UK Data
A momentum screen based on buying stocks with rising analyst earnings estimate revisions in light of empirical findings that stocks with their estimates revised often outperform the market over at least the next 12 months. Although investing on the basis of broker recommendations alone does not appear to be a successful strategy because of the bias in those recommendations, research suggests that focusing on recent changes in broker recommendations is more fruitful, particularly in combination with other signals. You can read more here. more »
This is a combined value/momentum screen loosely based on the AAII "Value on the Move" screen and Jack Hough's "Impatient Value" screen in "Your Next Great Stock". It tries to uncover stocks that are bargain priced but avoid "value trap" stocks, which may languish for years until the market recognizes their “true” worth. Value and momentum investing styles might seem to have little in common but, in fact, research also indicates that momentum can be a catalyst to value. The screen looks for two attributes: A share price within 10% cent of its 52-week high (the momentum part of the equation), and a PEG ratio – price-earnings to growth – of less than 1.5 (the value part). The PEG ratio is simply the forward price-to-earnings multiple divided by the projected growth rate in earnings. more »
An investing screen based on buying stocks that are close to their 52 week high (and/or selling stocks that are close to their 52 week lows). Similar to other forms of momentum investing, this seems to work because investors tend to under-react to positive (or negative) information about those kinds of stocks. Researchers surmise that investors use the 52- week high as an “anchor” against which they value stocks, thus they tend to be reluctant to buy a stock as it nears this point regardless of new positive information. As a result, investors underreact when stock prices approach the 52-week high, and consequently, contrary to most investors' expectations, stocks near their 52-week highs tend to be systematically undervalued. Finally, when information prevails and the 52 week high is broken, the market “wakes up” and prices see excess gains. You can read more here. more »
This screen is based on the momentum-focused approach of Richard Driehaus, a mutual fund guru who was named to Barron’s “All-Century” team of the 25 most influential and powerful mutual fund managers in 2000. It focuses on companies with momentum in earnings and prices, particularly small- to mid-cap companies with strong, sustained earnings growth that have had “significant” earnings surprises. At the core of his strategy are earnings surprises. Companies with positive earnings surprises are buys and negatives are sells. It also values surprises in which the range or standard deviation of estimates is tighter, which has a more significant impact on subsequent returns. This strategy looks for companies with positive price momentum over the last four weeks and also considers how stocks do on a relative basis versus the S&P 500. Driehaus prefer small to mid cap stocks. The investor may also wish to monitor liquidity in terms of trading volume. more »
A momentum screen based on buying prior winning stocks and selling short prior losers based on the empirical observation that Investments exhibit persistence in their relative performance. Buying winners inherently conflicts with the contrarian philosophy that is part and parcel of many successful investors. Nevertheless, it has long been noted by traders that good performing investments tend to continue to do so, whereas those that have performed relatively poorly tend to continue on the same path. This screen looks for high relative strength in the last six to twelve months compared with the market (top 25%) - relative strength doesn't work over short timeframes, such as one month. It excludes the most illiquid stocks, i.e. the bottom 25% of stocks based on market capitalisation. You can read more here. more »
A value and momentum screen focused on finding under-valued, out-of-favor companies just at the point when the market is starting to recognise them. According to Lakonishok, investors have judgmental biases and behavioral weaknesses including the tendency to extrapolate the past too far into the future, to wrongly equate a good company with a good investment irrespective of price, to ignore statistical evidence and to develop a "mindset" about a company. As a result, "value stocks become underpriced and glamour stocks become overpriced relative to their fundamentals". This screen looks for: At least one of Price-to-book, price-to-cash-flow, price-earnings or price-to-sales ratios more favourable than the industry 6 Month relative strength above zero 3 month relative strength above zero EPS Surprise or a trending revision in the analyst consensus more »
This screen seeks to identify stocks that have experienced recent revisions in the earnings estimates. Specifically, it looks for stocks that have seen one analyst revision in the last week/month, to try to see if there is an analyst moving away from the consensus. This follows research that showed "bold" estimates like this have a significant impact on share price performance. Note: that this screen on its own isn't able to only pull back revisions that are "bold" (moving away from the consensus), as opposed to revisions that are "herding" (moving closer to the consensus). This will need to be done by analysing the actual list of companies produced in more detail. more »
Tiny Titans is a small/micro-cap strategy developed by O'Shaugnessy that includes both a value component and a momentum component. He suggested it for two reasons: i) Micro-cap stocks have little or no analyst coverage so are often overlooked or ignored, and ii) Micro-cap stocks have low correlation with the S&P 500 (0.66) so they can be included in a diversified investment strategy. It looks for a market cap of $25 to $250 million (£15 - 150m assumed), combined with a price to sales below 1 and is sorted by relative strength. See here for more details. more »
When companies report earnings significantly higher than analyst's earnings estimates the result is known as an 'earning's suprise'. While earnings surprises often create spikes in the share price on the day of the announcement, they have also been observed to trigger longer term increases in the share price. This effect is known as the "Post Earnings Announcement Drift" and can last for several weeks or even months after the announcement date. The effect is generally attributed to the fact that analysts are slow to revise their forecasts and the market does not fully react to the information about future growth conveyed by the earnings surprises. The idea behind the strategy is to buy stocks that report earnings surprises and hold them over this time period. Positive surprises often happen at the beginning of a turnaround, or a new growth cycle where sales start to accelerate beyond the historical rates, “surprising” the analyst community. You can read more here. more »
