The past few weeks have seen economic data and news flow playing out across the markets each week. If 2009 was all about banks, then 2010 is panning out to be all about countries, or more specifically the amount of sovereign debt and the associated fears of potential default.
Taking centre stage at present is Greece, but waiting in the wings are Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. The current issues in Greece and the implications across the wider European Union are making an understandably uncertain market even more nervous. Monetary policy decisions are likely to be a constant worry for investors throughout the year.
The unprecedented, co-ordinated actions of Central Banks across the world successfully averted a full blown economic crisis in 2009, but now the focus is on how the stimulus packages employed are unwound. China began the process by reining in bank lending in January. Its decision surprised markets and sparked a sell-off. A second announcement in February elicited a more benign market response. Markets do not like surprises and so Governments across the world will need to be cautious and considered in their approach to removing support and dealing with their mounting debt burden.
As corporate earnings season drew to a close, the general trend was one of positive surprises, driven by top sales growth rather than cost cutting like last quarter. Markets reacted on a stock specific basis rather than to the overall trend, most notably with the positive reaction to Barclays' profit announcement.
About the Author's Fund Management
Octopus Investments is an investment company with a difference. We listen to our customers and design products that really meet their needs. Then we work to make the investment experience simple and clear for investors and advisers. We never forget it's your money we manage. We're an award-winning, market-leading company…...read more
Lothar is head of the multi manager team at Octopus. He is a director of Octopus Investments and specialises in quantitative analysis and investment product design and management. Prior to joining Octopus, Lothar held senior positions with Commerzbank Asset Managemen…
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