Occupation: Company Director, Consultant, Market Professional, Private Investor
Interests: Asian Markets, Bonds, Commodities, Derivatives, Economics, Emerging Markets, European Markets, Forex, Funds, Geopolitics, Hedge Funds, Interest Rates, International Stocks, Oil, Private Equity, Stocks
About Me:
I spent 20 years working in and around the City, before becoming fully-focused on investment on my own account. I've always paid most attention to "big picture" issues and LTBH investments rather than trading - which is why I am heavily focused on the oil sector (especially stocks which have positions that are attractive for strategically-driven M&A)
Top-down, strategic LTBH
Results here: The Directors are not recommending a payment of a dividend in respect of 2012 (2011 - nil). However, the Board expects to recommend a sustainable return of capital to shareholders during 2013, the level of which will be determined pending Hoang Long and Hoan Vu Joint Operating Companies' (HLHVJOC) approvals of a 2013 Work Programme and Budget for CNV and TGT and incorporating…
The results are due on 22nd August, FYI. I've started this thread to centralise comment on expectations and the eventual outcomes. These might be the most pivotal results in the company's history, though IMO much hangs on whether they include a reserves update with or before the results. They certainly COULD make such an update IMO....but whether they will do so may be a slightly…
I'll just start by saying that I was over-optimistic for the 2011 financials, with the out-turn numbers coming within the range of analysts' estimates at:Revenue $234.2mn, EPS 26.2 cents - with entitlements production currently at 17,300 bopd. Production and revenue were lower than I'd hoped but were above consensus, whereas EPS was pretty well on consensus.Moving through the results announcement: Phase II development drilling on…
Interesting piece in the FT today about the dramatic move of the WTI curve from contango into backwardation in recent days: for the first time since the start of the global financial crisis in September 2008 the cost of WTI crude for immediate delivery is higher than forward contracts. The downward slope of the price curve is known in the industry’s jargon as “backwardation” and…
Someone asked on ADVFN when the interims were due, but they haven't bothered to find out....so I'll confirm the date here instead. The interims are due on 24th August. Before then we can expect news of first oil. TGT remains on track (and, as noted in another thread, the first two cargoes have been sold), so first oil news should emerge either next Friday or,…
Any news on monetisation of CNV byproducts ? I thought this was 'close to resolution' a few months ago.... Still close, I understand....but with only some technical dotting of i's required. I believe the important bits (eg price) are settled. I'm not sure whether this will address prior production though - perhaps that may be subject to another round of negotiations? That should be a…
I have to say I'm rather hoping that the H5 drill leads to a requirement for considerable capex! A tie in to Bach Ho, or even a 2nd FPSO. Clearly either of those will improve the long term flows of excess cash, but they would also tend to reduce them in the short term. Yes - though IMO a firm plan to expand capacity would…
All fair comment. I'm told that the story is a bit further on than that in that (allegedly) the money is in place and will be forthcoming..... but obviously there is that rather awkward matter of actually managing to cough up. Caveat vendor seems prudent in such circs.... Obviously if the cash isn't paid over as drilling nears then at some point all bets will…
while there isn't anything bad in todays ims, except the sale of cabinda not going through, I'm a little surprised by how positively the market has taken this rns, especially as the analysts haven't been especially impressed so far. (btw, thanks to whoever gave me a negative for posting a link above, sorry I didn't have time to comment, but I won't bother next time),…
RBC comment: First Impression Production exceeding expectations: Output in the year to date has averaged 18,540boe/d, on a working interest basis; we are currently forecasting 18,000boe/d in H1/13. We note management reiterated that working interest and entitlement production volumes are the same (as reflected in our NAV and cash flow forecasts); confusion about this calculation drives variations in analysts' numbers. Cash-rich: Having redeemed the remaining…
