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re. The Greek Crisis: What are the lessons of history?

dodge1664 — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 12:13:12 +0100

dodge1664 posted:
Michael Pettis is one of my favourite bloggers. Unlike most Wall Street strategists, he's realistic about the current situation, and yet doesn't resort to the kind of apocalyptic language you find elsewhere on the web. What I'd like to hear though is some explanation of how in practical terms its possible for Greece to leave the Euro. It would have to be announced in advance in order to allow businesses to prepare, and yet everyone would know full well that the new Drachma would plummet in value. So anyone with...

re. The Greek Crisis: What are the lessons of history?

emptyend — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 09:14:01 +0100

emptyend posted:
So we are condemned to spend much of the next decade postponing a resolution of the crisis while banks rebuild their capital base. Until they do, we will all pretend that Greece isn't insolvent and that other European countries will not face a crisis. Meanwhile none of these countries will be able to grow. The best recent lesson in this respect is from Japan. They had a decade of rampant growth and asset price inflation through the 1980s - and spent the 1990s (++) working throulgh the piles...

re. The Greek Crisis: What are the lessons of history?

John Bentin — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 08:26:57 +0100

John Bentin posted:
A lucid exposition

The Greek Crisis: What are the lessons of history?

Michael Pettis — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 19:09:24 +0100

Michael Pettis published:
With the PBoC's currency announcement on Saturday and the surge (!) in the value of RMB last Monday (all very kindly timed to add zest to my meetings last week in Boston, New York, and Washington), you would assume that this entry would be all about the RMB and the effect of the PBoC announcement. But aside from a brief aside to say that I am a little skeptical that this announcement adds up to much beyond a desire to head off China-bashing at the G20 meeting – bad news...

The Absolute Return Letter - The European Disease

Niels Jensen — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 12:55:52 +0100

Niels Jensen published:
“You cannot turn a pig’s ear into a silk purse, and there is no point in pretending that an economy like that of Greece could somehow become a mini-Germany ”with appropriate resolve and discipline”. And frankly, why should Greece wish to do so? From this standpoint, a mistake was made by admitting into the EMU certain nations who never should have joined the currency union in their current state. Greece was a salient example.”Woody Brock The last weekend in May took me to Reykjavik for the first time...

re. Six Impossible Things

absurdh — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 17:05:45 +0100

absurdh posted:
very interesting article - it makes very clear the importance and the pain of deficit reduction, which can be substancial. In regard to Greece, the vicious spiral it seems to me is not a forgone conclusion. And that Greece will default (or implemet 'haircuts')is not inevitable, i think for two reasons. One, ECB has brought breathing space for EU countries - in other words they have the opportunity to reduce their deficit over a longer period of time than otherwiese, therefore, giving time for economy to adjust as a result this...

Six Impossible Things

John Mauldin — Sun, 30 May 2010 20:05:18 +0100

John Mauldin published:
Alice laughed. quot;There's no use trying,quot; she saidquot; One can't believe impossible things.quot; quot;I daresay you haven't had much practice,quot; said the Queen. quot;When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.quot; - From Through the Looking Glass by Lewis Carroll Economists and policy makers seem to want to believe impossible things in regards to the current debt crisis percolating throughout the world. And believing in them, they are adopting policies that will result in, well, tragedy....

What would a German exit or Greek expulsion mean for the Eurozone?

John Mauldin — Fri, 21 May 2010 11:08:45 +0100

John Mauldin published:
The cause célèbre these days is the potential reconstitution of the eurozone: ie, Germany leaving it, or Greece getting kicked out. To look a little deeper, today I'm sending you STRATFOR's take on these two scenarios. STRATFOR explores the geography of the continent and the historical context of the EU to understand what a German exit or a Greek expulsion might mean for the rest of the region. After you read the article, sign up here to receive more STRATFOR global intelligence reports like this one. John Mauldin, Editor, Outside the...

Thoughts from the Front Line: Europe Throws a Hail Mary Pass

John Mauldin — Sat, 15 May 2010 17:04:00 +0100

John Mauldin published:
Europe Throws a Hail Mary Pass It's More Than Just Government Debt The Grand Misallocation New York, LA, and Italy In a 1975 playoff game, the Dallas Cowboys were nearly out of time and facing elimination from the playoffs, down 14-10 against a very good Minnesota Vikings team. The Cowboys future Hall of Fame quarterback Roger Staubach had no very good options. He later said he dropped back to pass, closed his eyes and, as a good...

Alford: EU Shock and Awe Rescue Package Violates the Powell Doctrine

Yves Smith — Tue, 11 May 2010 09:50:12 +0100

Yves Smith published:
By Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed. Since then, he has worked in the financial industry as a trading floor economist and strategist on both the sell side and the buy side. The EU, IMF and friends have rolled out the shock-and-awe bailout package for Greece and the Euro. This package supersedes earlier packages and has already generated a significant volume of comment and criticism. The financial markets were awed, but political foundation is showing cracks, i.e. the German election results and the earlier...