paid to wait.... Whereas the management does..I still can't believe we spent the last two years or so without a decent drill -It was 2 years of my life where I stopped myself from making money with my Soco stake. Heindsight is a wonderful thing..........Now if only I can improve my foresight.......

Well I spent the last two years looking at alternatives to Soco.

I did a little better than holding Soco but that was purely down to one stock GKP where I got a 15 bag on a smallish stake as I split my stake from Soco into multiple shares.

If I had got success with GKP I'd have massively under performed holding Soco.

However I do believe I got the timings right with Soco as I was 100% confident that there would be no sale without TGD being proven somewhat.

Now if we get back onto topic I've looked at the seismic interpretation of TGD and the Fan again. It's my view that the current well has to meet the P90 case to reduce the COS of the Fan if the fault ISNT a sealing fault. If it doesn't I personally think the Fan might not even be drilled as without a seal the oil / water contact would be above the fan.

This could mean a sale of Vietnam sooner than some people think.

JonnyT

Hi Isaac,

As a parent, I can assure you that fans have their uses - especially when on a car journey and the kids in the back are grumbling "Are we there yet ?".....

To which the traditional reply is "Not long to go now".

ATB

If I had sold out of Soco two years ago my money would have gone into other mid-cap Oilies. Their performance is as follows...

If only our foresight was as good as our hindsight, Wodders, this time next year we'd all be miw-yonaires.

A pity it ain't, innit?

...at the time I bought Tullow and Dana at their lows I'm pretty confident if I sold Soco at the time a large chunk of my money would have gone into these.

But for Dana, before the recent bid, you might well have been a bit disgruntled about the languishing SP, remuneration of TC etc.

In the mean time Soco is still 30% below its peak. Soco management still took decent bonuses and salaries the last two years. Soco management keeps telling us next year for the next Vietnam well. Cagle/Story

I can't help thinking that I've read posts of yours, praising the management of SOCO compared with that of Aminex. Maybe that was longer ago than I thought.

As you say:

When you compare apples with apples the picture looks very different to the one you illustrate.

Quite so.

Why did YOU waste 2009 without a drill?

They were most probably playing poker, boozing, chasing women etc, you know what these oilmen are like.

There are parts of me that hope TGD fails, then we can sell Vietnam and forget about next years Soco Vietnam.

(Splutter! Good job I'd finished my tea.) Pardon? Do you think it would be worth more or less in that scenario?

A pity about the first go at it. I for one would have been vastly better off, but stuff happens.

Nothing to stop you selling out anyway, if you feel you have identified better prospects elsewhere, and if TGD did fail you could even get back in at a lower price. Given the remarkably high COS, I think I'll risk staying put though.

Hi Isaac,

A case, methinks, of "to speak is silver, but silence is golden".


So let's all hope for lots of silence .............followed by lots of gold !


ATB