Real Name: Robert Newgrosh
Occupation: Analyst, Financial Trainer, Newsletter Writer, Private Investor
Interests: European Markets, Forex, Funds, Gold, Stocks, US Market
I've been a qualified technical analyst for over 20 years, and a trainer for 17, having run more than 500 seminars. My company, New Skills Ltd, was established in 1993, and has led the way in quality training in this field. In 2002, New Skills won the Shares Magazine "Best Training Company" award. I now focus on 1 to 1 coaching in technical analysis, particularly Point & Figure technique, which is the primary method I use for my forecasts.
For the last four years I've been writing market columns every four weeks, and I'm pleased to say these have achieved a very high accuracy, quite possibly the most accurate in the UK having called all the major stockmarket moves, including the current bull market from May 2009.
You can see a list of the highlights below, and this also includes other forecasts that I've made going back to 2003. My reports will now appear on Stockopedia, and I will be very pleased to answer your questions on my methods, or other technical analysis techniques.
The primary chart type that I use is Point & Figure. Over 20 years in the business has convinced me that this is the most powerful charting method, and I've seen most of them. Naturally I use other techniques as well - bar charts and a few indicators - but the first thing I look at each day is the P&F chart. I would say that my success in calling the major moves is mainly due to having very good Point & Figure technique; without it I would not have been able to make most of those forecasts.
There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that the correct use of charts in the last few years has been the most accurate way to call the medium-term moves in the key stockmarkets. I don't tend to use fundamentals - to be honest I think my track record is far better than those who do. Often the fundamentals just get in the way and confuse things. I know lots of people who won't go into the market at the moment because they think the fundamentals are still poor. I can tell you that by the time they like the look of the fundamentals, they will have missed a large part of the move. My best ever trade, which captured 5,600 points on the Nikkei a few years ago, was made when the fundamentals were still ambivalent. However, the chart was superb and I backed it and did very well indeed. If I'd listened to the fundamentals and the economists, I'd never have taken the trade, which by the way used a fund within my personal pension.
But of course I don't always get it right, and it's much easier to say what a market will do than when. This means I'm more likely to be wrong when trying to make short-term forecasts. So I try to avoid the short-term and stick to medium-term views where my accuracy is much higher.
I also focus very much on the bigger picture which is invaluable for putting corrections into context. Often a bull market will have sharp but not severe corrections, i.e. fast but limited in size, and these can feel scary when they are happening. The only way to keep your perspective here is to look at the move in the context of the bigger picture and see if the overall trend has been broken. You can't do this if you focus purely on the immediate short-term movement. Stepping back and seeing corrective moves in context is a key skill, and there nothing better than a Point & Figure chart for doing this.
My focus in the reports will be the key markets, especially the main UK & US stockmarket indices. Quite simply, if you can get the direction of these right, you've got the direction of most shares right.
2003 Robert Newgrosh calls the bottom of the UK bear market more accurately than any competitor using a rare bar chart signal. 2004 He closes a trade which captures a move of 2,400pts on the Dow using pattern recognition on a Point & Figure chart. 2005 An incredible 5,600pt move is captured on the Nikkei, again using Point & Figure. 2006 Robert Newgrosh calls the all-time high on the Dow months in advance and contrary to nearly all other commentators. 2007 A 2,300pt move is captured on the Dow, again with Point & Figure. In just three trades, over 10,000 points have been captured. 2008 Robert Newgrosh calls the start of the bear market way ahead of other commentators in his monthly market report on 16 Jan with the FTSE100 at 6200 and the Dow at 12600. 2009 Robert Newgrosh calls the start of the new bull market on 15 May with the FTSE100 at 4348 and the Dow at 8268. 2010 Robert Newgrosh maintains a bullish stance throughout the year contrary to nearly all other commentators. You can see details of his training courses at http://www.new-skills.co.uk, and the full monthly track record, including charts, from October 2006 to May 2010 at http://trade.server17.co.uk/Reports Recent reports are archived on stockopedia.
Web Address: http://www.new-skills.co.uk/
Tel: 0161 428 1069
As regular readers will know, I've maintained a bullish stance overall on the key indices throughout 2010, and we've been rewarded with further gains since my last report. Last time, the Dow stood at 11118, and it has climbed to 11382 - very nearly the highest level for the year. The FTSE100 has also advanced from 5675 to 5745 since my last report. Interestingly, for…
The bull market - called in these reports in May 2009 - continues, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising to 11118, up from 10829 in my last report four weeks ago. Likewise, the FTSE 100 has risen to 5675, up from 5592. Neither market shows any sign of a reversal, nor are they overbought, having made small corrections recently which has brought the 7…
US and UK indices have continued to push ahead since my last report four weeks ago, with the Dow climbing to 10829, up from 10447, and the FTSE100 rising to 5592, up from 5428.Although the indices have risen, they are still inside those multi-month ranges which I talked about last time. Obviously however, they are now closer to breaking out, and the index that looks…
Unusually, the key US and UK indices have diverged since my last report, with the Dow falling slightly from 10653 to 10447, while the FTSE100 has risen from 5332 to 5428. I'm not reading anything into this - the key is the overall picture not small short-term variations. Last month I said: "For the first time in a number of months, there's some clarity following…
UK and US indices have rallied strongly since my last report, with the Dow climbing to 10653 from 10198, and FTSE100 rising to 5332, up from 5132. For the first time in a number of months, there's some clarity following what has been a very tricky period analytically. Both charts now have re-established the overall uptrends which began in March 2009, and I think it's…
"The bull market is built on sand.... Enjoy the suspension of reality while it lasts" emptyend 18 March 2010I am.
"The bull market is built on sand" emptyend 18 March 2010Sandcastles in the sky?
I simply do not understand any of these comments. I publish every four weeks and have done so for four years, and do not "pop up at opportune times" This time, I had to delay the report for reasons that had nothing to do with the level of the markets. The entire four-year history of the reports is available for anyone to view. Highlights are…
I predict you will address me more courteously in 2011 if you want a reply.
Of course you can trade indices within a SIPP, although my pension fund isn't structured as a SIPP.